Saratoga — Thu Jul 16, 2026

Saratoga · 9 races · published 10:12 AM ET · card locked

3 value plays today · 6 races we're passing

How this card is made & how to verify it

Edge Card v0 is a transparent heuristic, not a trained model: Prime-Power softmax blended 40/60 with the de-vigged morning line, plus a published rules-based pace adjustment. Constants on the methodology page. Structured analysis, not proven edge; tracked publicly either way.

Model v0-heuristic-1.1 · cfg c8795908 · code 02e4715c · takeout (SAR) win 16% / exacta 18.5% · card SHA-256 970405a28133… · Scratches as of 10:00 AM ET. Late scratches void at scoring; the card is never edited.

Flags 3 of 9 races

New here? How to read a flag

Model: Our estimated win chance for the horse.
Fair: The odds that chance implies — the price where a bet breaks even.
Board: The morning line, the track's early guess at the odds.
Play at X or better: Only bet if you can get that price or longer. The edge is in the price.
Pass: Most races. Our number agrees with the board, so there's nothing to bet.

Odds note: 7/2 is the same as +350.

Race 2 · 1 mile · dirt · Md Sp WtFlag

4IRISH GOODBYE

Model

Fair

Board

28%

5/2

7/2

our win %

break-even

the morning line

We flag it because the board (7/2) pays more than our fair price (5/2). Same horse, longer price.

The market

22%

Edge Card

28% +5 pts

▸ PLAY AT 7/2 OR BETTER

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend. Even pace

Data · Brisnet

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
4	IRISH GOODBYE ◀	28%	5/2	5/2
2	TERM PREMIUM	22%	7/2	2/1
6	IN FRONT RUNNER	12%	7/1	4/1
7	TUNING IN	11%	8/1	6/1
3	BUBSTER	10%	9/1	8/1
5	ROADIE	9%	10/1	6/1
1	BAKUTO	8%	12/1	15/1

Race 6 · 1 1/8 miles · dirt · Md Sp WtFlag

7JADORLINIJA

Model

Fair

Board

15%

11/2

8/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

We flag it because the board (8/1) pays more than our fair price (11/2). Same horse, longer price.

The market

11%

Edge Card

15% +4 pts

▸ PLAY AT 15/2 OR BETTER

Ranks #2 in our power figure blend; closer in a contested-pace setup. Contested pace likely (3 early-speed types)

Data · Brisnet

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
4	ATI GIRL	21%	7/2	5/2
6	PIPPA ADDS	17%	5/1	3/1
7	JADORLINIJA ◀	15%	11/2	6/1
5	MOONLIT	11%	8/1	9/2
8	RAGHBA	11%	8/1	6/1
3	FULL OF TACT	10%	9/1	15/1
1	MORNING MENACE	9%	10/1	6/1
2	PRAIRIE PRINCESS	6%	15/1	12/1

Race 7 · 1 1/16 miles · turf · Clm 35000n2lFlag

2ENGLISH LAW

Model

Fair

Board

18%

9/2

7/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

We flag it because the board (7/1) pays more than our fair price (9/2). Same horse, longer price.

The market

12%

Edge Card

18% +5 pts

▸ PLAY AT 6/1 OR BETTER

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend. Contested pace likely (5 early-speed types)

Data · Brisnet

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
2	ENGLISH LAW ◀	18%	9/2	7/2
13	I'M WORTHY	16%	11/2	2/1
7	CIRO DI MARZIO	14%	6/1	5/2
6	VINTAGE VINO	13%	13/2	4/1
8	SICILIAN DEFENSE	7%	12/1	9/2
12	CORVUS	6%	15/1	6/1
3	BOLD LOVE	6%	15/1	15/1
10	COACH CASE	6%	15/1	8/1
4	BLAME IT ON K J	4%	25/1	20/1
9	ROYAL BROWNE	3%	30/1	12/1
5	TAKE A STANCE	3%	30/1	15/1
11	CHIPS AND FISH	2%	50/1	30/1
1	ROSCOMMON	2%	50/1	30/1

Passes no bet — our number agrees with the market

R16FAMOUS FIGURE26%2/1

R35TIZMARKUS23%5/2

R410STREAM IT14%8/5

R53ALL STAR LEIGH12%7/2

R87PALACIOS21%5/2

R96ROASTED REDS13%3/1