We lose most single flags — that’s expected. The edge is price: when we’re right, the board paid more than fair. Our 30% picks win about 30% (see the calibration curve), and every call is graded against the closing odds — wins and losses.
No set price. On the tote you’re paid the closing odds, so the edge isn’t a line you beat early — it’s the gap between our fair number and where the crowd lands. We grade each flag against the actual close.
Our last miss: SAR R11 Tuthilltown, flagged at 12/1, didn’t win — on the record like every call.
Edge Card v0 is a transparent heuristic, not a trained model: Prime-Power softmax blended 65/35 with the de-vigged morning line, plus published rules-based pace and trainer-form adjustments (the trainer angle is used as a model input; the raw figure is never published). Constants on the methodology page. Structured analysis, not proven edge; tracked publicly either way.
It reads Brisnet figures, pace, and trainer form — not jockey, trip, or track bias yet; those arrive with the trained v1 model. The trainer angle is used as a model input only; we never publish the raw figure. Fair odds are 1 ÷ our win probability.
The hold/shorten read on each flag is an early signal from its committed board price — long-priced flags the crowd leaves alone tend to hold, short ones get bet down. It’s a heuristic on a small sample; every call is graded on the record.
Model v0-heuristic-1.4 · cfg aab788cb · code d51a4d10 · takeout (SAR) win 16% / exacta 18.5% · card SHA-256 833504d9e1be… · Scratch status checked at 11:34 AM ET. Late scratches void at scoring; the card is never edited.
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No qualifying flags today (published thresholds not met). Pass is a position.
The rest of the card our read on every race — analysis, not a bet
R1—PASS - WET-DIRT CONDITIONS NOT YET VALIDATED. NYRA reports the main track SLOPPY (rain, 64F). The frozen public model carries no track-condition input and was not fit on off going, so it is not validated here.
R2—PASS - SURFACE SWITCH AND FIELD RECONSTRUCTION OUTSIDE CURRENT VALIDATED SCOPE. NYRA moved this race off the turf; the entered population was assembled for turf and the field is materially reconstructed.
R3—PASS - WET-DIRT CONDITIONS NOT YET VALIDATED. NYRA reports the main track SLOPPY (rain, 64F). The frozen public model carries no track-condition input and was not fit on off going, so it is not validated here.
R4—PASS - WET-DIRT CONDITIONS NOT YET VALIDATED. NYRA reports the main track SLOPPY (rain, 64F). The frozen public model carries no track-condition input and was not fit on off going, so it is not validated here.
R5—PASS - SURFACE SWITCH AND FIELD RECONSTRUCTION OUTSIDE CURRENT VALIDATED SCOPE. NYRA moved this race off the turf; the entered population was assembled for turf and the field is materially reconstructed.
R6—PASS - WET-DIRT CONDITIONS NOT YET VALIDATED. NYRA reports the main track SLOPPY (rain, 64F). The frozen public model carries no track-condition input and was not fit on off going, so it is not validated here.
R7—PASS - WET-DIRT CONDITIONS NOT YET VALIDATED. NYRA reports the main track SLOPPY (rain, 64F). The frozen public model carries no track-condition input and was not fit on off going, so it is not validated here.
R8—RACE CANCELLED - NYRA daily notes: race 8 is cancelled. No selections, no analysis.
R9—PASS - SURFACE SWITCH AND FIELD RECONSTRUCTION OUTSIDE CURRENT VALIDATED SCOPE. NYRA moved this race off the turf; the entered population was assembled for turf and the field is materially reconstructed.
Edge Card
Quantitative horse-racing analysis for adults. You must be 18 or older (21+ where required by your state) to enter.
