Del Mar · 11 races · published 12:03 AM ET · card locked
4 value plays today · 7 races we're passing
Edge of the Day
5COME ON OM
Race 5 · 5 furlongs turf
29%model5/2fair4/1boardWINpaid at the close
Our biggest edge on the card today (+13 pts over the board) — the crowd will likely bet it down, so expect a shorter number — size it smaller. Chosen by rule: the flag with the most value, graded like any other.
We lose most single flags — that’s expected. The edge is price: when we’re right, the board paid more than fair. Our 30% picks win about 30% (see the calibration curve), and every call is graded against the closing odds — wins and losses.
No set price. On the tote you’re paid the closing odds, so the edge isn’t a line you beat early — it’s the gap between our fair number and where the crowd lands. We grade each flag against the actual close.
Our last miss: SAR R11 Tuthilltown, flagged at 12/1, didn’t win — on the record like every call.
Today at Del MarMostly Cloudy, 69°F, wind 0 to 5 mph · rain 1% — no off-track flagNWS forecast
How this card is made & how to verify it
Edge Card v0 is a transparent heuristic, not a trained model: Prime-Power softmax blended 65/35 with the de-vigged morning line, plus published rules-based pace and trainer-form adjustments (the trainer angle is used as a model input; the raw figure is never published). Constants on the methodology page. Structured analysis, not proven edge; tracked publicly either way.
It reads Brisnet figures, pace, and trainer form — not jockey, trip, or track bias yet; those arrive with the trained v1 model. The trainer angle is used as a model input only; we never publish the raw figure. Fair odds are 1 ÷ our win probability.
The hold/shorten read on each flag is an early signal from its committed board price — long-priced flags the crowd leaves alone tend to hold, short ones get bet down. It’s a heuristic on a small sample; every call is graded on the record.
Model v0-heuristic-1.4 · cfg aab788cb · code 3c797c7f · takeout (DMR) win 15.43% / exacta 22.68% · card SHA-256 ee2f7ccdc08a… · Scratches as of 12:03 AM ET (lock time — no scratches posted yet; first post 13h away). Late scratches void at scoring; the card is never edited.
Powered by Brisnet data
Flags 4 of 11 races
New here? How to read a flag
Model
Our estimated win chance for the horse.
Fair
The odds that chance implies — the price where a bet breaks even.
Board
The morning line, the track's early guess at the odds.
Win bet
Bet the horse to win. Pari-mutuel pays the closing price no matter when you bet, so you're backing the horse, not a fixed price.
Hold / bet down
Whether the price should stay long or get bet down by post — how much of the edge is likely to survive.
The rest of the card
Most races. We still show our top pick and a read on it, but there's no overlay worth a bet.
Odds note: 7/2 is the same as +350.
Race 4 · 1 mile · dirt · OClm 50000n1xFlag
4RABEEBA
Model
Fair
Board
22%
7/2
5/1
our win %
break-even
the morning line
We flag it because the board (5/1) pays more than our fair price (7/2). Same horse, longer price.
The market
13%
Edge Card
22% +8 pts
▸ WIN BET · #4 to win · our fair 7/2, paid at the close
Price may moveA mid board price — it can hold or shorten into post. You are paid the closing price either way, so bet the horse and take the number you get.
Ranks #1 in our power figure blend. Even pace
Data · Brisnet
The model’s read ▾
We make RABEEBA a 22% chance in the 1 mile dirt; the line implies about 13%, and that 8-point gap over the board is the flag.
Our power-rating blend makes it the best of this field — which is why the board’s price looks a step generous.
To play it: a straight win bet on #4. Our fair is 7/2. On the tote you’re paid the closing price no matter when you bet, so you’re backing the horse, not a fixed price — the hold/shorten read above says how much of the edge is likely to survive to post.
Fair-value exotics ▾
Model-fair reference prices, not a +EV call. Exotics take ~20% off the top, so a pool is an overlay only when the tote's probable pays more than the fair return.
Ticket
Cost
Hit
Fair return
After ~20%
Key exacta #4 / #5, #2 value
$2.00
11.6%
$17.20
$13.76
Keyed trifecta #4 / #5, #2 / #5, #2, #1, #6 value
$3.00
9.9%
$30.27
$24.22
Full field ▾
#
Horse
Model
Fair
Board
4
RABEEBA ◀
22%
7/2
5/1
5
CIPRIANI
22%
7/2
5/2
2
GOODNIGHT NELLIE
20%
4/1
4/1
1
SHARED FUTURE
14%
6/1
7/2
6
QUICK KATE
14%
6/1
4/1
3
MEDJUGORJE
8%
11/1
5/1
Race 5 · 5 furlongs · turf · Md Sp WtFlag
5COME ON OM
Model
Fair
Board
29%
5/2
4/1
our win %
break-even
the morning line
We flag it because the board (4/1) pays more than our fair price (5/2). Same horse, longer price.
The market
16%
Edge Card
29% +13 pts
▸ WIN BET · #5 to win · our fair 5/2, paid at the close
Likely bet downA short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post — pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.
Ranks #1 in our power figure blend. Even pace
Data · Brisnet
The model’s read ▾
This is the widest gap on today’s card. We make COME ON OM a 29% shot in the 5 furlongs turf, where the morning line — take stripped out — sits near 16%. When our number is 13 points clear of the board, that disagreement is the whole reason to be here.
It tops our power blend for the race; on the numbers it’s the most likely winner, whatever the odds say.
To play it: a straight win bet on #5. Our fair is 5/2. On the tote you’re paid the closing price no matter when you bet, so you’re backing the horse, not a fixed price — the hold/shorten read above says how much of the edge is likely to survive to post.
Fair-value exotics ▾
Model-fair reference prices, not a +EV call. Exotics take ~20% off the top, so a pool is an overlay only when the tote's probable pays more than the fair return.
We flag it because the board (12/1) pays more than our fair price (13/2). Same horse, longer price.
The market
6%
Edge Card
14% +8 pts
▸ WIN BET · #5 to win · our fair 13/2, paid at the close
Price should holdA long board price the late money tends to leave alone, so you should still get a strong number at post — the fullest version of the edge.
Ranks #2 in our power figure blend; closer in a contested-pace setup. Contested pace likely (5 early-speed types)
Data · Brisnet
The model’s read ▾
We make EMMA G a 14% chance in the 6 furlongs dirt; the line implies about 6%, and that 8-point gap over the board is the flag.
It sits second on our power blend, close enough to the top that the price still looks generous.
The race sets up with contested early pace (5 speed types), and this one profiles to come from off it — we pushed its number up for that (×1.1).
To play it: a straight win bet on #5. Our fair is 13/2. On the tote you’re paid the closing price no matter when you bet, so you’re backing the horse, not a fixed price — the hold/shorten read above says how much of the edge is likely to survive to post.
Fair-value exotics ▾
Model-fair reference prices, not a +EV call. Exotics take ~20% off the top, so a pool is an overlay only when the tote's probable pays more than the fair return.
We flag it because the board (3/1) pays more than our fair price (5/2). Same horse, longer price.
The market
20%
Edge Card
29% +9 pts
▸ WIN BET · #5 to win · our fair 5/2, paid at the close
Likely bet downA short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post — pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.
Ranks #2 in our power figure blend. Even pace
Data · Brisnet
The model’s read ▾
GOLD PHOENIX is one of the more likely winners we flag today — a 29% chance in the 1 1/8 miles turf the board still prices like a longer shot (about 20% once you strip the take). The gap is smaller in points (9) but it’s on a horse we genuinely rate to win.
Our figures put it just behind the field’s best — near enough that the board is leaving value on it.
To play it: a straight win bet on #5. Our fair is 5/2. On the tote you’re paid the closing price no matter when you bet, so you’re backing the horse, not a fixed price — the hold/shorten read above says how much of the edge is likely to survive to post.
Fair-value exotics ▾
Model-fair reference prices, not a +EV call. Exotics take ~20% off the top, so a pool is an overlay only when the tote's probable pays more than the fair return.
Ticket
Cost
Hit
Fair return
After ~20%
Key exacta #5 / #8, #4 value
$2.00
16.8%
$11.91
$9.53
Keyed trifecta #5 / #8, #4 / #8, #4, #2, #7 value
$3.00
10.4%
$28.75
$23.00
Full field ▾
#
Horse
Model
Fair
Board
8
FORMIDABLE MAN
34%
2/1
7/5
5
GOLD PHOENIX ◀
29%
5/2
3/1
4
ALMENDARES
8%
11/1
8/1
2
MONDEGO
7%
12/1
8/1
7
SEAL TEAM
7%
15/1
8/1
6
STAY HOT
6%
15/1
10/1
9
MI HERMANO RAMON
4%
25/1
20/1
3
CABO SPIRIT
4%
25/1
12/1
1
ASTRONOMER
2%
50/1
20/1
Multi-race tickets the whole card, keyed on our reads
Whole-card tickets keyed on our reads — a tight conviction build and a wider coverage build, singling the flags and spreading the open races. Reference construction, not a +EV call: the hit % assumes the legs are independent (v0 doesn’t model pace or scratches across races), and only the flagged legs are graded bets.
The rest of the card our read on every race — analysis, not a bet
R1Chalk7SAREEHA24%3/15/2
No edge on our top pick — the market has it priced about right.
Full field ▾
#
Horse
Model
Fair
Board
7
SAREEHA
24%
3/1
5/2
1
CANDY BAR
17%
5/1
7/2
4
SHOCKING GREY
15%
11/2
6/1
6
CAMERON SLOUGH
13%
13/2
4/1
8
CORPORAL VIOLETTE
9%
10/1
6/1
5
LUBIE'S MUSIC
8%
11/1
12/1
2
MARS MAGIC
7%
15/1
15/1
3
IMA JOKER
7%
15/1
8/1
R2Chalk2VAN GOGH STYLE23%7/22/1
No edge on our top pick — the market has it priced about right.
Full field ▾
#
Horse
Model
Fair
Board
2
VAN GOGH STYLE
23%
7/2
2/1
5
ZAKIEL
22%
7/2
5/2
4
DE FACTO
20%
4/1
5/1
3
MICKEY
16%
5/1
3/1
6
PRACTICAL BLAME
11%
8/1
6/1
1
BELLO ROSSO
8%
12/1
15/1
R3Lean6LET HER FLY27%3/15/2
Our top-rated horse. A small edge, under our bet line.
Full field ▾
#
Horse
Model
Fair
Board
6
LET HER FLY
27%
3/1
5/2
1
DREAM SEEKER
20%
4/1
3/1
3
AUTOMATIC PRESS
16%
5/1
4/1
8
WILDCATTER
11%
8/1
6/1
7
SUPER SPIKE
9%
10/1
8/1
5
SAUDI RUNNER
7%
12/1
10/1
2
DEE SNOOK
6%
15/1
8/1
4
OSCAR STORM
4%
25/1
20/1
R6Scramble5PERFECT SMILE17%5/17/2
Wide-open heat; no separation we'd trust.
Full field ▾
#
Horse
Model
Fair
Board
5
PERFECT SMILE
17%
5/1
7/2
1
COTTA RIDE
13%
13/2
4/1
3
HOW IT IS
11%
8/1
12/1
11
MY BABYCAKES
11%
8/1
3/1
4
SPY IN DISGUISE
10%
9/1
20/1
2
SALTY SISS
9%
10/1
6/1
12
SURPRISE D' ORO
7%
12/1
12/1
8
CINDYS BEACH HOUSE
6%
15/1
12/1
9
QUEEN OF BANTRY
5%
20/1
15/1
7
BORACAY MISS
4%
20/1
20/1
6
CHAMPAGNIA
4%
25/1
20/1
10
SHEDUNIT
2%
50/1
30/1
R7Chalk2PRIVATE GEM18%9/24/1
No edge on our top pick — the market has it priced about right.
Full field ▾
#
Horse
Model
Fair
Board
2
PRIVATE GEM
18%
9/2
4/1
1
ROGUE LEGEND
13%
13/2
8/1
3
MESCALERO
11%
8/1
8/1
4
POSEIDON'S LAW
11%
8/1
3/1
7
VALIANT SON
10%
9/1
10/1
8
LEGAL HEIR
10%
9/1
8/1
9
YACOWLEF
10%
9/1
6/1
6
SIR ROCKET
9%
11/1
12/1
10
RE ARMED JON
6%
15/1
12/1
5
DR. MY EYES
3%
30/1
12/1
R10Scramble10MONGOLIAN MAX16%11/27/2
Wide-open heat; no separation we'd trust.
Full field ▾
#
Horse
Model
Fair
Board
10
MONGOLIAN MAX
16%
11/2
7/2
4
ROYAL 'N RANDO
14%
6/1
3/1
6
SHORTMAN
13%
13/2
12/1
8
MICI'S EXPRESS
11%
8/1
4/1
3
OOBUBBAKAKAYO
10%
9/1
10/1
2
CUPID'S CRUSADER
9%
10/1
8/1
9
CATHAL
8%
11/1
12/1
1
BIG JUANITO
8%
12/1
8/1
5
SUNSET STORM
5%
20/1
15/1
7
LEVON
5%
20/1
20/1
R11Chalk5GOJE19%9/27/2
No edge on our top pick — the market has it priced about right.
Full field ▾
#
Horse
Model
Fair
Board
5
GOJE
19%
9/2
7/2
2
RYAN'S GIRL
15%
6/1
5/1
4
FIBONACCIS RIDE
12%
7/1
8/1
11
WILD WEST COAST
10%
9/1
8/1
10
HELLO KID O KID O
10%
9/1
12/1
8
NEWPORT DREAMZ
8%
11/1
8/1
7
EIGHTIES
7%
12/1
4/1
1
IT'S A FAIRLIFE
6%
15/1
12/1
3
MPERFECTION
5%
20/1
10/1
6
KOOL MARIAH
4%
25/1
20/1
9
WHOPPER FACTOR
4%
25/1
20/1
Edge Card
Quantitative horse-racing analysis for adults. You must be 18 or older (21+ where required by your state) to enter.