Del Mar, Thu Aug 20, 2026

8 races · published 11:04 AM ET · card locked

3 value plays today · 5 races we're passing

StatusCompleted · races run

First post5:00 PM ET

Scratch checkChecked · 11:02 AM ET

Archived card · races already run

These plays were published and locked before first post on Thu Aug 20, 2026. They are kept exactly as published, wins and losses alike, and are no longer actionable. Prices shown were the qualifying prices at publication.

Every selection we have ever published is graded on the record. The methodology is on the methodology page.

Edge of the Day

9MISSED FORTUNE

Race 3 · 1 mile turf

33%model2/1fair7/2boardWINpaid at the close

Our biggest edge on the card today (+16 pts over the board), the crowd will likely bet it down, so expect a shorter number, so size it smaller. Chosen by rule: the flag with the most value, graded like any other.

Today at Del MarPatchy Fog then Mostly Sunny, 79°F, wind 0 to 10 mph · rain 5%, no off-track flagNWS forecast

Flags 3 of 8 races

New here? How to read a flag · Model, Fair, Board and the pari-mutuel closing rule, explained once.

Today’s plays3 flags

RaceHorseModelBoardEdge

R13Wiki Kane28%5/2+5 pts R39Missed Fortune33%7/2+16 pts R811Birkin Girl21%5/1+8 pts

Race 1 · 5 furlongs · turf · Optional claiming $80,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterFlag

3WIKI KANE

Model

Fair

Board

28%

5/2

our win %

break-even

the morning line

The board and our fair price round to the same number (5/2), so the gap is finer than fractional odds show, it is +5.1 points of win probability, not a longer price.

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down A short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post, pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Even pace2 of 6 show early speed, short of contested

Nobody in here is clearly entitled to the lead. Two have shown early speed, under the count that would rate the race contested.

The model’s read ▾

WIKI KANE is one of the more likely winners we flag today, and the board still prices it like a longer shot. The gap is smaller in points than some, but it is on a horse we genuinely rate to win.

It tops our own win number, 9.2 points clear of the next one.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
3	WIKI KANE ◀	28%	5/2	5/2
1	DR. MY EYES	19%	9/2	3/1
7	TAP THE GIN	17%	5/1	4/1
4	CAL'S GOAL	15%	6/1	4/1
6	KILLOURNEY REIGNS	13%	13/2	4/1
2	MIGO	8%	11/1	8/1

Race 3 · 1 mile · turf · Maiden special weightFlag

9MISSED FORTUNE

Model

Fair

Board

33%

2/1

7/2

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down A short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post, pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend. Barn angle strong here

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Even pace1 of 10 shows early speed, short of contested

No one horse is entitled to the lead. A field this size means traffic is the risk in here, not the pace. Only one has shown genuine early speed, without enough company to rate the race contested.

The model’s read ▾

This is the widest gap on today’s card. When our number is that far clear of the board, the disagreement is the whole reason to be here.

It tops our own win number, 17.9 points clear of the next one.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
9	MISSED FORTUNE ◀	33%	2/1	7/2
10	ENJOY THE RIDE	15%	11/2	5/1
5	LYING ZERO	15%	11/2	3/1
1	INSTINCTIVELY	10%	9/1	8/1
6	BELIEVER	8%	11/1	6/1
3	BABY T	6%	15/1	8/1
4	FUMO GRIGIO	5%	20/1	8/1
7	CROSS FEVER	3%	30/1	20/1
2	CITY OF FORZA	2%	50/1	20/1
8	TUDDY	2%	50/1	20/1

Race 8 · 1 1/16 miles · turf · Claiming $25,000, non-winners of two lifetimeFlag

11BIRKIN GIRL

Model

Fair

Board

21%

4/1

5/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Price may move A mid board price, it can hold or shorten into post. You are paid the closing price either way, so bet the horse and take the number you get.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Even pace1 of 9 shows early speed, short of contested

Nothing in here has a clear claim on the lead. Only one has shown genuine early speed, without enough company to rate the race contested.

It tops our own win number, though only just, with 0.3 points in it.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
11	BIRKIN GIRL ◀	21%	4/1	5/1
6	SUNTORY TIME	21%	4/1	7/2
5	GREEN ZONE	18%	9/2	4/1
7	ZARAFA	10%	9/1	10/1
3	SAARISELKA	8%	11/1	8/1
2	EIGHTIES	8%	12/1	8/1
9	ZIGGITY ZAG	7%	15/1	5/1
10	SUGAR REIGN	7%	15/1	8/1
4	TAVOLARA	2%	50/1	15/1

The whole card every runner, our number beside the board

Every runner on the card: our win probability and fair odds beside the morning line, with the edge between them. Sortable by any column.
R	#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board	Edge	Rank	Why
R15 furlongs turfOptional claiming $80,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterEven pace1 flag
R1	3	WIKI KANE	28%	5/2	5/2	+5	1
R1	1	DR. MY EYES	19%	9/2	3/1	-1	2
R1	7	TAP THE GIN	17%	5/1	4/1	+1	3
R1	4	CAL'S GOAL	15%	6/1	4/1	-1	4
R1	6	KILLOURNEY REIGNS	13%	13/2	4/1	-3	5
R1	2	MIGO	8%	11/1	8/1	-1	6
R21 mile dirtMaiden claiming $12,500Contested pace likely (3 early-speed types)pass
R2	5	LADY RUTH	25%	3/1	2/1	-1	1	▲B
R2	2	DANCING WITH SHARI	16%	5/1	4/1	+1	2
R2	3	DAME IT DANI	13%	13/2	5/1	0	3	▲
R2	8	SPUN SWEET	11%	8/1	6/1	0
R2	4	BIG WHOOSH	11%	8/1	6/1	0	4
R2	1	SMOKEM HOT GIRL	7%	12/1	12/1	+1	5	▲
R2	6	HOWMANYMORETIMES	5%	20/1	15/1	0	7
R2	9	PRINCESS BREANNA	5%	20/1	15/1	0	6	▼
R2	7	SKY AT SUNRISE	3%	30/1	20/1	0	8	B
R2	10	STRONG PROOF	3%	30/1	30/1	0	9
R31 mile turfMaiden special weightEven pace1 flag
R3	9	MISSED FORTUNE	33%	2/1	7/2	+16	1	B
R3	10	ENJOY THE RIDE	15%	11/2	5/1	+2	2
R3	5	LYING ZERO	15%	11/2	3/1	-5	3
R3	1	INSTINCTIVELY	10%	9/1	8/1	+1	4
R3	6	BELIEVER	8%	11/1	6/1	-3	5
R3	3	BABY T	6%	15/1	8/1	-2	6
R3	4	FUMO GRIGIO	5%	20/1	8/1	-3	7
R3	7	CROSS FEVER	3%	30/1	20/1	-1	8
R3	2	CITY OF FORZA	2%	50/1	20/1	-2	9	B
R3	8	TUDDY	2%	50/1	20/1	-2	10
R45 1/2 furlongs dirtClaiming $8,000Contested pace likely (4 early-speed types)pass
R4	2	TAPALO	17%	5/1	3/1	-3	1	▼
R4	7	DES DOIGTS	15%	11/2	7/2	-2	2	B
R4	1	KING APOLLO	14%	13/2	4/1	-2	3
R4	3	COME OUT FIGHTING	12%	15/2	5/1	-1	5	▲B
R4	11	NEXT TRICK	9%	10/1	8/1	+1	4
R4	4	WINDRIBBON	7%	15/1	12/1	+1	6
R4	5	MAGIC CONNECTION	6%	15/1	15/1	+1	8
R4	12	SUNSET STORM	5%	20/1	20/1	+1	9	▼
R4	10	DEVIL MOON	5%	20/1	20/1	+1	7	▼B
R4	9	MANDELA EFFECT	4%	20/1	30/1	+2	10
R4	8	MORELLO	4%	25/1	20/1	0	11
R4	6	SPIRITIST	3%	30/1	30/1	0	12
R56 furlongs dirtMaiden claiming $12,500Contested pace likely (3 early-speed types)pass
R5	1	DUKE OF ORLEANS	17%	5/1	3/1	-2	2	▲B
R5	5	HE'S GOT FIRE	15%	11/2	7/2	-2	1	▼
R5	9	VICTORIA'S ROCKET	12%	15/2	5/1	-1	4
R5	6	HUNGOVER	10%	9/1	6/1	-1	3	▼
R5	8	CARDBOARD TOMMY	9%	10/1	8/1	0	7
R5	2	PROOF HE'S FAST	9%	10/1	8/1	0	5	▼B
R5	7	SMOKEM AND LOVE	8%	11/1	15/1	+3	6	▲B
R5	3	READYTOBOARD	6%	15/1	20/1	+2	8	▼
R5	11	WICKED SPUD	4%	25/1	20/1	0	9	▲B
R5	12	FOREGONECONCLUSION	4%	25/1	20/1	0
R5	10	NAUDESNOODLE	4%	30/1	20/1	0	10
R5	4	RAND GOOD	2%	30/1	30/1	0	11
R65 1/2 furlongs dirtMaiden claiming $50,000Even pacepass
R6	2	VEGAS DEL ORO	20%	4/1	7/2	+2	1
R6	8	THIRSTY ETERNA	17%	5/1	4/1	+1	2
R6	10	PALO ALTO BABY	12%	15/2	6/1	0		B
R6	7	SHEMAKESMEMAD	11%	8/1	5/1	-2	3
R6	4	DONT SHORT UR SELF	9%	10/1	6/1	-2	5
R6	1	EAST WITTON	9%	10/1	8/1	0
R6	3	ZAYDA AT THE SPA	7%	12/1	12/1	+1	4
R6	6	TAM'S SWISS MISS	6%	15/1	12/1	0	6
R6	5	RABBIT TAIL	5%	20/1	15/1	0
R6	9	SMOKEM JEANNINE	5%	20/1	15/1	0	7	B
R71 mile dirtOptional claiming $20,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterContested pace likely (4 early-speed types)pass
R7	7	PRINCE DOLCE	18%	9/2	5/1	+4	1
R7	2	WINNING PATRIOT	16%	11/2	3/1	-4	3	B
R7	5	MAJESTIC PALISADES	14%	6/1	6/1	+3	2
R7	1	FIGHT BACK	14%	6/1	4/1	-2	5	▲B
R7	9	FUMANO'S MAGIC	11%	15/2	6/1	0	4
R7	3	RODRIGOKNOWS	9%	11/1	8/1	0	7	▲
R7	6	SILVER I AM	7%	15/1	8/1	-2	9
R7	8	PRACTICAL BLAME	6%	15/1	12/1	0	8	▲B
R7	4	CAGEY BURGLAR	6%	15/1	20/1	+2	6	▼
R81 1/16 miles turfClaiming $25,000, non-winners of two lifetimeEven pace1 flag
R8	11	BIRKIN GIRL	21%	4/1	5/1	+8	1
R8	6	SUNTORY TIME	21%	4/1	7/2	+3	2
R8	5	GREEN ZONE	18%	9/2	4/1	+2	3
R8	7	ZARAFA	10%	9/1	10/1	+2	4
R8	3	SAARISELKA	8%	11/1	8/1	-1	5
R8	2	EIGHTIES	8%	12/1	8/1	-1	6
R8	9	ZIGGITY ZAG	7%	15/1	5/1	-7	8	B
R8	10	SUGAR REIGN	7%	15/1	8/1	-2	7
R8	4	TAVOLARA	2%	50/1	15/1	-3	9

Rank is our power-figure blend, 1 is best. Why reads left to right: whether the pace shape helps (▲) or hurts (▼), the barn (B) and the morning (W). Green is positive, red negative, and BLANK means we have nothing to say, so only rows with signal carry a mark. Model and Fair are ours; Board is the morning line.

Price your own ticket

The exotics builder, the sequence builder and the style ranker all run against this card, 8 races of it, at the real minimum and the real takeout. They live on one page so there is one of each to trust.

Open the builders →

The rest of the card our read on every race: analysis, not a bet

R2Chalk5Lady Ruth25%3/12/1

How it sets up

dirtContested3 of 10 want the lead

Go forward9

Pace helps135

Three of the 10 are entitled to the early lead, so the early fractions over a mile on dirt in a $12,500 maiden claimer should be contested rather than soft.

The board and our number agree in a $12,500 maiden claimer. Three of them want the lead. The barn's angle in this exact spot is among the best in the field.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
5	LADY RUTH	25%	3/1	2/1
2	DANCING WITH SHARI	16%	5/1	4/1
3	DAME IT DANI	13%	13/2	5/1
8	SPUN SWEET	11%	8/1	6/1
4	BIG WHOOSH	11%	8/1	6/1
1	SMOKEM HOT GIRL	7%	12/1	12/1
6	HOWMANYMORETIMES	5%	20/1	15/1
9	PRINCESS BREANNA	5%	20/1	15/1
7	SKY AT SUNRISE	3%	30/1	20/1
10	STRONG PROOF	3%	30/1	30/1

R4Scramble2Tapalo17%5/13/1

How it sets up

dirtContested4 of 12 want the lead

Go forward21012

Pace helps3

Four of the 12 are entitled to the early lead, so the opening quarter over five and a half furlongs on dirt in a $8,000 claimer should be contested rather than soft.

A full field of twelve. Nothing separates the top two by more than 1.1 points. Four horses want the front, so the early fractions should be honest.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
2	TAPALO	17%	5/1	3/1
7	DES DOIGTS	15%	11/2	7/2
1	KING APOLLO	14%	13/2	4/1
3	COME OUT FIGHTING	12%	15/2	5/1
11	NEXT TRICK	9%	10/1	8/1
4	WINDRIBBON	7%	15/1	12/1
5	MAGIC CONNECTION	6%	15/1	15/1
12	SUNSET STORM	5%	20/1	20/1
10	DEVIL MOON	5%	20/1	20/1
9	MANDELA EFFECT	4%	20/1	30/1
8	MORELLO	4%	25/1	20/1
6	SPIRITIST	3%	30/1	30/1

R5Scramble1Duke Of Orleans17%5/13/1

How it sets up

dirtContested3 of 12 want the lead

Go forward2356

Pace helps1711

Three of the 12 are entitled to the early lead, so the opening quarter over six furlongs on dirt in a $12,500 maiden claimer should be contested rather than soft.

A full field of twelve. Nothing separates the top two by more than 2.1 points. Three of them want the lead. The barn's angle in this exact spot is among the best in the field.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
1	DUKE OF ORLEANS	17%	5/1	3/1
5	HE'S GOT FIRE	15%	11/2	7/2
9	VICTORIA'S ROCKET	12%	15/2	5/1
6	HUNGOVER	10%	9/1	6/1
8	CARDBOARD TOMMY	9%	10/1	8/1
2	PROOF HE'S FAST	9%	10/1	8/1
7	SMOKEM AND LOVE	8%	11/1	15/1
3	READYTOBOARD	6%	15/1	20/1
11	WICKED SPUD	4%	25/1	20/1
12	FOREGONECONCLUSION	4%	25/1	20/1
10	NAUDESNOODLE	4%	30/1	20/1
4	RAND GOOD	2%	30/1	30/1

R6Lean2Vegas Del Oro20%4/17/2

How it sets up

dirtEven pace2 of 10 show early speed, short of contested

No runner here is entitled to the lead on the early figures. A field this size means traffic is the risk in here, not the pace. Two have shown early speed, under the count that would rate the race contested.

Our top-rated horse in a $50,000 maiden claimer. We make the top one 20% against the board's 18%. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 2 points.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
2	VEGAS DEL ORO	20%	4/1	7/2
8	THIRSTY ETERNA	17%	5/1	4/1
10	PALO ALTO BABY	12%	15/2	6/1
7	SHEMAKESMEMAD	11%	8/1	5/1
4	DONT SHORT UR SELF	9%	10/1	6/1
1	EAST WITTON	9%	10/1	8/1
3	ZAYDA AT THE SPA	7%	12/1	12/1
6	TAM'S SWISS MISS	6%	15/1	12/1
5	RABBIT TAIL	5%	20/1	15/1
9	SMOKEM JEANNINE	5%	20/1	15/1

R7Lean7Prince Dolce18%9/25/1

How it sets up

dirtContested4 of 9 want the lead

Go forward4

Pace helps138

Four of the 9 are entitled to the early lead, so the early fractions over a mile on dirt in a $20,000 allowance optional claimer should be contested rather than soft.

Our top-rated horse in a $20,000 allowance optional claimer. Four horses want the front, so the early fractions should be honest. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 4 points.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
7	PRINCE DOLCE	18%	9/2	5/1
2	WINNING PATRIOT	16%	11/2	3/1
5	MAJESTIC PALISADES	14%	6/1	6/1
1	FIGHT BACK	14%	6/1	4/1
9	FUMANO'S MAGIC	11%	15/2	6/1
3	RODRIGOKNOWS	9%	11/1	8/1
6	SILVER I AM	7%	15/1	8/1
8	PRACTICAL BLAME	6%	15/1	12/1
4	CAGEY BURGLAR	6%	15/1	20/1

Model v0-heuristic-1.4 · cfg aab788cb · code d22ad90a · takeout (DMR) win 15.43% / exacta 22.68% · card SHA-256 a6bf8f5f14aa… · Scratch status checked at 11:02 AM ET. Late scratches void at scoring; the card is never edited.

Edge Card runs a proprietary pre-race probability process: market expectations combined with licensed past-performance, pace, field-composition and connections information, evaluated within each race. Exact implementation details are not published. Structured analysis, not a proven edge; tracked publicly either way. How to read this card · the method in full · every call graded

Verifying this card

Downloadable artifact hash	`a6bf8f5f14aad30343aca7204d60e57232cbce225b8c2459a541e8a4227568af`
OpenTimestamps status	OpenTimestamps calendar commitment; Bitcoin confirmation pending