Saratoga & Del Mar · 2026 Meets · Model v0 · the anti-tout
Transparent model race-cards

Saratoga — Thu Jul 16, 2026

3 value plays today · 6 races we're passing
How this card is made & how to verify it

Edge Card v0 is a transparent heuristic, not a trained model: Prime-Power softmax blended 40/60 with the de-vigged morning line, plus a published rules-based pace adjustment. Constants on the methodology page. Structured analysis, not proven edge; tracked publicly either way.

Model v0-heuristic-1.1 · cfg c8795908 · code 02e4715c · takeout (SAR) win 16% / exacta 18.5% · card SHA-256 970405a28133… · Scratches as of 10:00 AM ET. Late scratches void at scoring; the card is never edited.

Powered by Brisnet data
Flags 3 of 9 races
New here? How to read a flag
Model
Our estimated win chance for the horse.
Fair
The odds that chance implies — the price where a bet breaks even.
Board
The morning line, the track's early guess at the odds.
Play at X or better
Only bet if you can get that price or longer. The edge is in the price.
Pass
Most races. Our number agrees with the board, so there's nothing to bet.

Odds note: 7/2 is the same as +350.

Race 2 · 1 mile · dirt · Md Sp WtFlag
4IRISH GOODBYE
Model
Fair
Board
28%
5/2
7/2
our win %
break-even
the morning line
We flag it because the board (7/2) pays more than our fair price (5/2). Same horse, longer price.
The market
22%
Edge Card
28% +5 pts
▸ PLAY AT 7/2 OR BETTER
Ranks #1 in our power figure blend. Even pace
Data · Brisnet
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
4IRISH GOODBYE 28%5/25/2
2TERM PREMIUM22%7/22/1
6IN FRONT RUNNER12%7/14/1
7TUNING IN11%8/16/1
3BUBSTER10%9/18/1
5ROADIE9%10/16/1
1BAKUTO8%12/115/1
Race 6 · 1 1/8 miles · dirt · Md Sp WtFlag
7JADORLINIJA
Model
Fair
Board
15%
11/2
8/1
our win %
break-even
the morning line
We flag it because the board (8/1) pays more than our fair price (11/2). Same horse, longer price.
The market
11%
Edge Card
15% +4 pts
▸ PLAY AT 15/2 OR BETTER
Ranks #2 in our power figure blend; closer in a contested-pace setup. Contested pace likely (3 early-speed types)
Data · Brisnet
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
4ATI GIRL21%7/25/2
6PIPPA ADDS17%5/13/1
7JADORLINIJA 15%11/26/1
5MOONLIT11%8/19/2
8RAGHBA11%8/16/1
3FULL OF TACT10%9/115/1
1MORNING MENACE9%10/16/1
2PRAIRIE PRINCESS6%15/112/1
Race 7 · 1 1/16 miles · turf · Clm 35000n2lFlag
2ENGLISH LAW
Model
Fair
Board
18%
9/2
7/1
our win %
break-even
the morning line
We flag it because the board (7/1) pays more than our fair price (9/2). Same horse, longer price.
The market
12%
Edge Card
18% +5 pts
▸ PLAY AT 6/1 OR BETTER
Ranks #1 in our power figure blend. Contested pace likely (5 early-speed types)
Data · Brisnet
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
2ENGLISH LAW 18%9/27/2
13I'M WORTHY16%11/22/1
7CIRO DI MARZIO14%6/15/2
6VINTAGE VINO13%13/24/1
8SICILIAN DEFENSE7%12/19/2
12CORVUS6%15/16/1
3BOLD LOVE6%15/115/1
10COACH CASE6%15/18/1
4BLAME IT ON K J4%25/120/1
9ROYAL BROWNE3%30/112/1
5TAKE A STANCE3%30/115/1
11CHIPS AND FISH2%50/130/1
1ROSCOMMON2%50/130/1
Passes no bet — our number agrees with the market
R16FAMOUS FIGURE26%2/1
R35TIZMARKUS23%5/2
R410STREAM IT14%8/5
R53ALL STAR LEIGH12%7/2
R87PALACIOS21%5/2
R96ROASTED REDS13%3/1