Del Mar — Sat Jul 18, 2026
How this card is made & how to verify it
Edge Card v0 is a transparent heuristic, not a trained model: Prime-Power softmax blended 65/35 with the de-vigged morning line, plus a published rules-based pace adjustment. Constants on the methodology page. Structured analysis, not proven edge; tracked publicly either way.
It reads Brisnet figures and pace only — not trainer, jockey, trip, or track bias yet; that arrives with the trained v1 model. Fair odds are 1 ÷ our win probability.
New here? How to read a flag
- Model
- Our estimated win chance for the horse.
- Fair
- The odds that chance implies — the price where a bet breaks even.
- Board
- The morning line, the track's early guess at the odds.
- Play at X or better
- Only bet if you can get that price or longer. The edge is in the price.
- Pass
- Most races. Our number agrees with the board, so there's nothing to bet.
The model’s read ▾
A longer-priced flag to open the Del Mar card. We give Zip Me Up about a 19% chance in the five-furlong turf dash — not the likeliest winner we'll name today, but the board has him out past where our number sits, and that gap is where a payout actually lives. He's our top figure in a full sprint, four of them gunning early.
Fair is 9/2; the price to demand is 5/1 or better, and we'd skip it underneath. In a five-eighths turf blast the trip matters as much as the figure — one bad step from the gate and the race is gone — so this is a swing, not a stand. One unit at the number, no regret if the speed sorts out against him.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | ZIP ME UP ◀ | 19% | 9/2 | 5/1 |
| 4 | PURE CHAOS | 16% | 11/2 | 4/1 |
| 2 | PAVEL IS APPEALING | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 |
| 13 | WINK AND A GRIN | 10% | 9/1 | 3/1 |
| 10 | TIGER OF THE SEA | 9% | 10/1 | 6/1 |
| 1 | LONG MAYSHE REIGN | 8% | 11/1 | 10/1 |
| 6 | BERRY VALLEY | 7% | 12/1 | 6/1 |
| 3 | ELLEN JORTH | 4% | 25/1 | 10/1 |
| 14 | CLUBHOUSE BRIDE | 4% | 25/1 | 15/1 |
| 8 | A GREAT SHAKING | 3% | 30/1 | 12/1 |
| 5 | FANCY FACTS | 3% | 30/1 | 8/1 |
| 12 | NELL'S LEGACY | 3% | 30/1 | 20/1 |
| 11 | CELESTIAL SKIES | 2% | 50/1 | 30/1 |
| 9 | STARS HOLLOW | 1% | 99/1 | 30/1 |
The model’s read ▾
The shape here is what stands out. It's a maiden dirt sprint, and nobody in it has shown reliable early speed — no confirmed front-runner in the field. In a five-furlong dash that's a real edge for a horse who can break and go, because whoever grabs the lead in a race with no natural speed often gets to set it cheaply. Net Par is our top figure at 28%, and this is the kind of setup that rewards the best of a soft-pace group.
Fair 5/2, take 3/1 or better. Maidens are maidens — a first-time starter can wake up and green trips happen, and there's no long form to lean on. But the pace picture is doing our pick a favor, and at a fair price that's worth the play.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | NET PAR ◀ | 28% | 5/2 | 5/2 |
| 4 | GOLDEN CLUB | 18% | 9/2 | 7/2 |
| 7 | FREEDOM SINGS | 16% | 11/2 | 4/1 |
| 5 | FUMO GRIGIO | 9% | 11/1 | 6/1 |
| 8 | OLYMPIAN THIRST | 8% | 11/1 | 8/1 |
| 10 | CUPID COWBOY | 8% | 12/1 | 10/1 |
| 6 | DICK IRA BONG | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 |
| 3 | THUNDER RIDING | 5% | 20/1 | 12/1 |
| 2 | INCA | 2% | 50/1 | 20/1 |
The model’s read ▾
A route on the Del Mar turf, and the pace reads clean. Only one horse in here really wants the front, so we're not expecting a duel — which usually means the race gets run on the leader's terms instead of blowing apart early. Centrodelantero is our top figure at 22%, a step clear of what the board is offering.
Fair is 7/2, play 4/1 or better. A mile-and-a-sixteenth on grass off a light profile means class and finish decide it, not raw speed, and that's the part our figures like. Moderate edge, honest price — a straightforward unit if the number's there.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | CENTRODELANTERO ◀ | 22% | 7/2 | 4/1 |
| 4 | PACKS A WAHLOP | 14% | 6/1 | 7/2 |
| 8 | MIDNIGHT STRIKE | 14% | 6/1 | 5/1 |
| 10 | MYTHICAL REEL | 13% | 7/1 | 6/1 |
| 1 | MR. LEASURE | 10% | 9/1 | 12/1 |
| 7 | CATCH THE BREEZE | 8% | 11/1 | 8/1 |
| 3 | HACKING IT UP | 7% | 15/1 | 6/1 |
| 2 | EL REY REY | 5% | 20/1 | 12/1 |
| 5 | IN THE TANK | 4% | 25/1 | 12/1 |
| 9 | MUSCLED | 3% | 30/1 | 20/1 |
The model’s read ▾
We close Del Mar on our second-biggest overlay of the day. Koekkoek is a maiden going a flat mile on the turf, and we make him a 27% chance where the board has him more than 3/1 longer than that — nearly eleven points of edge, behind only our Saratoga route flag. Top figure, even pace, a trip that lets a genuine horse settle and finish.
Fair 5/2, and take 3/1 or better. The honest caveat: it's a maiden route, so the form is thin and one bad beginning can end it before the stretch. But an eleven-point gap gives you room to be a little wrong and still come out ahead. A unit at the price, and let the closing number be the closing number.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | KOEKKOEK ◀ | 27% | 5/2 | 4/1 |
| 4 | YEP | 18% | 9/2 | 7/2 |
| 10 | CORKSCREW ANDY | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 |
| 5 | FLAMBOYANT | 10% | 9/1 | 8/1 |
| 3 | CONQUER WE MUST | 10% | 9/1 | 4/1 |
| 9 | PLAGARIST | 6% | 15/1 | 10/1 |
| 1 | PEACE ON EARTH | 4% | 20/1 | 12/1 |
| 11 | GO RALPH | 4% | 25/1 | 20/1 |
| 2 | MOLUCCAN | 4% | 25/1 | 12/1 |
| 8 | MIGHTY TORO | 3% | 30/1 | 15/1 |
| 7 | AMERICAN KING | 2% | 50/1 | 30/1 |