Del Mar · 11 races · published 10:29 AM ET · card locked
4 value plays today · 7 races we're passing
Edge of the Day
10VENTRY STRAND
Race 7 · 1 mile turf
32%model2/1fair7/2boardWINpaid at the close
Our biggest edge on the card today (+15 pts over the board) — the crowd will likely bet it down, so expect a shorter number — size it smaller. Chosen by rule: the flag with the most value, graded like any other.
We lose most single flags — that’s expected. The edge is price: when we’re right, the board paid more than fair. Our 30% picks win about 30% (see the calibration curve), and every call is graded against the closing odds — wins and losses.
No set price. On the tote you’re paid the closing odds, so the edge isn’t a line you beat early — it’s the gap between our fair number and where the crowd lands. We grade each flag against the actual close.
Our last miss: SAR R10 War And Majesty, flagged at 6/1, didn’t win — on the record like every call.
Today at Del MarPartly Sunny, 77°F, wind 0 to 5 mph · rain 1% — no off-track flagNWS forecast
How this card is made & how to verify it
Edge Card v0 is a transparent heuristic, not a trained model: Prime-Power softmax blended 65/35 with the de-vigged morning line, plus published rules-based pace and trainer-form adjustments (the trainer angle is used as a model input; the raw figure is never published). Constants on the methodology page. Structured analysis, not proven edge; tracked publicly either way.
It reads Brisnet figures, pace, and trainer form — not jockey, trip, or track bias yet; those arrive with the trained v1 model. The trainer angle is used as a model input only; we never publish the raw figure. Fair odds are 1 ÷ our win probability.
The hold/shorten read on each flag is an early signal from its committed board price — long-priced flags the crowd leaves alone tend to hold, short ones get bet down. It’s a heuristic on a small sample; every call is graded on the record.
Model v0-heuristic-1.4 · cfg aab788cb · code 030f208e · takeout (DMR) win 15.43% / exacta 22.68% · card SHA-256 7bfff866e6b7… · Scratches as of 10:00 AM ET. Late scratches void at scoring; the card is never edited.
Powered by Brisnet data
Flags 4 of 11 races
New here? How to read a flag
Model
Our estimated win chance for the horse.
Fair
The odds that chance implies — the price where a bet breaks even.
Board
The morning line, the track's early guess at the odds.
Win bet
Bet the horse to win. Pari-mutuel pays the closing price no matter when you bet, so you're backing the horse, not a fixed price.
Hold / bet down
Whether the price should stay long or get bet down by post — how much of the edge is likely to survive.
The rest of the card
Most races. We still show our top pick and a read on it, but there's no overlay worth a bet.
Odds note: 7/2 is the same as +350.
Race 1 · 6 1/2 furlongs · dirt · Moc 32000Flag
7KINZLEE'SCHARISMA
Model
Fair
Board
24%
3/1
4/1
our win %
break-even
the morning line
We flag it because the board (4/1) pays more than our fair price (3/1). Same horse, longer price.
The market
16%
Edge Card
24% +8 pts
▸ WIN BET · #7 to win · our fair 3/1, paid at the close
Likely bet downA short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post — pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.
Ranks #1 in our power figure blend. Even pace
Data · Brisnet
The model’s read ▾
We make KINZLEE'SCHARISMA a 24% chance in the 6 1/2 furlongs dirt; the line implies about 16%, and that 8-point gap over the board is the flag.
Our power-rating blend makes it the best of this field — which is why the board’s price looks a step generous.
To play it: a straight win bet on #7. Our fair is 3/1. On the tote you’re paid the closing price no matter when you bet, so you’re backing the horse, not a fixed price — the hold/shorten read above says how much of the edge is likely to survive to post.
Fair-value exotics ▾
Model-fair reference prices, not a +EV call. Exotics take ~20% off the top, so a pool is an overlay only when the tote's probable pays more than the fair return.
We flag it because the board (7/2) pays more than our fair price (2/1). Same horse, longer price.
The market
18%
Edge Card
32% +15 pts
▸ WIN BET · #10 to win · our fair 2/1, paid at the close
Likely bet downA short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post — pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.
Ranks #1 in our power figure blend. Even pace
Data · Brisnet
The model’s read ▾
This is the widest gap on today’s card. We make VENTRY STRAND a 32% shot in the 1 mile turf, where the morning line — take stripped out — sits near 18%. When our number is 15 points clear of the board, that disagreement is the whole reason to be here.
Our power-rating blend makes it the best of this field — which is why the board’s price looks a step generous.
To play it: a straight win bet on #10. Our fair is 2/1. On the tote you’re paid the closing price no matter when you bet, so you’re backing the horse, not a fixed price — the hold/shorten read above says how much of the edge is likely to survive to post.
Fair-value exotics ▾
Model-fair reference prices, not a +EV call. Exotics take ~20% off the top, so a pool is an overlay only when the tote's probable pays more than the fair return.
We flag it because the board (8/1) pays more than our fair price (4/1). Same horse, longer price.
The market
9%
Edge Card
21% +12 pts
▸ WIN BET · #3 to win · our fair 4/1, paid at the close
Price should holdA long board price the late money tends to leave alone, so you should still get a strong number at post — the fullest version of the edge.
Ranks #1 in our power figure blend. Contested pace likely (6 early-speed types)
Data · Brisnet
The model’s read ▾
We make CAN'T SLEEP a 21% chance in the 5 furlongs turf; the line implies about 9%, and that 12-point gap over the board is the flag.
On the figures it’s the one we rate highest in here, so a longer price reads as the market underrating it.
The race sets up with contested early pace (6 speed types), and this one profiles to come from off it — we pushed its number up for that (×1.1).
To play it: a straight win bet on #3. Our fair is 4/1. On the tote you’re paid the closing price no matter when you bet, so you’re backing the horse, not a fixed price — the hold/shorten read above says how much of the edge is likely to survive to post.
Fair-value exotics ▾
Model-fair reference prices, not a +EV call. Exotics take ~20% off the top, so a pool is an overlay only when the tote's probable pays more than the fair return.
The board and our fair price round to the same number (3/1), so the gap is finer than fractional odds show — it is +6.2 points of win probability, not a longer price.
The market
20%
Edge Card
26% +6 pts
▸ WIN BET · #6 to win · our fair 3/1, paid at the close
Likely bet downA short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post — pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.
Ranks #1 in our power figure blend. Contested pace likely (5 early-speed types)
Data · Brisnet
The model’s read ▾
We make CORNUCOPIAN a 26% chance in the 6 furlongs dirt; the line implies about 20%, and that 6-point gap over the board is the flag.
Our power-rating blend makes it the best of this field — which is why the board’s price looks a step generous.
The race sets up with contested early pace (5 speed types), and this one profiles to come from off it — we pushed its number up for that (×1.1).
To play it: a straight win bet on #6. Our fair is 3/1. On the tote you’re paid the closing price no matter when you bet, so you’re backing the horse, not a fixed price — the hold/shorten read above says how much of the edge is likely to survive to post.
Fair-value exotics ▾
Model-fair reference prices, not a +EV call. Exotics take ~20% off the top, so a pool is an overlay only when the tote's probable pays more than the fair return.
Whole-card tickets keyed on our reads — a tight conviction build and a wider coverage build, singling the flags and spreading the open races. Reference construction, not a +EV call: the hit % assumes the legs are independent (v0 doesn’t model pace or scratches across races), and only the flagged legs are graded bets.
The rest of the card our read on every race — analysis, not a bet
R2Scramble2BAKO COUNTRY16%11/24/1
Wide-open heat; no separation we'd trust.
Full field ▾
#
Horse
Model
Fair
Board
2
BAKO COUNTRY
16%
11/2
4/1
6
TREXIMO
14%
6/1
4/1
10
BUCKS ACTION
12%
15/2
8/1
5
TACOS AND TEQUILA
10%
9/1
7/2
1
BATTLE SCHOOL
10%
9/1
12/1
11
MANILA BAY
7%
12/1
10/1
3
MISSILE CRUISER
7%
12/1
20/1
8
H Q WILSON
6%
15/1
12/1
9
TEXAS WILDCAT
6%
15/1
12/1
7
MY BOX OF LIGHT
5%
20/1
20/1
12
COSMIC TRAIL
4%
25/1
20/1
4
CIMARRON STRIP
3%
30/1
12/1
R3Scramble2SAQQARA SANDS19%4/13/1
Wide-open heat; no separation we'd trust.
Full field ▾
#
Horse
Model
Fair
Board
2
SAQQARA SANDS
19%
4/1
3/1
3
CERTITUDE
17%
5/1
9/2
1
MAY DAY READY
17%
5/1
7/2
7
RESOLVE
15%
11/2
5/1
4
PUBLIC ASSEMBLY
13%
13/2
5/1
8
BALTIC FIRE
11%
8/1
6/1
5
RAW ABILITY
4%
25/1
12/1
6
SURF SONG
3%
30/1
20/1
R4Chalk2DOMUS28%5/22/1
No edge on our top pick — the market has it priced about right.
Full field ▾
#
Horse
Model
Fair
Board
2
DOMUS
28%
5/2
2/1
7
NAYAR
24%
3/1
5/2
5
MIDNIGHT OVATION
15%
6/1
4/1
1
LUBIES PRINCE
9%
10/1
8/1
4
WHISKEY BRIDGE
9%
10/1
8/1
8
CLEAR AND PRESENT
6%
15/1
12/1
3
DANG SON
5%
20/1
15/1
6
WILL DO ONE
5%
20/1
15/1
R5Chalk6WARM SUN AND BREW24%3/15/2
No edge on our top pick — the market has it priced about right.
Full field ▾
#
Horse
Model
Fair
Board
6
WARM SUN AND BREW
24%
3/1
5/2
8
CHROMEFLASH
21%
4/1
3/1
4
TRUMP ERA
12%
15/2
6/1
2
HARDTOBEBETTERNOW
11%
8/1
10/1
5
STEAK FRIES
8%
11/1
6/1
7
HIGHPLAINSDRIFTER
8%
12/1
12/1
1
KING OF DRAGONS
5%
20/1
12/1
10
KEEP DANCIN NICK
5%
20/1
12/1
9
DRUIDIC
4%
25/1
20/1
3
REFOCUS
3%
30/1
12/1
R6Scramble7SHADY STRIPES18%9/23/1
Wide-open heat; no separation we'd trust.
Full field ▾
#
Horse
Model
Fair
Board
7
SHADY STRIPES
18%
9/2
3/1
2
VIOLENCES OHR
16%
5/1
6/1
4
PRETTY CECY
11%
8/1
5/1
9
A FLEET RIDE
11%
8/1
7/2
11
VRONAWAY
8%
11/1
12/1
5
SAVANNAHS BIG GIRL
6%
15/1
12/1
3
SUSIE'S LOADED
6%
15/1
10/1
8
OM TIME GAL
6%
15/1
20/1
10
ALIX
5%
20/1
12/1
6
KAMBREE'S FLYER
5%
20/1
12/1
12
ROYAL LADY
5%
20/1
30/1
1
WINSOME LOVE
3%
30/1
30/1
R8Chalk3MARCH OF TIME19%4/17/2
No edge on our top pick — the market has it priced about right.
Full field ▾
#
Horse
Model
Fair
Board
3
MARCH OF TIME
19%
4/1
7/2
5
MIDNIGHT MAMMOTH
14%
6/1
4/1
7
INDISPENSABLE
12%
15/2
4/1
8
MC VAY
12%
15/2
8/1
2
BARTHOLDY
11%
8/1
8/1
9
MIDWAY LANE
8%
11/1
8/1
10
FIRMUS
7%
12/1
12/1
4
FROSTY INDULGENCE
6%
15/1
12/1
6
THE LAST STRAW
5%
20/1
15/1
1
MORUNNING
5%
20/1
12/1
R11Chalk10TAKE ANOTHER CARD18%9/27/2
No edge on our top pick — the market has it priced about right.
Full field ▾
#
Horse
Model
Fair
Board
10
TAKE ANOTHER CARD
18%
9/2
7/2
2
KIKURIDE
14%
6/1
6/1
3
LADY IN PARIS
13%
13/2
5/1
7
AMERICA'S MARK
13%
7/1
5/1
5
MISO PHANSY
10%
10/1
6/1
9
YOGA MASTER
9%
10/1
10/1
8
BETTE DAVIS EYES
6%
15/1
12/1
4
UPCHARGE
6%
15/1
6/1
11
QUANTUM INNERGY
5%
15/1
20/1
1
MIDNIGHT HORIZON
5%
20/1
12/1
Edge Card
Quantitative horse-racing analysis for adults. You must be 18 or older (21+ where required by your state) to enter.