How these numbers are made (v0). Edge Card v0 is a transparent heuristic, not a trained model: we convert Brisnet's published power ratings into within-race probabilities, blend them 40/60 with the de-vigged morning line, and apply a published rules-based pace adjustment computed from early-pace figures. Every constant is on this page, every pick is timestamped before post time, and every result — wins and losses — is archived and scored against closing odds. A trained, walk-forward-validated model (v1) replaces this in August; until then, treat these as structured analysis, not proven edge.
Per betting interest, within each race: p_pp = softmax(power / tau), p_ml = devig(morning line), p_base = w·p_pp + (1−w)·p_ml, p_v0 = renormalize(p_base · pace_adj). Fair odds = 1 / p_v0.
| Blend weight on power rating (w) | 0.4 |
|---|---|
| Softmax temperature (tau) | 10.0 |
| Missing-figure fallback | ml |
| Pace front-runner rule | field_relative |
| Front-runner: early-pace within N of race top | 5.0 |
| Contested pace when ≥ | 3 early types |
| Contested: closer boost / early penalty | ×1.1 / ×0.9 |
| Lone-speed gap / boost | 8.0 / ×1.15 |
| Per-interest pace clamp | [0.85, 1.15] |
| Flag: minimum edge / minimum p | 3 pts / 10% |
| Flag: minimum odds multiplier | ×1.25 of fair |
| Max flags per card | 4 |
We report market drift vs. morning line — not CLV. At a mid-morning publish there is no bettable price; the morning line is a handicapper's estimate. Drift asks whether the money moved toward our flag after we published. A change to any constant above is a new model version, disclosed here before it affects a card.
Computed from licensed Brisnet data — derived figures only; raw vendor ratings are never republished.
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