Del Mar — Fri Jul 24, 2026

Del Mar · 8 races · published 10:12 AM ET · card locked

4 value plays today · 5 races we're passing

Edge of the Day

5CITY EXILE

Race 4 · 1 1/8 miles turf

35%model9/5fair7/2boardWINpaid at the close

Our biggest edge on the card today (+12 pts over the board) — the crowd will likely bet it down, so expect a shorter number — size it smaller. Chosen by rule: the flag with the most value, graded like any other.

Public record8–14flags, W–L+1.7uflat-$2+3.9%flat-bet ROI, n=22every call hash-stamped before post →

We lose most single flags — that’s expected. The edge is price: when we’re right, the board paid more than fair. Our 30% picks win about 30% (see the calibration curve), and every call is graded against the closing odds — wins and losses.

No set price. On the tote you’re paid the closing odds, so the edge isn’t a line you beat early — it’s the gap between our fair number and where the crowd lands. We grade each flag against the actual close.

Our last miss: DMR R8 Suntory Time, flagged at 6/1, didn’t win — on the record like every call.

Today at Del MarPartly Cloudy then Patchy Fog, 70°F, wind 0 to 5 mph · rain 1% — no off-track flagNWS forecast

How this card is made & how to verify it

Edge Card v0 is a transparent heuristic, not a trained model: Prime-Power softmax blended 65/35 with the de-vigged morning line, plus published rules-based pace and trainer-form adjustments (the trainer angle is used as a model input; the raw figure is never published). Constants on the methodology page. Structured analysis, not proven edge; tracked publicly either way.

It reads Brisnet figures, pace, and trainer form — not jockey, trip, or track bias yet; those arrive with the trained v1 model. The trainer angle is used as a model input only; we never publish the raw figure. Fair odds are 1 ÷ our win probability.

The hold/shorten read on each flag is an early signal from its committed board price — long-priced flags the crowd leaves alone tend to hold, short ones get bet down. It’s a heuristic on a small sample; every call is graded on the record.

Model v0-heuristic-1.4 · cfg aab788cb · code f93be1a6 · takeout (DMR) win 15.43% / exacta 22.68% · card SHA-256 7a988efd1ee5… · Scratches as of 10:00 AM ET. Late scratches void at scoring; the card is never edited.

Flags 4 of 8 races

New here? How to read a flag

Model: Our estimated win chance for the horse.
Fair: The odds that chance implies — the price where a bet breaks even.
Board: The morning line, the track's early guess at the odds.
Win bet: Bet the horse to win. Pari-mutuel pays the closing price no matter when you bet, so you're backing the horse, not a fixed price.
Hold / bet down: Whether the price should stay long or get bet down by post — how much of the edge is likely to survive.
The rest of the card: Most races. We still show our top pick and a read on it, but there's no overlay worth a bet.

Odds note: 7/2 is the same as +350.

Race 4 · 1 1/8 miles · turf · Clm 40000Flag

5CITY EXILE

Model

Fair

Board

35%

9/5

7/2

our win %

break-even

the morning line

We flag it because the board (7/2) pays more than our fair price (9/5). Same horse, longer price.

The market

23%

Edge Card

35% +12 pts

▸ WIN BET · #5 to win · our fair 9/5, paid at the close

Likely bet down A short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post — pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend. Even pace

Data · Brisnet

The model’s read ▾

This is the widest gap on today’s card. We make CITY EXILE a 35% shot in the 1 1/8 miles turf, where the morning line — take stripped out — sits near 23%. When our number is 12 points clear of the board, that disagreement is the whole reason to be here.

Our power-rating blend makes it the best of this field — which is why the board’s price looks a step generous.

To play it: a straight win bet on #5. Our fair is 9/5. On the tote you’re paid the closing price no matter when you bet, so you’re backing the horse, not a fixed price — the hold/shorten read above says how much of the edge is likely to survive to post.

Fair-value exotics ▾

Model-fair reference prices, not a +EV call. Exotics take ~20% off the top, so a pool is an overlay only when the tote's probable pays more than the fair return.

Ticket	Cost	Hit	Fair return	After ~20%
Key exacta #5 / #6, #8 anchor	$2.00	20.8%	$9.60	$7.68
Keyed trifecta #5 / #6, #8 / #6, #8, #2, #3 value	$3.00	14.1%	$21.32	$17.06

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
5	CITY EXILE ◀	35%	9/5	5/2
6	LORD BULLINGDON	26%	3/1	3/1
8	BARELY FUNTIONAL	12%	7/1	6/1
2	BALLADEER	7%	15/1	4/1
3	UNCLE HAPPY	6%	15/1	8/1
4	LAHAINA FLAVOR	6%	15/1	10/1
7	STAMP MY PASSPORT	5%	20/1	8/1
1	SMOOTH SALUTE	3%	30/1	20/1

Race 4 · 1 1/8 miles · turf · Clm 40000Flag

6LORD BULLINGDON

Model

Fair

Board

26%

3/1

4/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

We flag it because the board (4/1) pays more than our fair price (3/1). Same horse, longer price.

The market

20%

Edge Card

26% +6 pts

▸ WIN BET · #6 to win · our fair 3/1, paid at the close

Ranks #2 in our power figure blend. Even pace

Data · Brisnet

The model’s read ▾

We make LORD BULLINGDON a 26% chance in the 1 1/8 miles turf; the line implies about 20%, and that 6-point gap over the board is the flag.

It sits second on our power blend, close enough to the top that the price still looks generous.

To play it: a straight win bet on #6. Our fair is 3/1. On the tote you’re paid the closing price no matter when you bet, so you’re backing the horse, not a fixed price — the hold/shorten read above says how much of the edge is likely to survive to post.

Fair-value exotics ▾

Model-fair reference prices, not a +EV call. Exotics take ~20% off the top, so a pool is an overlay only when the tote's probable pays more than the fair return.

Ticket	Cost	Hit	Fair return	After ~20%
Key exacta #6 / #5, #8 value	$2.00	16.6%	$12.06	$9.65
Keyed trifecta #6 / #5, #8 / #5, #8, #2, #3 value	$3.00	11.3%	$26.61	$21.29

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
5	CITY EXILE	35%	9/5	5/2
6	LORD BULLINGDON ◀	26%	3/1	3/1
8	BARELY FUNTIONAL	12%	7/1	6/1
2	BALLADEER	7%	15/1	4/1
3	UNCLE HAPPY	6%	15/1	8/1
4	LAHAINA FLAVOR	6%	15/1	10/1
7	STAMP MY PASSPORT	5%	20/1	8/1
1	SMOOTH SALUTE	3%	30/1	20/1

Race 6 · 5 furlongs · turf · OClm 100000n2xFlag

6BAD UNCLE BARRY

Model

Fair

Board

21%

4/1

13/2

our win %

break-even

the morning line

We flag it because the board (13/2) pays more than our fair price (4/1). Same horse, longer price.

The market

13%

Edge Card

21% +7 pts

▸ WIN BET · #6 to win · our fair 4/1, paid at the close

Price may move A mid board price — it can hold or shorten into post. You are paid the closing price either way, so bet the horse and take the number you get.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend. Contested pace likely (6 early-speed types)

Data · Brisnet

The model’s read ▾

We make BAD UNCLE BARRY a 21% chance in the 5 furlongs turf; the line implies about 13%, and that 7-point gap over the board is the flag.

On the figures it’s the one we rate highest in here, so a longer price reads as the market underrating it.

The race sets up with contested early pace (6 speed types), and this one profiles to come from off it — we pushed its number up for that (×1.1).

To play it: a straight win bet on #6. Our fair is 4/1. On the tote you’re paid the closing price no matter when you bet, so you’re backing the horse, not a fixed price — the hold/shorten read above says how much of the edge is likely to survive to post.

Fair-value exotics ▾

Model-fair reference prices, not a +EV call. Exotics take ~20% off the top, so a pool is an overlay only when the tote's probable pays more than the fair return.

Ticket	Cost	Hit	Fair return	After ~20%
Key exacta #6 / #8, #7 value	$2.00	8.5%	$23.48	$18.78
Keyed trifecta #6 / #8, #7 / #8, #7, #1, #3 longshot	$3.00	5.6%	$53.59	$42.87

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
6	BAD UNCLE BARRY ◀	21%	4/1	5/1
8	LONESOME STEW	18%	9/2	5/1
7	IRISH ROYALTY	15%	11/2	7/2
1	VIRAT	14%	6/1	4/1
3	INCANTO	11%	8/1	6/1
2	THE OLD NINE	10%	9/1	15/1
5	ARRAKIS	7%	15/1	6/1
4	GABALDON	5%	20/1	6/1

Race 8 · 1 mile · turf · Md Sp WtFlag

9FLASH OF LIGHTNING

Model

Fair

Board

29%

5/2

9/2

our win %

break-even

the morning line

We flag it because the board (9/2) pays more than our fair price (5/2). Same horse, longer price.

The market

18%

Edge Card

29% +11 pts

▸ WIN BET · #9 to win · our fair 5/2, paid at the close

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend. Lone speed

Data · Brisnet

The model’s read ▾

FLASH OF LIGHTNING is one of the more likely winners we flag today — a 29% chance in the 1 mile turf the board still prices like a longer shot (about 18% once you strip the take). The gap is smaller in points (11) but it’s on a horse we genuinely rate to win.

It tops our power blend for the race; on the numbers it’s the most likely winner, whatever the odds say.

It profiles as lone speed, likely alone on the lead.

To play it: a straight win bet on #9. Our fair is 5/2. On the tote you’re paid the closing price no matter when you bet, so you’re backing the horse, not a fixed price — the hold/shorten read above says how much of the edge is likely to survive to post.

Fair-value exotics ▾

Model-fair reference prices, not a +EV call. Exotics take ~20% off the top, so a pool is an overlay only when the tote's probable pays more than the fair return.

Ticket	Cost	Hit	Fair return	After ~20%
Key exacta #9 / #4, #6 value	$2.00	9%	$22.23	$17.78
Keyed trifecta #9 / #4, #6 / #4, #6, #7, #8 longshot	$3.00	4.3%	$69.19	$55.35

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
9	FLASH OF LIGHTNING ◀	29%	5/2	7/2
4	GOING NOWHERE	13%	7/1	8/1
6	FEELING LUCKY	10%	9/1	5/1
7	BENNY'S PUZZLE	9%	10/1	4/1
8	HIGH KING	9%	10/1	12/1
10	ROYAL RUMOR	9%	10/1	8/1
5	BIG VENGEANCE	9%	11/1	6/1
2	HE'S PROOF OF JOY	7%	15/1	8/1
3	DOING TIME	4%	25/1	15/1
1	BELLO ROSSO	3%	30/1	20/1

Multi-race tickets the whole card, keyed on our reads

Late Pick 4 (R5–R8)

Build	Cost	Hit	Fair return	After ~20%
Conviction	$1.00	0.42%	$236.97	$189.58
R5 #7, #2 · R6 #6 · R7 #8 · R8 #9
Coverage	$4.00	1.41%	$284.44	$227.55
R5 #7, #2, #8, #9 · R6 #6 · R7 #8, #6 · R8 #9

Late Pick 5 (R4–R8)

Build	Cost	Hit	Fair return	After ~20%
Conviction	$1.00	0.11%	$917.05	$733.64
R4 #6 · R5 #7, #2 · R6 #6 · R7 #8 · R8 #9
Coverage	$4.00	0.36%	$1100.79	$880.63
R4 #6 · R5 #7, #2, #8, #9 · R6 #6 · R7 #8, #6 · R8 #9

Early Pick 5 (R1–R5)

Build	Cost	Hit	Fair return	After ~20%
Conviction	$2.00	0.1%	$1972.98	$1578.38
R1 #6 · R2 #4, #7 · R3 #4 · R4 #6 · R5 #7, #2
Coverage	$32.00	1.05%	$3041.96	$2433.57
R1 #6, #4 · R2 #4, #7, #2, #5 · R3 #4, #9 · R4 #6 · R5 #7, #2, #8, #9

Pick 6 (R3–R8)

Build	Cost	Hit	Fair return	After ~20%
Conviction	$0.40	0.02%	$1736.83	$1389.46
R3 #4 · R4 #6 · R5 #7, #2 · R6 #6 · R7 #8 · R8 #9
Coverage	$3.20	0.14%	$2320.50	$1856.40
R3 #4, #9 · R4 #6 · R5 #7, #2, #8, #9 · R6 #6 · R7 #8, #6 · R8 #9

Rolling Pick 3 (R4–R6)

Build	Cost	Hit	Fair return	After ~20%
Conviction	$1.00	1.55%	$64.34	$51.47
R4 #6 · R5 #7, #2 · R6 #6
Coverage	$2.00	2.78%	$72.07	$57.66
R4 #6 · R5 #7, #2, #8, #9 · R6 #6

Rolling Pick 3 (R6–R8)

Build	Cost	Hit	Fair return	After ~20%
Conviction	$0.50	1.46%	$34.36	$27.49
R6 #6 · R7 #8 · R8 #9
Coverage	$1.00	2.72%	$36.82	$29.46
R6 #6 · R7 #8, #6 · R8 #9

Whole-card tickets keyed on our reads — a tight conviction build and a wider coverage build, singling the flags and spreading the open races. Reference construction, not a +EV call: the hit % assumes the legs are independent (v0 doesn’t model pace or scratches across races), and only the flagged legs are graded bets.

The rest of the card our read on every race — analysis, not a bet

R1Chalk6WINSOR GEORGE19%9/27/2

No edge on our top pick — the market has it priced about right.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
6	WINSOR GEORGE	19%	9/2	7/2
4	BO DIDDLEY	14%	13/2	6/1
5	SMOKEM WICKED	14%	13/2	5/1
9	THE MOE SHOW	13%	7/1	4/1
3	JOLT OF JOY	9%	10/1	8/1
7	MO BAD	9%	11/1	8/1
8	CLUB FIGHTER	8%	11/1	8/1
10	HERE COMES TOO TOO	7%	12/1	10/1
2	CITY OF FORZA	4%	25/1	20/1
1	SIP SIP CHARLY	4%	25/1	20/1

R2Scramble4FIRST OR LAST17%9/27/2

Wide-open heat; no separation we'd trust.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
4	FIRST OR LAST	17%	9/2	7/2
7	HIGH SOCIETY U	17%	5/1	3/1
2	LITTLE OPAL	16%	5/1	4/1
5	TIZ ALLURING	14%	13/2	4/1
3	GREY MATTER	10%	9/1	12/1
6	BRAZORIA	9%	10/1	8/1
1	CHERRY CANDY	9%	11/1	8/1
8	DECISIVE DECEPTION	8%	12/1	15/1

R3Chalk4CRAZY CAMI21%7/23/1

No edge on our top pick — the market has it priced about right.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
4	CRAZY CAMI	21%	7/2	3/1
9	FIRE BAN	17%	5/1	6/1
7	INTERPLAY	13%	7/1	8/1
1	CHANNEL PLACE	12%	15/2	6/1
6	PHOTOGENIC	9%	10/1	7/2
8	TULAVIA'S WORLD	9%	11/1	10/1
3	MUSICAL SONG	8%	12/1	10/1
5	ANGEL BABY	7%	12/1	12/1
2	ALLIHIES	6%	15/1	8/1

R5Scramble7TIGHT DALLY16%5/13/1

Wide-open heat; no separation we'd trust.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
7	TIGHT DALLY	16%	5/1	3/1
2	HUNGOVER	13%	7/1	8/1
8	DUKE OF ORLEANS	12%	15/2	4/1
9	SUNK COST FALLACY	11%	8/1	6/1
5	HE'S GOT FIRE	10%	9/1	10/1
11	MY MAN JOE ROLDAN	10%	9/1	6/1
4	SMOKEM AND LOVE	9%	10/1	12/1
3	FIGHTING THUNDER	8%	12/1	10/1
1	READYTOBOARD	6%	15/1	12/1
6	MR AKIN	4%	25/1	20/1
10	WICKED SPUD	2%	50/1	30/1

R7Chalk8MOHAVEN25%3/18/5

No edge on our top pick — the market has it priced about right.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
8	MOHAVEN	25%	3/1	8/5
6	SHE'S NO QUANT	21%	7/2	3/1
11	LIBERATION	9%	10/1	8/1
5	TROISIEME ETOILE	8%	11/1	10/1
10	CECILIA STREET	7%	15/1	12/1
9	CHRISTA MCAULIFFE	5%	15/1	20/1
2	THE LOAN EXCHANGE	5%	20/1	20/1
3	LINO'S ANGEL	5%	20/1	15/1
4	DONTTELLMEWHATTODO	4%	20/1	15/1
12	TAKING A JOY RIDE	4%	25/1	20/1
1	TAPATIA MIA	4%	25/1	15/1
7	LYNDEE'S DREAM	3%	30/1	30/1