Del Mar — Sun Jul 19, 2026

Del Mar · 11 races · published 11:53 AM ET · card locked

4 value plays today · 7 races we're passing

Edge of the Day

6MOTORIOUS

Race 3 · 5 furlongs turf

38%model8/5fair5/2boardWINpaid at the close

Our biggest edge on the card today (+11 pts over the board) — the crowd will likely bet it down, so expect a shorter number — size it smaller. Chosen by rule: the flag with the most value, graded like any other.

Public record7–8flags, W–L+11.0uflat-$2+36.7%flat-bet ROI, n=15every call hash-stamped before post →

We lose most single flags — that’s expected. The edge is price: when we’re right, the board paid more than fair. Our 30% picks win about 30% (see the calibration curve), and every call is graded against the closing odds — wins and losses.

No set price. On the tote you’re paid the closing odds, so the edge isn’t a line you beat early — it’s the gap between our fair number and where the crowd lands. We grade each flag against the actual close.

Our last miss: DMR R7 Centrodelantero, flagged at 4/1, didn’t win — on the record like every call.

Today at Del MarMostly Sunny, 75°F, wind 0 to 10 mph · rain 3% — no off-track flagNWS forecast

How this card is made & how to verify it

Edge Card v0 is a transparent heuristic, not a trained model: Prime-Power softmax blended 65/35 with the de-vigged morning line, plus published rules-based pace and trainer-form adjustments (the trainer angle is used as a model input; the raw figure is never published). Constants on the methodology page. Structured analysis, not proven edge; tracked publicly either way.

It reads Brisnet figures, pace, and trainer form — not jockey, trip, or track bias yet; those arrive with the trained v1 model. The trainer angle is used as a model input only; we never publish the raw figure. Fair odds are 1 ÷ our win probability.

The hold/shorten read on each flag is an early signal from its committed board price — long-priced flags the crowd leaves alone tend to hold, short ones get bet down. It’s a heuristic on a small sample; every call is graded on the record.

Model v0-heuristic-1.4 · cfg aab788cb · code 14a5af5d · takeout (DMR) win 15.43% / exacta 22.68% · card SHA-256 4c9c5e8e4aef… · Scratches as of 11:53 AM ET. Late scratches void at scoring; the card is never edited.

Flags 4 of 11 races

New here? How to read a flag

Model: Our estimated win chance for the horse.
Fair: The odds that chance implies — the price where a bet breaks even.
Board: The morning line, the track's early guess at the odds.
Win bet: Bet the horse to win. Pari-mutuel pays the closing price no matter when you bet, so you're backing the horse, not a fixed price.
Hold / bet down: Whether the price should stay long or get bet down by post — how much of the edge is likely to survive.
The rest of the card: Most races. We still show our top pick and a read on it, but there's no overlay worth a bet.

Odds note: 7/2 is the same as +350.

Race 1 · 5 1/2 furlongs · dirt · Md 50000Flag

7FREDDY FIVE FOUR

Model

Fair

Board

15%

6/1

10/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

We flag it because the board (10/1) pays more than our fair price (6/1). Same horse, longer price.

The market

Edge Card

15% +6 pts

▸ WIN BET · #7 to win · our fair 6/1, paid at the close

Price should hold A long board price the late money tends to leave alone, so you should still get a strong number at post — the fullest version of the edge.

Ranks #2 in our power figure blend. Even pace

Data · Brisnet

The model’s read ▾

A quiet longshot to open Del Mar. We make Freddy Five Four about a 15% chance in the five-and-a-half maiden claimer, and the board has it out past that — a six-point gap on a horse the crowd isn't paying much attention to. It sits second on our figures, close enough to the top that the price reads a step generous.

Fair is 6/1; take 13/2 or better. This is the kind of long price the late money tends to leave alone, so unlike a short favorite it may actually still be there at post. But it's a maiden claimer — keep it to a unit, no heartbreak if it comes up short.

Fair-value exotics ▾

Model-fair reference prices, not a +EV call. Exotics take ~20% off the top, so a pool is an overlay only when the tote's probable pays more than the fair return.

Ticket	Cost	Hit	Fair return	After ~20%
Key exacta #7 / #4, #5 longshot	$2.00	7.7%	$26.01	$20.81
Keyed trifecta #7 / #4, #5 / #4, #5, #2, #1 longshot	$3.00	5.5%	$54.67	$43.74

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
4	JETWAY	27%	5/2	5/2
5	PHAROAH'S CANDY	18%	9/2	7/2
7	FREDDY FIVE FOUR ◀	15%	6/1	8/1
2	HOWIE'S LAW	12%	15/2	3/1
1	FINIBALL	11%	8/1	6/1
6	ELUSIVE CON	11%	8/1	5/1
3	HOOSICK FALLS	7%	12/1	15/1

Race 3 · 5 furlongs · turf · OClm 100000bFlag

6MOTORIOUS

Model

Fair

Board

38%

8/5

5/2

our win %

break-even

the morning line

We flag it because the board (5/2) pays more than our fair price (8/5). Same horse, longer price.

The market

27%

Edge Card

38% +11 pts

▸ WIN BET · #6 to win · our fair 8/5, paid at the close

Likely bet down A short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post — pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend; closer in a contested-pace setup. Contested pace likely (4 early-speed types)

Data · Brisnet

The model’s read ▾

The most confident number on our Del Mar card, and there's a wrinkle. We make Motorious a 38% chance in the five-furlong turf sprint — comfortably the likeliest winner we flag today — and the shape helps: four early-speed types up front, and this one comes from off it, so we pushed its figure up for the pace it gets to run at.

The catch is the price. Fair is 8/5, and a horse this live at a number this short gets bet down — our read is the value is likely gone by post, so the discipline is the whole game here. Take 9/5 or better and pass if it's shorter, which it may well be. A quality play at a fair number, not at any number.

Fair-value exotics ▾

Model-fair reference prices, not a +EV call. Exotics take ~20% off the top, so a pool is an overlay only when the tote's probable pays more than the fair return.

Ticket	Cost	Hit	Fair return	After ~20%
Key exacta #6 / #4, #2 value	$2.00	19.9%	$10.07	$8.06
Keyed trifecta #6 / #4, #2 / #4, #2, #7, #5 value	$3.00	15.1%	$19.91	$15.93

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
6	MOTORIOUS ◀	38%	8/5	2/1
4	SUMTER	18%	9/2	3/1
2	FLYOVER	14%	6/1	6/1
7	SORRENTO SKY	11%	8/1	5/1
5	BOOK SMART	8%	12/1	5/1
3	CALL ME CORY	6%	15/1	8/1
1	NESSO'S LASTHARRAH	5%	20/1	12/1

Race 7 · 5 furlongs · turf · Md Sp WtFlag

2FAIR QUESTION

Model

Fair

Board

15%

6/1

11/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

We flag it because the board (11/1) pays more than our fair price (6/1). Same horse, longer price.

The market

Edge Card

15% +6 pts

▸ WIN BET · #2 to win · our fair 6/1, paid at the close

Price should hold A long board price the late money tends to leave alone, so you should still get a strong number at post — the fullest version of the edge.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend. Contested pace likely (4 early-speed types)

Data · Brisnet

The model’s read ▾

A speed angle we're a little cautious on. Fair Question tops our figures in the five-furlong turf maiden, but it wants the lead and it's not alone — four in here have early speed, so we docked its number for the fight up front. Even docked, our 15% clears the board by six points.

Fair 6/1, play 13/2 or better. The long price is the saving grace: it's not a horse the crowd will hammer, so the number should hold to post even if the pace gets messy. One unit, eyes open on the speed duel.

Fair-value exotics ▾

Model-fair reference prices, not a +EV call. Exotics take ~20% off the top, so a pool is an overlay only when the tote's probable pays more than the fair return.

Ticket	Cost	Hit	Fair return	After ~20%
Key exacta #2 / #10, #4 longshot	$2.00	5.7%	$34.85	$27.88
Keyed trifecta #2 / #10, #4 / #10, #4, #6, #12 longshot	$3.00	3.1%	$96.34	$77.07

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
10	POSITIVE TIMES	18%	9/2	3/1
4	LUCKY N SMART	16%	5/1	7/2
2	FAIR QUESTION ◀	15%	6/1	8/1
6	SIRNAMI	11%	8/1	6/1
12	STILL BULLETPROOF	10%	10/1	12/1
1	PROOF HE GOES	9%	10/1	8/1
3	MENDEZLEBANK	6%	15/1	12/1
7	CHAOTIC NEUTRAL	6%	15/1	12/1
8	TIGER SMILING	5%	20/1	12/1
5	VICTORIA'S ROCKET	3%	30/1	12/1
9	OM GROWN TOMATOES	1%	50/1	30/1
11	SCORCHING HOT	1%	99/1	30/1

Race 11 · 1 1/16 miles · turf · Clm 25000Flag

6ZALAMO

Model

Fair

Board

21%

7/2

8/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

We flag it because the board (8/1) pays more than our fair price (7/2). Same horse, longer price.

The market

11%

Edge Card

21% +10 pts

▸ WIN BET · #6 to win · our fair 7/2, paid at the close

Price may move A mid board price — it can hold or shorten into post. You are paid the closing price either way, so bet the horse and take the number you get.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend. Even pace

Data · Brisnet

The model’s read ▾

Our widest gap on the Del Mar card. We make Zalamo a 21% shot in the mile-and-a-sixteenth turf claimer, ten points clear of where the board has it, and it tops our figures with an honest even-pace setup — nobody loose on the lead to steal it.

Fair 7/2, play 4/1 or better. This one's a toss-up on price: at a 6/1 morning line it could hold, or the money could find it and bring it in. Watch the board near post — it's a play only if it's still 4/1 or better when you get there.

Fair-value exotics ▾

Model-fair reference prices, not a +EV call. Exotics take ~20% off the top, so a pool is an overlay only when the tote's probable pays more than the fair return.

Ticket	Cost	Hit	Fair return	After ~20%
Key exacta #6 / #5, #9 longshot	$2.00	6.7%	$29.71	$23.77
Keyed trifecta #6 / #5, #9 / #5, #9, #10, #4 longshot	$3.00	3.1%	$97.49	$77.99

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
6	ZALAMO ◀	21%	7/2	6/1
5	ENTERDADRAGON	13%	13/2	6/1
9	PHOSPHORESCENCE	11%	15/2	3/1
10	CHARGE FOR GOLD	10%	9/1	5/1
4	GOLD FOOT	8%	11/1	12/1
11	CALM SEA	7%	12/1	12/1
7	AH JEEZ	7%	15/1	8/1
1	EMPIRE'S CLASSIC	5%	15/1	20/1
13	GEOMETRY	5%	20/1	15/1
3	ONE OF THESE DAYS	4%	20/1	12/1
8	JIMMY BLUE JEANS	4%	25/1	12/1
12	DON'T SWEAR DAVE	3%	30/1	20/1

Multi-race tickets the whole card, keyed on our reads

Late Pick 4 (R8–R11)

Build	Cost	Hit	Fair return	After ~20%
Conviction	$4.00	0.86%	$466.52	$373.22
R8 #2, #6 · R9 #5, #1 · R10 #5, #6 · R11 #6
Coverage	$32.00	4.28%	$747.23	$597.78
R8 #2, #6, #8, #11 · R9 #5, #1, #8, #2 · R10 #5, #6, #8, #4 · R11 #6

Late Pick 5 (R7–R11)

Build	Cost	Hit	Fair return	After ~20%
Conviction	$4.00	0.12%	$3208.54	$2566.83
R7 #2 · R8 #2, #6 · R9 #5, #1 · R10 #5, #6 · R11 #6
Coverage	$32.00	0.62%	$5139.12	$4111.30
R7 #2 · R8 #2, #6, #8, #11 · R9 #5, #1, #8, #2 · R10 #5, #6, #8, #4 · R11 #6

Early Pick 5 (R1–R5)

Build	Cost	Hit	Fair return	After ~20%
Conviction	$2.00	0.14%	$1451.83	$1161.46
R1 #7 · R2 #5 · R3 #6 · R4 #5, #7 · R5 #3, #2
Coverage	$16.00	0.79%	$2027.50	$1622.00
R1 #7 · R2 #5, #1 · R3 #6 · R4 #5, #7, #4, #8 · R5 #3, #2, #1, #4

Pick 6 (R6–R11)

Build	Cost	Hit	Fair return	After ~20%
Conviction	$1.60	0.02%	$7897.95	$6318.36
R6 #1 · R7 #2 · R8 #2, #6 · R9 #5, #1 · R10 #5, #6 · R11 #6
Coverage	$25.60	0.19%	$13387.49	$10709.99
R6 #1, #10 · R7 #2 · R8 #2, #6, #8, #11 · R9 #5, #1, #8, #2 · R10 #5, #6, #8, #4 · R11 #6

Rolling Pick 3 (R1–R3)

Build	Cost	Hit	Fair return	After ~20%
Conviction	$0.50	1.29%	$38.83	$31.06
R1 #7 · R2 #5 · R3 #6
Coverage	$1.00	2.21%	$45.33	$36.26
R1 #7 · R2 #5, #1 · R3 #6

Rolling Pick 3 (R5–R7)

Build	Cost	Hit	Fair return	After ~20%
Conviction	$1.00	0.86%	$116.18	$92.94
R5 #3, #2 · R6 #1 · R7 #2
Coverage	$4.00	2.84%	$140.81	$112.65
R5 #3, #2, #1, #4 · R6 #1, #10 · R7 #2

Whole-card tickets keyed on our reads — a tight conviction build and a wider coverage build, singling the flags and spreading the open races. Reference construction, not a +EV call: the hit % assumes the legs are independent (v0 doesn’t model pace or scratches across races), and only the flagged legs are graded bets.

The rest of the card our read on every race — analysis, not a bet

R2Chalk5PHONE BOOTH23%7/25/2

No edge on our top pick — the market has it priced about right.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
5	PHONE BOOTH	23%	7/2	5/2
1	GOODTIMESNTANLINES	16%	5/1	4/1
3	SOUTHWEST SUN	13%	13/2	5/1
7	SCAM ALERT	13%	7/1	5/1
8	LITTLE KING	11%	8/1	6/1
2	NO LIMIT	11%	8/1	6/1
6	SMOKE RIDER	9%	10/1	12/1
4	TUDDY	3%	30/1	12/1

R4Scramble5ATTACK NOW15%11/27/2

Wide-open heat; no separation we'd trust.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
5	ATTACK NOW	15%	11/2	7/2
7	CHE	14%	6/1	4/1
4	KIKI RIDE	14%	6/1	5/1
8	CANO FOR THE WIN	13%	7/1	6/1
10	KING OF SUCCESS	12%	7/1	8/1
9	STAGE RUN	9%	10/1	8/1
3	DANE THE GREAT	9%	10/1	8/1
1	DISILLUSIONED	6%	15/1	12/1
2	NASH FOR CASH	4%	25/1	20/1
6	BAAL	3%	30/1	15/1

R5Scramble3TIZ ALL THAT19%4/13/1

Wide-open heat; no separation we'd trust.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
3	TIZ ALL THAT	19%	4/1	3/1
2	SAVAGE WARDEN	17%	5/1	7/2
1	SAMMY DAVIS	14%	13/2	5/1
4	TRIBALISM	13%	13/2	8/1
8	CARO BUONO	12%	7/1	6/1
5	ZEUS'S ECHO	11%	8/1	5/1
7	MELISMATIC	9%	10/1	8/1
6	GAIRLOCH	5%	20/1	12/1

R6Lean1NEXT TRICK16%5/16/1

Our top-rated horse. A small edge, under our bet line.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
1	NEXT TRICK	16%	5/1	6/1
10	BENEFICIAL	14%	6/1	7/2
2	DESERT KAT	11%	8/1	8/1
9	HANKERING	11%	8/1	4/1
6	HARBOR CODE	9%	10/1	5/1
8	MEEKING	8%	12/1	8/1
7	AMIGO G A	7%	15/1	20/1
5	TYPHOON TOMMY	7%	15/1	8/1
4	ROCKABILLY REBAL	6%	15/1	30/1
3	MACHO MAN	6%	15/1	12/1
11	AUDIBLE SILENCE	5%	20/1	20/1

R8Scramble2GABRIEL'S GIFT17%5/17/2

Wide-open heat; no separation we'd trust.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
2	GABRIEL'S GIFT	17%	5/1	7/2
6	HERE ON BUSINESS	13%	13/2	5/1
8	FORD FRENZY	11%	15/2	6/1
11	DELANEYS DREAMER	9%	10/1	8/1
4	LITTLE JUSTIN	9%	11/1	8/1
1	TALL FOREST	8%	11/1	8/1
10	CARDBOARD TOMMY	7%	12/1	10/1
12	ONE MORE ZINGER	6%	15/1	12/1
5	CORNEALEUSTHEGREAT	6%	15/1	12/1
7	QUALITY GOLD	5%	20/1	12/1
3	SEAVER WAY	4%	20/1	20/1
9	TIGER TO YOU	4%	25/1	20/1

R9Scramble5KING OF GOSFORD20%4/15/2

Wide-open heat; no separation we'd trust.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
5	KING OF GOSFORD	20%	4/1	5/2
1	FREEDOM'S NOT FREE	19%	9/2	5/1
8	FIRST PEACE	14%	6/1	4/1
2	ATITLAN	14%	13/2	6/1
6	MI HERMANO RAMON	9%	10/1	5/1
9	AMERICAN HOPE	7%	12/1	12/1
4	ARTISLAS	6%	15/1	12/1
3	TWIRLING POINT	6%	15/1	12/1
7	CAPTAIN CHOOCHIES	5%	20/1	12/1

R10Scramble5LETMEIN17%5/14/1

Wide-open heat; no separation we'd trust.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
5	LETMEIN	17%	5/1	4/1
6	CRUISIN FOR CALI	17%	5/1	5/2
8	HERE'S SOME MORE	13%	13/2	8/1
4	PALMER BEACH	12%	15/2	8/1
1	GOT'M COT'M	11%	8/1	8/1
7	CHARLIE FOXTROT	10%	9/1	8/1
3	CHAPTER ONE	10%	9/1	7/2
2	NEED MO DIAMONDS	5%	20/1	20/1
9	JOHNLINO	5%	20/1	20/1