Fair odds for every race — a call on each
A win probability and a fair price for every race we run.
Most races are a pass. We flag one only when our number beats the board.
Every real card looks like this
Race 5 · Saratoga · 1 1/16 mi · post 3:47Sample Flag
4Sample Runner
Model
27%
Fair
5/2 (3.5)
Board
9/2
▸ PLAY AT 7/2 OR BETTER
Edge +9 pts vs board · lone speed (+15% pace)
Timestamped 11:02a ET — before post · sample, not a live call
The record is the product
Opens with the first results postTimestamped before post
Never edited — wins and losses alike
Public archive, permanent
| Date | Track/Race | Horse | Model | Fair | Play≥ | Board | Close | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
The book opens with the first results post →
Why most races are a pass
A pick in every race sells action, not edge. We publish a flag only when our number is far enough off the board to matter — and we say so out loud when it is not. The quiet is the point. How the number is made →