Saratoga, Thu Aug 20, 2026
These plays were published and locked before first post on Thu Aug 20, 2026. They are kept exactly as published, wins and losses alike, and are no longer actionable. Prices shown were the qualifying prices at publication.
Every selection we have ever published is graded on the record. The methodology is on the methodology page.
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One of the 4 looks alone on the lead, clear of the field on the early figures over a mile on dirt, with nothing else in here entitled to go with it.
The model’s read ▾
OATH is one of the more likely winners we flag today, and the board still prices it like a longer shot. The gap is smaller in points than some, but it is on a horse we genuinely rate to win.
It tops our own win number, 32.9 points clear of the next one, in a race where one of them looks like getting loose on the lead.
In a field of 4 it profiles as the lone speed over a mile on dirt, likely uncontested on the front end, and we bumped it for that (×1.15).
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | OATH ◀ | 52% | 1/1 | 9/5 |
| 7 | READY ROSIE JANE | 19% | 9/2 | 4/1 |
| 2 | ESSENCE L VEE | 15% | 11/2 | 10/1 |
| 1 | SPIRIT FORWARD | 14% | 6/1 | 5/1 |
Nobody in here is clearly entitled to the lead. Two have shown early speed, under the count that would rate the race contested.
It rates third on our own win number, 20.7 points behind the top.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | DEPORTED | 37% | 9/5 | 8/5 |
| 5 | ESCAPADES | 31% | 2/1 | 2/1 |
| 1 | HIMOTHY ◀ | 16% | 5/1 | 10/1 |
| 3 | OLIGARCH | 9% | 10/1 | 5/1 |
| 6 | SUNSHINE BOBALOU | 5% | 20/1 | 30/1 |
| 8 | NOD TO TRAN | 2% | 50/1 | 20/1 |
| 2 | YAHEARMENOW | 1% | 99/1 | 50/1 |
No one horse is entitled to the lead. Two have shown early speed, under the count that would rate the race contested.
The model’s read ▾
This is the widest gap on today’s card. When our number is that far clear of the board, the disagreement is the whole reason to be here.
It tops our own win number, 14.1 points clear of the next one.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | A LITTLE AT FIRST ◀ | 35% | 9/5 | 3/1 |
| 6 | SPIRIT OF NEW YORK | 20% | 4/1 | 6/1 |
| 1 | CHUMMERS | 18% | 9/2 | 3/1 |
| 7 | JAXER | 15% | 11/2 | 5/2 |
| 5 | WIT STORM | 5% | 20/1 | 12/1 |
| 2 | BIG FROSTY | 4% | 25/1 | 20/1 |
| 4 | MISSIONATTHEGLEN | 2% | 50/1 | 30/1 |
Nothing in here has a clear claim on the lead. Two have shown early speed, under the count that would rate the race contested.
It rates second on our own win number, 14.1 points behind the top.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | A LITTLE AT FIRST | 35% | 9/5 | 3/1 |
| 6 | SPIRIT OF NEW YORK ◀ | 20% | 4/1 | 6/1 |
| 1 | CHUMMERS | 18% | 9/2 | 3/1 |
| 7 | JAXER | 15% | 11/2 | 5/2 |
| 5 | WIT STORM | 5% | 20/1 | 12/1 |
| 2 | BIG FROSTY | 4% | 25/1 | 20/1 |
| 4 | MISSIONATTHEGLEN | 2% | 50/1 | 30/1 |
The whole card every runner, our number beside the board
| R | # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Edge | Rank | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R11 mile dirtMaiden claiming $20,000Lone speed1 flag | ||||||||
| R1 | 6 | OATH | 52% | 1/1 | 9/5 | +8 | 1 | ▲B |
| R1 | 7 | READY ROSIE JANE | 19% | 9/2 | 4/1 | -6 | 3 | |
| R1 | 2 | ESSENCE L VEE | 15% | 11/2 | 10/1 | +4 | 2 | |
| R1 | 1 | SPIRIT FORWARD | 14% | 6/1 | 5/1 | -6 | 4 | B |
| R25 1/2 furlongs turfClaiming $40,000, non-winners of two lifetimeEven pacepass | ||||||||
| R2 | 8 | TAMINO | 22% | 7/2 | 7/2 | +4 | 1 | |
| R2 | 6 | LIGHT FANTASTIC | 20% | 4/1 | 3/1 | 0 | 3 | B |
| R2 | 3 | INTO DIAMONDS | 18% | 9/2 | 9/2 | +4 | 2 | |
| R2 | 4 | ARMET | 15% | 11/2 | 4/1 | -1 | 4 | B |
| R2 | 7 | HONG KONG PHOOEY | 8% | 11/1 | 8/1 | -1 | 6 | |
| R2 | 5 | TWO DUCKS | 8% | 12/1 | 10/1 | +1 | 5 | B |
| R2 | 1 | NIGHT | 6% | 15/1 | 5/1 | -7 | 8 | B |
| R2 | 2 | OUT OF THE FOG | 4% | 25/1 | 20/1 | 0 | 7 | |
| R36 furlongs dirtMaiden claiming $35,000Even pacepass | ||||||||
| R3 | 3 | MAX O NIDAS | 32% | 2/1 | 8/5 | 0 | ||
| R3 | 6 | MADDENBLEU | 24% | 3/1 | 5/2 | 0 | ||
| R3 | 4 | PARKRIDGE | 16% | 11/2 | 4/1 | -1 | 1 | B |
| R3 | 1 | MEDIEVAL | 13% | 7/1 | 6/1 | +1 | 2 | |
| R3 | 2 | BOER WAR | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | 0 | ||
| R3 | 7 | LOAN RANGER | 6% | 15/1 | 15/1 | 0 | 3 | B |
| R46 1/2 furlongs dirtMaiden special weightEven pacepass | ||||||||
| R4 | 4 | CASH BURN | 30% | 5/2 | 8/5 | 0 | ||
| R4 | 2 | DRY DRASTIC | 26% | 3/1 | 2/1 | 0 | ||
| R4 | 5 | SECRET CONNECTION | 12% | 15/2 | 5/1 | -1 | 1 | |
| R4 | 3 | CHIC IN MOTION | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | 0 | ||
| R4 | 1 | EARLY RETURNS | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | 0 | ||
| R4 | 6 | EARLY AND OFTEN | 10% | 9/1 | 8/1 | +1 | 2 | B |
| R55 1/2 furlongs turfMaiden claiming $55,000Even pace1 flag | ||||||||
| R5 | 7 | DEPORTED | 37% | 9/5 | 8/5 | +1 | B | |
| R5 | 5 | ESCAPADES | 31% | 2/1 | 2/1 | 0 | 1 | B |
| R5 | 1 | HIMOTHY | 16% | 5/1 | 10/1 | +8 | 2 | |
| R5 | 3 | OLIGARCH | 9% | 10/1 | 5/1 | -7 | 3 | B |
| R5 | 6 | SUNSHINE BOBALOU | 5% | 20/1 | 30/1 | +2 | 4 | B |
| R5 | 8 | NOD TO TRAN | 2% | 50/1 | 20/1 | -2 | 5 | B |
| R5 | 2 | YAHEARMENOW | 1% | 99/1 | 50/1 | -1 | 6 | |
| R61 mile dirtOptional claiming $45,000, non-winners of two other than maiden, claiming or starterContested pace likely (3 early-speed types)pass | ||||||||
| R6 | 2 | VALTELLINA | 43% | 6/5 | 1/1 | +4 | 1 | ▲ |
| R6 | 1 | BOXED WINE | 15% | 11/2 | 9/2 | +1 | 2 | ▲ |
| R6 | 6 | PRINCESS BECCA | 12% | 7/1 | 7/2 | -5 | 4 | |
| R6 | 3 | SWEETEST PRINCESS | 11% | 15/2 | 5/1 | -2 | 5 | B |
| R6 | 4 | HELLO BEAUTY | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | +1 | 3 | |
| R6 | 5 | GIANT AT WORK | 9% | 11/1 | 10/1 | +1 | 6 | ▲ |
| R71 mile turfStakes, $150,000 purseEven pace2 flags | ||||||||
| R7 | 3 | A LITTLE AT FIRST | 35% | 9/5 | 3/1 | +12 | 1 | |
| R7 | 6 | SPIRIT OF NEW YORK | 20% | 4/1 | 6/1 | +7 | 2 | B |
| R7 | 1 | CHUMMERS | 18% | 9/2 | 3/1 | -5 | 3 | |
| R7 | 7 | JAXER | 15% | 11/2 | 5/2 | -11 | 4 | |
| R7 | 5 | WIT STORM | 5% | 20/1 | 12/1 | -2 | 5 | B |
| R7 | 2 | BIG FROSTY | 4% | 25/1 | 20/1 | -1 | 6 | |
| R7 | 4 | MISSIONATTHEGLEN | 2% | 50/1 | 30/1 | -1 | 7 | |
| R85 1/2 furlongs turfOptional claiming $45,000Contested pace likely (4 early-speed types)pass | ||||||||
| R8 | 2 | SHE'S GOT WILL | 28% | 5/2 | 3/1 | +5 | 1 | ▲B |
| R8 | 9 | FROM SCRATCH | 16% | 11/2 | 5/1 | 0 | 2 | ▼ |
| R8 | 8 | RIVER SEINE | 15% | 6/1 | 7/2 | -6 | 3 | ▼ |
| R8 | 4 | RIVER TAY | 11% | 15/2 | 10/1 | +3 | 4 | ▲ |
| R8 | 5 | JUST ADD WATER | 10% | 9/1 | 10/1 | +1 | 6 | |
| R8 | 6 | GRACIE'S DELIGHT | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | -1 | 5 | ▼ |
| R8 | 3 | MIDNIGHTLOVEAFFAIR | 8% | 12/1 | 10/1 | -1 | 7 | |
| R8 | 7 | QUICK POWER NAP | 3% | 30/1 | 20/1 | -1 | 8 | B |
Rank is our power-figure blend, 1 is best. Why reads left to right: whether the pace shape helps (▲) or hurts (▼), the barn (B) and the morning (W). Green is positive, red negative, and BLANK means we have nothing to say, so only rows with signal carry a mark. Model and Fair are ours; Board is the morning line.
Price your own ticket
The exotics builder, the sequence builder and the style ranker all run against this card, 8 races of it, at the real minimum and the real takeout. They live on one page so there is one of each to trust.
No runner here is entitled to the lead on the early figures. Two have shown early speed, under the count that would rate the race contested.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | TAMINO | 22% | 7/2 | 7/2 |
| 6 | LIGHT FANTASTIC | 20% | 4/1 | 3/1 |
| 3 | INTO DIAMONDS | 18% | 9/2 | 9/2 |
| 4 | ARMET | 15% | 11/2 | 4/1 |
| 7 | HONG KONG PHOOEY | 8% | 11/1 | 8/1 |
| 5 | TWO DUCKS | 8% | 12/1 | 10/1 |
| 1 | NIGHT | 6% | 15/1 | 5/1 |
| 2 | OUT OF THE FOG | 4% | 25/1 | 20/1 |
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | MAX O NIDAS | 32% | 2/1 | 8/5 |
| 6 | MADDENBLEU | 24% | 3/1 | 5/2 |
| 4 | PARKRIDGE | 16% | 11/2 | 4/1 |
| 1 | MEDIEVAL | 13% | 7/1 | 6/1 |
| 2 | BOER WAR | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 |
| 7 | LOAN RANGER | 6% | 15/1 | 15/1 |
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | CASH BURN | 30% | 5/2 | 8/5 |
| 2 | DRY DRASTIC | 26% | 3/1 | 2/1 |
| 5 | SECRET CONNECTION | 12% | 15/2 | 5/1 |
| 3 | CHIC IN MOTION | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 |
| 1 | EARLY RETURNS | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 |
| 6 | EARLY AND OFTEN | 10% | 9/1 | 8/1 |
Three of the 6 are entitled to the early lead, so the early fractions over a mile on dirt in a $45,000 allowance optional claimer should be contested rather than soft.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | VALTELLINA | 43% | 6/5 | 1/1 |
| 1 | BOXED WINE | 15% | 11/2 | 9/2 |
| 6 | PRINCESS BECCA | 12% | 7/1 | 7/2 |
| 3 | SWEETEST PRINCESS | 11% | 15/2 | 5/1 |
| 4 | HELLO BEAUTY | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 |
| 5 | GIANT AT WORK | 9% | 11/1 | 10/1 |
Four of the 8 are entitled to the early lead, so the opening quarter over five and a half furlongs on turf in a $45,000 optional claimer should be contested rather than soft.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | SHE'S GOT WILL | 28% | 5/2 | 3/1 |
| 9 | FROM SCRATCH | 16% | 11/2 | 5/1 |
| 8 | RIVER SEINE | 15% | 6/1 | 7/2 |
| 4 | RIVER TAY | 11% | 15/2 | 10/1 |
| 5 | JUST ADD WATER | 10% | 9/1 | 10/1 |
| 6 | GRACIE'S DELIGHT | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 |
| 3 | MIDNIGHTLOVEAFFAIR | 8% | 12/1 | 10/1 |
| 7 | QUICK POWER NAP | 3% | 30/1 | 20/1 |
Model v0-heuristic-1.4 · cfg aab788cb · code d22ad90a · takeout (SAR) win 16% / exacta 18.5% · card SHA-256 caadf63dc0d6… · Scratch status checked at 10:06 AM ET. Late scratches void at scoring; the card is never edited.
Verifying this card
| Downloadable artifact hash | caadf63dc0d61a6a69664a7df2865ae8fc204dfd0ebb17b75ee843b4f6d776bd |
|---|---|
| OpenTimestamps status | OpenTimestamps calendar commitment; Bitcoin confirmation pending |