Saratoga & Del Mar · 2026 · Model v0-heuristic-1.4 the anti-tout · locked before post, every pick graded
EdgeCardHQ

Del Mar, Thu Aug 27, 2026

2 value plays today · 6 races we're passing
StatusCompleted · races run
First post5:00 PM ET
Scratch checkNot yet confirmed
Archived card · races already run

These plays were published and locked before first post on Thu Aug 27, 2026. They are kept exactly as published, wins and losses alike, and are no longer actionable. Prices shown were the qualifying prices at publication.

Every selection we have ever published is graded on the record. The methodology is on the methodology page.

Edge of the Day
4JET BLACK JEWEL
Race 5 · 1 1/16 miles turf
32%model2/1fair3/1boardWINpaid at the close
Our biggest edge on the card today (+12 pts over the board), the price may move either way into post; you’re paid the close. Chosen by rule: the flag with the most value, graded like any other.
Today at Del MarPatchy Fog then Mostly Sunny, 85°F, wind 0 to 10 mph · rain 2%, no off-track flagNWS forecast
Flags 2 of 8 races
Today’s plays2 flags
RaceHorseModelBoardEdge
R17Silkie Sevei30%3/1+10 ptsR54Jet Black Jewel32%3/1+12 pts
Price may move All 2 flags today. A mid board price, it can hold or shorten into post. You are paid the closing price either way, so bet the horse and take the number you get.
Race 1 · 1 1/16 miles · turf · Maiden claiming $62,500FlagShare
7SILKIE SEVEI
Model
Fair
Board
30%
5/2
3/1
our win %
break-even
the morning line
▸ WIN BET · paid at the close
shorterlonger, pays more5/2 break-even3/1 board
Price may move
Ranks #1 in our power figure blend; closer in a contested-pace setup.
Data · Brisnet
How it sets up
Contested3 of 8 want the lead
Go forward356
Pace helps4

Three of the 8 are entitled to the early lead, so the early fractions over a mile and a sixteenth on turf in a $62,500 maiden claimer should be contested rather than soft.

The model’s read ▾

SILKIE SEVEI is one of the more likely winners we flag today, and the board still prices it like a longer shot. The gap is smaller in points than some, but it is on a horse we genuinely rate to win.

It tops our own win number, 11.2 points clear of the next one, and with 3 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.

3 of the 8 want the front over a mile and a sixteenth on turf, so the early fractions should be honest.

Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoardWorks
7SILKIE SEVEI 30%5/23/16/19·6d
5JASMINE19%9/25/21/82·6d
6MOLLY E12%15/28/11/10·6d
8AUTHENTIC GRACE10%9/16/11/1·6d
4ALYN'S GIRL9%10/18/13/4·6d
2CAVES9%10/15/11/17·6d
1KIZAZI6%15/112/18/9·11d
3RONILLA4%20/18/11/3·8d
Race 5 · 1 1/16 miles · turf · Maiden claiming $62,500FlagShare
4JET BLACK JEWEL
Model
Fair
Board
32%
2/1
3/1
our win %
break-even
the morning line
▸ WIN BET · paid at the close
shorterlonger, pays more2/1 break-even3/1 board
Price may move
Ranks #1 in our power figure blend; closer in a contested-pace setup.
Data · Brisnet
How it sets up
Contested3 of 8 want the lead
Go forward2
Pace helps134

The early fractions over a mile and a sixteenth on turf in a $62,500 maiden claimer should be contested rather than soft, with three of the 8 entitled to the early lead.

The model’s read ▾

This is the widest gap on today’s card. When our number is that far clear of the board, the disagreement is the whole reason to be here.

It tops our own win number, 15.3 points clear of the next one, and with 3 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.

3 of the 8 want the front over a mile and a sixteenth on turf, and this one profiles to come from off it, so we pushed its number up for that (×1.1).

Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoardWorks
4JET BLACK JEWEL 32%2/13/11/17·7d
3ASTRONOMICALLY16%5/14/13/7·5d
5GOLDEN HOPE13%13/27/215/116·48d
1STORM LADY13%7/16/12/4·7d
2VELVET REIGN11%8/14/11/38·7d
7CUBAN FLAME8%11/18/13/5·10d
8SPRINGLINE4%25/112/111/138·13d
6SUNNY CREED3%30/120/15/30·11d
What to know about each race today
R11 1/16 miles turfMaiden claiming $62,500
  • 3Ronillafirst start on turf · first start at a mile or longer · new barn since the last start, now with Patrick Gallagher
R21 mile dirtMaiden special weight

3 of the 5 have never gone a mile or longer

  • 5Ms Liubottom third of this field on breeding for the trip · blinkers on
  • 1Lunar Velocitytop third of this field on breeding for the trip
R35 furlongs turfMaiden special weight

3 of the 9 have never raced on turf

  • 7Nicholsbottom third of this field on turf breeding
  • 8You Want Somebottom third of this field on turf breeding
R46 1/2 furlongs dirtClaiming $50,000
  • 1L Rankinfirst start in 9 months · first-time Lasix
  • 3Sendit Moup from $16,000 to $50,000 off a win · claimed last time out
  • 7Opus Unodrops from $125,000 to $50,000 off a 4th · first start in 8 months
  • 2Wall Streetclaimed last time out
  • 6Sammy Davisblinkers on
R51 1/16 miles turfMaiden claiming $62,500
  • 7Cuban Flamefirst start on turf · first start at a mile or longer · top third of this field on turf breeding · new barn since the last start, now with Leonard Powell · first-time Lasix
  • 3Astronomicallyclaimed last time out
  • 6Sunny Creedblinkers on
  • 8Springlineup from $20,000 to $50,000 off a second
R66 furlongs dirtClaiming $12,500

4 of the 9 were claimed last time out

  • 3Kahuna Magicup from $6,250 to $10,500 off a 7th · blinkers on
  • 8Swaggishup from $6,250 to $12,500 off a third
R71 1/16 miles turfOptional claiming $50,000
  • 4Hello Kid O Kid Onew barn since the last start, now with Mike Puype
  • 7Cat The Confidantewent off at 2/1 last time and finished 5th
R81 mile dirtClaiming $16,000, non-winners of three lifetime

3 of the 10 were claimed last time out

Facts about the race, not predictions. A class move is shown with the finish it came off so you can judge it; we do not claim any of these wins, and only the flagged win bets above are graded on the record.

The whole card every runner, our number beside the board
Every runner on the card: our win probability and fair odds beside the morning line, with the edge between them. Sortable by any column.
R#HorseModelFairBoardEdgeRankWhyWorks
R11 1/16 miles turfMaiden claiming $62,500Contested pace likely (3 early-speed types)1 flag
R17SILKIE SEVEI30%5/23/1+1016/19·6d
R15JASMINE19%9/25/2-42W1/82·6d
R16MOLLY E12%15/28/1+33W1/10·6d
R18AUTHENTIC GRACE10%9/16/1-14B1/1·6d
R14ALYN'S GIRL9%10/18/105B3/4·6d
R12CAVES9%10/15/1-46W1/17·6d
R11KIZAZI6%15/112/107B8/9·11d
R13RONILLA4%20/18/1-581/3·8d
R21 mile dirtMaiden special weightEven pacepass
R22SUDDEN IMPACT34%2/17/50W2/113·6d
R21LUNAR VELOCITY20%4/14/1+412/12·10d
R23LUXOR MAGIC18%9/27/202W23/28·11d
R24DANIELLE14%6/16/1+338/28·6d
R25MS LIU14%6/13/1-64W1/25·6d
R35 furlongs turfMaiden special weightEven pacepass
R36REPO MAN20%4/13/10W1/45·7d
R35SAN MORITZ19%9/27/2+1BW4/62·5d
R32HOAXER17%5/14/1+1BW1/40·11d
R38YOU WANT SOME15%11/26/1+41W1/15·9d
R33SIR ROCKATAN9%10/18/1014/95·6d
R34MOVINGWITHPURPOSE9%10/18/10W1/27·5d
R31KING ANUNOBY9%10/18/101/9·7d
R37NICHOLS2%50/120/1-2211/78·6d
R39JACK EM UP2%50/120/1-23B2/11·8d
R46 1/2 furlongs dirtClaiming $50,000Contested pace likely (4 early-speed types)pass
R45LIAM SMITH28%5/28/5-3119/89·6d
R43SENDIT MO16%5/14/102W7/116·4d
R46SAMMY DAVIS15%6/15/1+13W3/64·5d
R42WALL STREET12%7/15/1-15W1/37·18d
R44FIONELLO10%9/112/1+4414/60·13d
R47OPUS UNO10%9/16/1-267/47·6d
R41L RANKIN9%10/18/1071/4·6d
R51 1/16 miles turfMaiden claiming $62,500Contested pace likely (3 early-speed types)1 flag
R54JET BLACK JEWEL32%2/13/1+121W1/17·7d
R53ASTRONOMICALLY16%5/14/102B3/7·5d
R55GOLDEN HOPE13%13/27/2-5415/116·48d
R51STORM LADY13%7/16/1+13B2/4·7d
R52VELVET REIGN11%8/14/1-55W1/38·7d
R57CUBAN FLAME8%11/18/1-13/5·10d
R58SPRINGLINE4%25/112/1-27BW11/138·13d
R56SUNNY CREED3%30/120/1-165/30·11d
R66 furlongs dirtClaiming $12,500Lone speedpass
R61THE BIG CHEESEOLA17%5/15/1+41W1/21·5d
R66GYPSY TEARS17%5/13/1-32W33/38·50d
R62YA'LL COME14%6/17/2-3313/44·9d
R67GEEZER12%7/15/1-14W8/105·11d
R65CHECK'S ON THE WAY9%10/18/1067/18·7d
R68SWAGGISH8%11/112/1+251/2·9d
R69NO MORE DING DONGS8%12/16/1-497/10·6d
R64NOVINOPHOBIA8%12/115/1+37W4/5·11d
R63KAHUNA MAGIC7%12/115/1+28B8/31·11d
R71 1/16 miles turfOptional claiming $50,000Even pacepass
R77CAT THE CONFIDANTE18%9/24/1+21BW4/45·5d
R78LANILLA17%9/27/2026/28·4d
R79REHEARSAL12%15/25/1-137/8·5d
R71WINIKA11%8/15/1-25BW7/106·5d
R74HELLO KID O KID O9%11/115/1+44W21/25·7d
R75SPECIALTY8%12/112/1+16B1/7·12d
R710SHINING RIVER7%12/18/1-1810/45·7d
R73LADY MARYANN7%15/112/1+1772/106·12d
R72HEAVENLY BELLE6%15/18/1-31023/80·6d
R76INTERPLAY5%20/112/1-19BW1/33·7d
R81 mile dirtClaiming $16,000, non-winners of three lifetimeContested pace likely (6 early-speed types)pass
R86MIO BAMBINO18%9/27/2015/8·7d
R87SOUTHERN MELODEE14%6/14/1-22B3/12·11d
R85STAY FOR THE BOOM12%7/18/1+34W26/26·6d
R82STAGGER LEE11%15/28/1+3320/26·7d
R88COURT OF APPEAL11%8/16/1-16W2/35·6d
R89RHYTHEM ON STAGE9%10/18/105W4/80·6d
R83BOWTIE BOYS7%12/16/1-48W2/77·7d
R84MILLBO BAGGINS6%15/112/107B27/83·32d
R810TIGGRRR WHITWORTH6%15/110/1-195/13·7d
R81TEE N OFF4%20/120/1+110W21/22·15d

Rank is our power-figure blend, 1 is best. Why reads left to right: whether the pace shape helps (▲) or hurts (▼), the barn (B) and the morning (W). Green is positive, red negative, and BLANK means we have nothing to say, so only rows with signal carry a mark. Model and Fair are ours; Board is the morning line.

Price your own ticket

The exotics builder, the sequence builder and the style ranker all run against this card, 8 races of it, at the real minimum and the real takeout. They live on one page so there is one of each to trust.

Open the builders →

The rest of the card our read on every race: analysis, not a bet
R2Chalk2Sudden Impact34%2/17/5
How it sets up
dirtEven pace1 of 5 shows early speed, short of contested

No one horse is entitled to the lead. A field this small should mean a clean trip for everyone, which puts the weight back on ability. Only one has shown genuine early speed, without enough company to rate the race contested.

The board and our number agree in a maiden special weight. A short field of five.
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoardWorks
2SUDDEN IMPACT34%2/17/52/113·6d
1LUNAR VELOCITY20%4/14/12/12·10d
3LUXOR MAGIC18%9/27/223/28·11d
4DANIELLE14%6/16/18/28·6d
5MS LIU14%6/13/11/25·6d
R3Scramble6Repo Man20%4/13/1
How it sets up
turfEven pacenone of the 9 shows early speed

Nobody in here is clearly entitled to the lead. Nothing in here has shown real early speed on the figures the model reads.

An open heat. Nothing separates the top two by more than 1.0 point. We make the top one 20% against the board's 20%.
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoardWorks
6REPO MAN20%4/13/11/45·7d
5SAN MORITZ19%9/27/24/62·5d
2HOAXER17%5/14/11/40·11d
8YOU WANT SOME15%11/26/11/15·9d
3SIR ROCKATAN9%10/18/114/95·6d
4MOVINGWITHPURPOSE9%10/18/11/27·5d
1KING ANUNOBY9%10/18/11/9·7d
7NICHOLS2%50/120/111/78·6d
9JACK EM UP2%50/120/12/11·8d
R4Chalk5Liam Smith28%5/28/5
How it sets up
dirtContested4 of 7 want the lead
Go forward23567
Pace helps1

Four of the 7 are entitled to the early lead, so the opening quarter over six and a half furlongs on dirt in a $50,000 claimer should be contested rather than soft.

The board and our number agree in a $50,000 claimer. Four horses want the front, so the early fractions should be honest.
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoardWorks
5LIAM SMITH28%5/28/519/89·6d
3SENDIT MO16%5/14/17/116·4d
6SAMMY DAVIS15%6/15/13/64·5d
2WALL STREET12%7/15/11/37·18d
4FIONELLO10%9/112/114/60·13d
7OPUS UNO10%9/16/17/47·6d
1L RANKIN9%10/18/11/4·6d
R6Lean1The Big Cheeseola17%5/15/1
How it sets up
dirtLone speedone gets loose on the lead, 9 going
Alone on the lead1

One of the 9 looks alone on the lead, clear of the field on the early figures over six furlongs on dirt, with nothing else in here entitled to go with it.

Our top-rated horse in a $12,500 claimer. One horse looks alone on the lead, which our pace adjustment credits. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 4 points.
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoardWorks
1THE BIG CHEESEOLA17%5/15/11/21·5d
6GYPSY TEARS17%5/13/133/38·50d
2YA'LL COME14%6/17/213/44·9d
7GEEZER12%7/15/18/105·11d
5CHECK'S ON THE WAY9%10/18/17/18·7d
8SWAGGISH8%11/112/11/2·9d
9NO MORE DING DONGS8%12/16/17/10·6d
4NOVINOPHOBIA8%12/115/14/5·11d
3KAHUNA MAGIC7%12/115/18/31·11d
R7Lean7Cat The Confidante18%9/24/1
How it sets up
turfEven pace1 of 10 shows early speed, short of contested

Nothing in here has a clear claim on the lead. A field this size means traffic is the risk in here, not the pace. Only one has shown genuine early speed, without enough company to rate the race contested.

Our top-rated horse in a $50,000 optional claimer. We make the top one 18% against the board's 16%. The barn's angle in this exact spot is among the best in the field. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 2 points.
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoardWorks
7CAT THE CONFIDANTE18%9/24/14/45·5d
8LANILLA17%9/27/26/28·4d
9REHEARSAL12%15/25/17/8·5d
1WINIKA11%8/15/17/106·5d
4HELLO KID O KID O9%11/115/121/25·7d
5SPECIALTY8%12/112/11/7·12d
10SHINING RIVER7%12/18/110/45·7d
3LADY MARYANN7%15/112/172/106·12d
2HEAVENLY BELLE6%15/18/123/80·6d
6INTERPLAY5%20/112/11/33·7d
R8Scramble6Mio Bambino18%9/27/2
How it sets up
dirtContested6 of 10 want the lead
Go forward37
Pace helps568

Six of the 10 are entitled to the early lead, so the early fractions over a mile on dirt in a $16,000 claimer should be contested rather than soft.

A full field of ten. Nothing separates the top two by more than 3.9 points. Six horses want the front, so the early fractions should be honest.
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoardWorks
6MIO BAMBINO18%9/27/25/8·7d
7SOUTHERN MELODEE14%6/14/13/12·11d
5STAY FOR THE BOOM12%7/18/126/26·6d
2STAGGER LEE11%15/28/120/26·7d
8COURT OF APPEAL11%8/16/12/35·6d
9RHYTHEM ON STAGE9%10/18/14/80·6d
3BOWTIE BOYS7%12/16/12/77·7d
4MILLBO BAGGINS6%15/112/127/83·32d
10TIGGRRR WHITWORTH6%15/110/15/13·7d
1TEE N OFF4%20/120/121/22·15d

Model v0-heuristic-1.4 · cfg aab788cb · code 76ca96f3 · takeout (DMR) win 15.43% / exacta 22.68% · card SHA-256 432d7a35925f… · Scratch status has not yet been confirmed. Late scratches void at scoring; the card is never edited.

Edge Card runs a proprietary pre-race probability process: market expectations combined with licensed past-performance, pace, field-composition and connections information, evaluated within each race. Exact implementation details are not published. Structured analysis, not a proven edge; tracked publicly either way. How to read this card · the method in full · every call graded

Verifying this card

Downloadable artifact hash432d7a35925f557017e69a9fe0233c0ccef8caf3d1e1cf27563bff266f0151fe
OpenTimestamps statusOpenTimestamps calendar commitment; Bitcoin confirmation pending
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