Saratoga — Fri Jul 24, 2026
We lose most single flags — that’s expected. The edge is price: when we’re right, the board paid more than fair. Our 30% picks win about 30% (see the calibration curve), and every call is graded against the closing odds — wins and losses.
No set price. On the tote you’re paid the closing odds, so the edge isn’t a line you beat early — it’s the gap between our fair number and where the crowd lands. We grade each flag against the actual close.
Our last miss: DMR R8 Suntory Time, flagged at 6/1, didn’t win — on the record like every call.
How this card is made & how to verify it
Edge Card v0 is a transparent heuristic, not a trained model: Prime-Power softmax blended 65/35 with the de-vigged morning line, plus published rules-based pace and trainer-form adjustments (the trainer angle is used as a model input; the raw figure is never published). Constants on the methodology page. Structured analysis, not proven edge; tracked publicly either way.
It reads Brisnet figures, pace, and trainer form — not jockey, trip, or track bias yet; those arrive with the trained v1 model. The trainer angle is used as a model input only; we never publish the raw figure. Fair odds are 1 ÷ our win probability.
The hold/shorten read on each flag is an early signal from its committed board price — long-priced flags the crowd leaves alone tend to hold, short ones get bet down. It’s a heuristic on a small sample; every call is graded on the record.
New here? How to read a flag
- Model
- Our estimated win chance for the horse.
- Fair
- The odds that chance implies — the price where a bet breaks even.
- Board
- The morning line, the track's early guess at the odds.
- Win bet
- Bet the horse to win. Pari-mutuel pays the closing price no matter when you bet, so you're backing the horse, not a fixed price.
- Hold / bet down
- Whether the price should stay long or get bet down by post — how much of the edge is likely to survive.
- The rest of the card
- Most races. We still show our top pick and a read on it, but there's no overlay worth a bet.
The model’s read ▾
A price play. We give KRISSYS STAR about a 13% chance in the 1 mile dirt — not likely on its own, but the board has it even longer, and a 7-point gap on a horse this price is where a payout actually lives.
On the figures it’s the one we rate highest in here, so a longer price reads as the market underrating it.
The race sets up with contested early pace (3 speed types), a shape that tends to favor closers.
To play it: a straight win bet on #5. Our fair is 13/2. On the tote you’re paid the closing price no matter when you bet, so you’re backing the horse, not a fixed price — the hold/shorten read above says how much of the edge is likely to survive to post.
Fair-value exotics ▾
| Ticket | Cost | Hit | Fair return | After ~20% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key exacta #5 / #6, #3 longshot | $2.00 | 5.2% | $38.21 | $30.57 |
| Keyed trifecta #5 / #6, #3 / #6, #3, #8, #1 longshot | $3.00 | 2.8% | $107.50 | $86.00 |
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | MY GUN'S LOADED | 23% | 7/2 | 4/5 |
| 5 | KRISSYS STAR ◀ | 13% | 13/2 | 12/1 |
| 3 | NYCON | 12% | 7/1 | 5/1 |
| 8 | BOW DRAW | 10% | 9/1 | 8/1 |
| 1 | BRUNCH WITH AMY | 10% | 9/1 | 8/1 |
| 2 | BERNIEANDTHEROSE | 10% | 9/1 | 12/1 |
| 7 | LIKA ROLLING STONE | 8% | 11/1 | 15/1 |
| 9 | SOUNDBITE | 7% | 12/1 | 10/1 |
| 4 | FAST AND FRISKY | 6% | 15/1 | 30/1 |
The model’s read ▾
MOMMY'S TURN is one of the more likely winners we flag today — a 28% chance in the 1 1/16 miles turf the board still prices like a longer shot (about 20% once you strip the take). The gap is smaller in points (8) but it’s on a horse we genuinely rate to win.
Our power-rating blend makes it the best of this field — which is why the board’s price looks a step generous.
It profiles as lone speed, likely alone on the lead.
To play it: a straight win bet on #8. Our fair is 5/2. On the tote you’re paid the closing price no matter when you bet, so you’re backing the horse, not a fixed price — the hold/shorten read above says how much of the edge is likely to survive to post.
Fair-value exotics ▾
| Ticket | Cost | Hit | Fair return | After ~20% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key exacta #8 / #4, #5 value | $2.00 | 14.9% | $13.43 | $10.74 |
| Keyed trifecta #8 / #4, #5 / #4, #5, #1, #2 value | $3.00 | 10.6% | $28.33 | $22.66 |
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | MOMMY'S TURN ◀ | 28% | 5/2 | 3/1 |
| 4 | NONNA LYNNE | 20% | 4/1 | 4/1 |
| 5 | STARSHIP PEGASUS | 18% | 9/2 | 7/2 |
| 1 | SARATOGA SNOW | 10% | 9/1 | 6/1 |
| 2 | CAN'T FOOL ME | 8% | 11/1 | 8/1 |
| 7 | GOLDEN ROCKET | 7% | 12/1 | 6/1 |
| 3 | SWEET ANNIVERSARY | 5% | 20/1 | 6/1 |
| 6 | HELLO BEAUTY | 3% | 30/1 | 15/1 |
The model’s read ▾
This is the widest gap on today’s card. We make SPIRIT OF NEW YORK a 26% shot in the 1 1/16 miles turf, where the morning line — take stripped out — sits near 11%. When our number is 15 points clear of the board, that disagreement is the whole reason to be here.
On the figures it’s the one we rate highest in here, so a longer price reads as the market underrating it.
The race sets up with contested early pace (3 speed types), a shape that tends to favor closers.
To play it: a straight win bet on #1. Our fair is 3/1. On the tote you’re paid the closing price no matter when you bet, so you’re backing the horse, not a fixed price — the hold/shorten read above says how much of the edge is likely to survive to post.
Fair-value exotics ▾
| Ticket | Cost | Hit | Fair return | After ~20% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key exacta #1 / #6, #2 value | $2.00 | 13.4% | $14.89 | $11.91 |
| Keyed trifecta #1 / #6, #2 / #6, #2, #7, #3 value | $3.00 | 10% | $30.03 | $24.02 |
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SPIRIT OF NEW YORK ◀ | 26% | 3/1 | 6/1 |
| 6 | A LITTLE AT FIRST | 22% | 7/2 | 2/1 |
| 2 | VOODOO DOLL | 16% | 11/2 | 7/2 |
| 7 | CAROLINE ST. BEAT | 13% | 7/1 | 3/1 |
| 3 | NEWLYN | 9% | 10/1 | 10/1 |
| 5 | CHUMMERS | 8% | 11/1 | 6/1 |
| 4 | MANOR PARK | 5% | 15/1 | 10/1 |
The model’s read ▾
We make WAR AND MAJESTY a 22% chance in the 1 1/2 miles turf; the line implies about 11%, and that 10-point gap over the board is the flag.
Our power-rating blend makes it the best of this field — which is why the board’s price looks a step generous.
It profiles as lone speed — likely uncontested on the front end, a real edge we bumped it for (×1.15).
To play it: a straight win bet on #9. Our fair is 7/2. On the tote you’re paid the closing price no matter when you bet, so you’re backing the horse, not a fixed price — the hold/shorten read above says how much of the edge is likely to survive to post.
Fair-value exotics ▾
| Ticket | Cost | Hit | Fair return | After ~20% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key exacta #9 / #4, #1 longshot | $2.00 | 8% | $25.02 | $20.02 |
| Keyed trifecta #9 / #4, #1 / #4, #1, #5, #2 longshot | $3.00 | 4.8% | $62.79 | $50.23 |
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | WAR AND MAJESTY ◀ | 22% | 7/2 | 6/1 |
| 4 | GOLD SOVEREIGN | 16% | 5/1 | 4/1 |
| 1 | LAHAINALUNA | 13% | 13/2 | 8/1 |
| 5 | INSTANTLY | 12% | 7/1 | 7/2 |
| 2 | LIMITED EDITION | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 |
| 7 | ORGONITE | 9% | 10/1 | 9/2 |
| 8 | DAUNTING | 7% | 15/1 | 8/1 |
| 3 | MORTAL LOCK | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 |
| 6 | DONNADOYAWANNA | 4% | 25/1 | 12/1 |
| Build | Cost | Hit | Fair return | After ~20% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conviction | $0.50 | 0.45% | $112.19 | $89.75 |
| R7 #8 · R8 #4 · R9 #1 · R10 #9 | ||||
| Coverage | $1.00 | 0.84% | $119.37 | $95.50 |
| R7 #8 · R8 #4, #3 · R9 #1 · R10 #9 | ||||
| Build | Cost | Hit | Fair return | After ~20% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conviction | $0.50 | 0.08% | $621.55 | $497.24 |
| R6 #4 · R7 #8 · R8 #4 · R9 #1 · R10 #9 | ||||
| Coverage | $2.00 | 0.26% | $762.53 | $610.02 |
| R6 #4, #8 · R7 #8 · R8 #4, #3 · R9 #1 · R10 #9 | ||||
| Build | Cost | Hit | Fair return | After ~20% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conviction | $1.00 | 0.07% | $1444.94 | $1155.95 |
| R1 #7 · R2 #7 · R3 #5 · R4 #1 · R5 #10, #11 | ||||
| Coverage | $16.00 | 0.58% | $2739.35 | $2191.48 |
| R1 #7, #8 · R2 #7, #5 · R3 #5 · R4 #1, #7 · R5 #10, #11, #1, #5 | ||||
| Build | Cost | Hit | Fair return | After ~20% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conviction | $0.40 | 0.03% | $1546.63 | $1237.30 |
| R5 #10, #11 · R6 #4 · R7 #8 · R8 #4 · R9 #1 · R10 #9 | ||||
| Coverage | $3.20 | 0.15% | $2203.83 | $1763.06 |
| R5 #10, #11, #1, #5 · R6 #4, #8 · R7 #8 · R8 #4, #3 · R9 #1 · R10 #9 | ||||
| Build | Cost | Hit | Fair return | After ~20% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conviction | $0.50 | 0.87% | $57.49 | $45.99 |
| R1 #7 · R2 #7 · R3 #5 | ||||
| Coverage | $2.00 | 2.53% | $79.09 | $63.27 |
| R1 #7, #8 · R2 #7, #5 · R3 #5 | ||||
| Build | Cost | Hit | Fair return | After ~20% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conviction | $0.50 | 2.07% | $24.12 | $19.30 |
| R7 #8 · R8 #4 · R9 #1 | ||||
| Coverage | $1.00 | 3.9% | $25.67 | $20.54 |
| R7 #8 · R8 #4, #3 · R9 #1 | ||||
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | TWO BY TWO BY TWO | 32% | 2/1 | 9/5 |
| 8 | OATH | 16% | 11/2 | 3/1 |
| 2 | BABCIE | 14% | 6/1 | 7/2 |
| 5 | CAMILLE'S LEGACY | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 |
| 3 | HANNA'S HIDEAWAY | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 |
| 6 | BIG JACKIE | 7% | 12/1 | 12/1 |
| 1 | ALL FUN N GAMES | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 |
| 4 | MS NIKKI D | 5% | 20/1 | 20/1 |
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | JUST PEACHY | 21% | 7/2 | 5/2 |
| 5 | MARGIE'S GIRL | 20% | 4/1 | 7/2 |
| 3 | CONFLICT | 16% | 11/2 | 4/1 |
| 2 | MANDY STEPH | 15% | 6/1 | 9/2 |
| 8 | CELEBRATE | 9% | 11/1 | 8/1 |
| 4 | HARMONY MILL | 8% | 11/1 | 8/1 |
| 6 | LOOP D LOOP | 7% | 12/1 | 10/1 |
| 1 | MISS MA'AM | 5% | 20/1 | 12/1 |
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GLEN AIRY | 25% | 3/1 | 2/1 |
| 7 | RUNGIUS | 17% | 5/1 | 7/2 |
| 6 | HOURS IN A DAY | 15% | 11/2 | 6/1 |
| 8 | NEON BORDEAUX | 13% | 7/1 | 9/2 |
| 4 | AWESOME EMPIRE | 12% | 7/1 | 5/1 |
| 2 | AUTHENTIC GALLOP | 8% | 12/1 | 12/1 |
| 3 | GET A JOB | 6% | 15/1 | 8/1 |
| 5 | ROCK THE WEEKEND | 4% | 25/1 | 20/1 |
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | SWAGING | 17% | 9/2 | 7/2 |
| 11 | TEDDER | 15% | 6/1 | 9/2 |
| 1 | SALMING | 13% | 7/1 | 5/1 |
| 5 | SHELLAC | 10% | 9/1 | 8/1 |
| 7 | SPORTS HERO | 10% | 9/1 | 6/1 |
| 4 | DIAMOND CHILD | 8% | 12/1 | 6/1 |
| 3 | MAJESTIC ARC | 6% | 15/1 | 15/1 |
| 8 | RUMBLYOUNGMANRUMBL | 6% | 15/1 | 8/1 |
| 6 | RESIDE | 5% | 20/1 | 20/1 |
| 9 | INTO INSPIRATION | 5% | 20/1 | 20/1 |
| 2 | DETAIL ORIENTED | 4% | 25/1 | 20/1 |
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | QUARTZ MOUNTAIN | 18% | 9/2 | 7/2 |
| 8 | SOUND OF MADNESS | 13% | 13/2 | 5/1 |
| 9 | GIRLS WEAR PEARLS | 12% | 7/1 | 9/2 |
| 6 | BREAKER | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 |
| 7 | RUNAWAY BRIDE | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 |
| 2 | DAZZLING | 10% | 9/1 | 6/1 |
| 5 | RED COATS COMING | 10% | 9/1 | 8/1 |
| 3 | HUNTER CREEK | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 |
| 1 | MITOLEON DYNAMITE | 5% | 20/1 | 20/1 |
| 10 | SPACE FOR GRACE | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 |
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | SCOTTISH LASSIE | 28% | 5/2 | 9/5 |
| 3 | FULLY SUBSCRIBED | 25% | 3/1 | 2/1 |
| 5 | BLESS THE BROKEN | 17% | 5/1 | 7/2 |
| 6 | EUNOMIA | 11% | 8/1 | 8/1 |
| 1 | SNOWYTE | 7% | 12/1 | 6/1 |
| 7 | VALTELLINA | 6% | 15/1 | 20/1 |
| 2 | AEOLIAN | 5% | 15/1 | 15/1 |