Saratoga & Del Mar · 2026 Meets · Model v0 · the anti-tout
Transparent model race-cards
Fair odds for every race — a call on each

A win probability and a fair price for every race we run.

Most races are a pass. We flag one only when our number beats the board.

Every real card looks like this
Race 5 · Saratoga · 1 1/16 mi · post 3:47Sample Flag
4Sample Runner
Model
27%
Fair
5/2 (3.5)
Board
9/2
Board 18%← our edge →Our 27%
▸ PLAY AT 7/2 OR BETTER
Edge +9 pts vs board · lone speed (+15% pace)
Timestamped 11:02a ET — before post · sample, not a live call

The record is the product

Opens with the first results post
Timestamped before post
Never edited — wins and losses alike
Public archive, permanent
DateTrack/RaceHorseModelFairPlay≥BoardCloseResult
The book opens with the first results post →

Why most races are a pass

A pick in every race sells action, not edge. We publish a flag only when our number is far enough off the board to matter — and we say so out loud when it is not. The quiet is the point. How the number is made →