Del Mar, Fri Jul 24, 2026

8 races · published 2:25 AM ET · card locked

4 value plays today · 5 races we're passing

StatusCompleted · races run

First post5:00 PM ET

Scratch checkAs of 10:00 AM ET

Archived card · races already run

These plays were published and locked before first post on Fri Jul 24, 2026. They are kept exactly as published, wins and losses alike, and are no longer actionable. Prices shown were the qualifying prices at publication.

Every selection we have ever published is graded on the record. The methodology is on the methodology page.

Edge of the Day

5CITY EXILE

Race 4 · 1 1/8 miles turf

35%model9/5fair5/2boardWINpaid at the close

Our biggest edge on the card today (+12 pts over the board), the crowd will likely bet it down, so expect a shorter number, so size it smaller. Chosen by rule: the flag with the most value, graded like any other.

Today at Del MarPartly Cloudy then Patchy Fog, 70°F, wind 0 to 5 mph · rain 1%, no off-track flagNWS forecast

Flags 4 of 8 races

New here? How to read a flag · Model, Fair, Board and the pari-mutuel closing rule, explained once.

Today’s plays4 flags

RaceHorseModelBoardEdge

R45City Exile35%5/2+12 pts R46Lord Bullingdon26%3/1+6 pts R66Bad Uncle Barry21%5/1+7 pts R89Flash Of Lightning29%7/2+11 pts

Race 4 · 1 1/8 miles · turf · Claiming $40,000Flag

5CITY EXILE

Model

Fair

Board

35%

9/5

5/2

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down A short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post, pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Even pace1 of 8 shows early speed, short of contested

No one horse is entitled to the lead. Only one has shown genuine early speed, without enough company to rate the race contested.

The model’s read ▾

This is the widest gap on today’s card. When our number is that far clear of the board, the disagreement is the whole reason to be here.

It tops our own win number, 9.5 points clear of the next one.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
5	CITY EXILE ◀	35%	9/5	5/2
6	LORD BULLINGDON	26%	3/1	3/1
8	BARELY FUNTIONAL	12%	7/1	6/1
2	BALLADEER	7%	15/1	4/1
3	UNCLE HAPPY	6%	15/1	8/1
4	LAHAINA FLAVOR	6%	15/1	10/1
7	STAMP MY PASSPORT	5%	20/1	8/1
1	SMOOTH SALUTE	3%	30/1	20/1

Race 4 · 1 1/8 miles · turf · Claiming $40,000Flag

6LORD BULLINGDON

Model

Fair

Board

26%

3/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

The board and our fair price round to the same number (3/1), so the gap is finer than fractional odds show, it is +5.7 points of win probability, not a longer price.

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down A short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post, pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.

Ranks #2 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Even pace1 of 8 shows early speed, short of contested

Nothing in here has a clear claim on the lead. Only one has shown genuine early speed, without enough company to rate the race contested.

It rates second on our own win number, 9.5 points behind the top.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
5	CITY EXILE	35%	9/5	5/2
6	LORD BULLINGDON ◀	26%	3/1	3/1
8	BARELY FUNTIONAL	12%	7/1	6/1
2	BALLADEER	7%	15/1	4/1
3	UNCLE HAPPY	6%	15/1	8/1
4	LAHAINA FLAVOR	6%	15/1	10/1
7	STAMP MY PASSPORT	5%	20/1	8/1
1	SMOOTH SALUTE	3%	30/1	20/1

Race 6 · 5 furlongs · turf · Optional claiming $100,000, non-winners of two other than maiden, claiming or starterFlag

6BAD UNCLE BARRY

Model

Fair

Board

21%

4/1

5/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Price may move A mid board price, it can hold or shorten into post. You are paid the closing price either way, so bet the horse and take the number you get.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Contested6 of 8 want the lead

Go forward14

Pace helps368

Six of the 8 are entitled to the early lead, so the opening quarter over five furlongs on turf in a $100,000 allowance optional claimer should be contested rather than soft.

The model’s read ▾

It tops our own win number, 3.1 points clear of the next one, and with 6 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.

6 of the 8 want the front over five furlongs on turf, and this one profiles to come from off it, so we pushed its number up for that (×1.1).

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
6	BAD UNCLE BARRY ◀	21%	4/1	5/1
8	LONESOME STEW	18%	9/2	5/1
7	IRISH ROYALTY	15%	11/2	7/2
1	VIRAT	14%	6/1	4/1
3	INCANTO	11%	8/1	6/1
2	THE OLD NINE	10%	9/1	15/1
5	ARRAKIS	7%	15/1	6/1
4	GABALDON	5%	20/1	6/1

Race 8 · 1 mile · turf · Maiden special weightFlag

9FLASH OF LIGHTNING

Model

Fair

Board

29%

5/2

7/2

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down A short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post, pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Lone speedone gets loose on the lead, 10 going

Alone on the lead10

One of the 10 looks alone on the lead, clear of the field on the early figures over a mile on turf, with nothing else in here entitled to go with it.

The model’s read ▾

FLASH OF LIGHTNING is one of the more likely winners we flag today, and the board still prices it like a longer shot. The gap is smaller in points than some, but it is on a horse we genuinely rate to win.

It tops our own win number, 15.7 points clear of the next one, in a race where one of them looks like getting loose on the lead.

In a field of 10 it profiles as the lone speed over a mile on turf, likely alone on the lead.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
9	FLASH OF LIGHTNING ◀	29%	5/2	7/2
4	GOING NOWHERE	13%	7/1	8/1
6	FEELING LUCKY	10%	9/1	5/1
7	BENNY'S PUZZLE	9%	10/1	4/1
8	HIGH KING	9%	10/1	12/1
10	ROYAL RUMOR	9%	10/1	8/1
5	BIG VENGEANCE	9%	11/1	6/1
2	HE'S PROOF OF JOY	7%	15/1	8/1
3	DOING TIME	4%	25/1	15/1
1	BELLO ROSSO	3%	30/1	20/1

The whole card every runner, our number beside the board

Every runner on the card: our win probability and fair odds beside the morning line, with the edge between them. Sortable by any column.
R	#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board	Edge	Rank	Why
R15 furlongs dirtMaiden claiming $50,000Even pacepass
R1	6	WINSOR GEORGE	19%	9/2	7/2	+1	1
R1	4	BO DIDDLEY	14%	13/2	6/1	+2	2
R1	5	SMOKEM WICKED	14%	13/2	5/1	0	3
R1	9	THE MOE SHOW	13%	7/1	4/1	-3	4
R1	3	JOLT OF JOY	9%	10/1	8/1	0	5
R1	7	MO BAD	9%	11/1	8/1	0
R1	8	CLUB FIGHTER	8%	11/1	8/1	0
R1	10	HERE COMES TOO TOO	7%	12/1	10/1	0
R1	2	CITY OF FORZA	4%	25/1	20/1	0	6
R1	1	SIP SIP CHARLY	4%	25/1	20/1	0
R25 furlongs turfMaiden special weightContested pace likely (3 early-speed types)pass
R2	4	FIRST OR LAST	17%	9/2	7/2	-1	2	▲
R2	7	HIGH SOCIETY U	17%	5/1	3/1	-3	1	▼
R2	2	LITTLE OPAL	16%	5/1	4/1	0
R2	5	TIZ ALLURING	14%	13/2	4/1	-3	4	▲
R2	3	GREY MATTER	10%	9/1	12/1	+4	3	▼
R2	6	BRAZORIA	9%	10/1	8/1	0
R2	1	CHERRY CANDY	9%	11/1	8/1	0
R2	8	DECISIVE DECEPTION	8%	12/1	15/1	+3	5
R31 mile dirtOptional claiming $50,000Contested pace likely (3 early-speed types)pass
R3	4	CRAZY CAMI	21%	7/2	3/1	+1	2	▲
R3	9	FIRE BAN	17%	5/1	6/1	+5	1
R3	7	INTERPLAY	13%	7/1	8/1	+4	3
R3	1	CHANNEL PLACE	12%	15/2	6/1	0	4
R3	6	PHOTOGENIC	9%	10/1	7/2	-9	8	▼
R3	8	TULAVIA'S WORLD	9%	11/1	10/1	+1	6
R3	3	MUSICAL SONG	8%	12/1	10/1	0	5	▼
R3	5	ANGEL BABY	7%	12/1	12/1	+1	7
R3	2	ALLIHIES	6%	15/1	8/1	-3	9	▲
R41 1/8 miles turfClaiming $40,000Even pace2 flags
R4	5	CITY EXILE	35%	9/5	5/2	+12	1
R4	6	LORD BULLINGDON	26%	3/1	3/1	+6	2
R4	8	BARELY FUNTIONAL	12%	7/1	6/1	+1	3
R4	2	BALLADEER	7%	15/1	4/1	-9	8
R4	3	UNCLE HAPPY	6%	15/1	8/1	-3	5
R4	4	LAHAINA FLAVOR	6%	15/1	10/1	-1	4
R4	7	STAMP MY PASSPORT	5%	20/1	8/1	-4	6
R4	1	SMOOTH SALUTE	3%	30/1	20/1	-1	7
R56 furlongs dirtMaiden claiming $12,500Contested pace likely (3 early-speed types)pass
R5	7	TIGHT DALLY	16%	5/1	3/1	-3	2
R5	2	HUNGOVER	13%	7/1	8/1	+4	1	▼
R5	8	DUKE OF ORLEANS	12%	15/2	4/1	-4	8	▲
R5	9	SUNK COST FALLACY	11%	8/1	6/1	0	6	▲
R5	5	HE'S GOT FIRE	10%	9/1	10/1	+3	3	▼
R5	11	MY MAN JOE ROLDAN	10%	9/1	6/1	-2	7
R5	4	SMOKEM AND LOVE	9%	10/1	12/1	+3	4	▲
R5	3	FIGHTING THUNDER	8%	12/1	10/1	0	5	▼
R5	1	READYTOBOARD	6%	15/1	12/1	0	9	▼
R5	6	MR AKIN	4%	25/1	20/1	0	10
R5	10	WICKED SPUD	2%	50/1	30/1	-1	11
R65 furlongs turfOptional claiming $100,000, non-winners of two other than maiden, claiming or starterContested pace likely (6 early-speed types)1 flag
R6	6	BAD UNCLE BARRY	21%	4/1	5/1	+7	1	▲
R6	8	LONESOME STEW	18%	9/2	5/1	+4	2	▲
R6	7	IRISH ROYALTY	15%	11/2	7/2	-3	4
R6	1	VIRAT	14%	6/1	4/1	-2	3	▼
R6	3	INCANTO	11%	8/1	6/1	0	6	▲
R6	2	THE OLD NINE	10%	9/1	15/1	+5	5
R6	5	ARRAKIS	7%	15/1	6/1	-5	7
R6	4	GABALDON	5%	20/1	6/1	-7	8	▼
R77 furlongs dirtStakes, $150,000 purseContested pace likely (6 early-speed types)pass
R7	8	MOHAVEN	25%	3/1	8/5	-6	2	▲
R7	6	SHE'S NO QUANT	21%	7/2	3/1	+2	1	▲
R7	11	LIBERATION	9%	10/1	8/1	0	3
R7	5	TROISIEME ETOILE	8%	11/1	10/1	+1	4	▲
R7	10	CECILIA STREET	7%	15/1	12/1	+1	5
R7	9	CHRISTA MCAULIFFE	5%	15/1	20/1	+2	7
R7	2	THE LOAN EXCHANGE	5%	20/1	20/1	+1	6	▼
R7	3	LINO'S ANGEL	5%	20/1	15/1	0	8
R7	4	DONTTELLMEWHATTODO	4%	20/1	15/1	0	9	▼
R7	12	TAKING A JOY RIDE	4%	25/1	20/1	0	10
R7	1	TAPATIA MIA	4%	25/1	15/1	-1	12
R7	7	LYNDEE'S DREAM	3%	30/1	30/1	0	11	▼
R81 mile turfMaiden special weightLone speed1 flag
R8	9	FLASH OF LIGHTNING	29%	5/2	7/2	+11	1
R8	4	GOING NOWHERE	13%	7/1	8/1	+4	2
R8	6	FEELING LUCKY	10%	9/1	5/1	-4	5
R8	7	BENNY'S PUZZLE	9%	10/1	4/1	-7	7
R8	8	HIGH KING	9%	10/1	12/1	+3	3
R8	10	ROYAL RUMOR	9%	10/1	8/1	0	6	▲
R8	5	BIG VENGEANCE	9%	11/1	6/1	-3	4
R8	2	HE'S PROOF OF JOY	7%	15/1	8/1	-2	8
R8	3	DOING TIME	4%	25/1	15/1	-1	9
R8	1	BELLO ROSSO	3%	30/1	20/1	-1	10

Rank is our power-figure blend, 1 is best. Why reads left to right: whether the pace shape helps (▲) or hurts (▼), the barn (B) and the morning (W). Green is positive, red negative, and BLANK means we have nothing to say, so only rows with signal carry a mark. Model and Fair are ours; Board is the morning line.

Price your own ticket

The exotics builder, the sequence builder and the style ranker all run against this card, 8 races of it, at the real minimum and the real takeout. They live on one page so there is one of each to trust.

Open the builders →

The rest of the card our read on every race: analysis, not a bet

R1Chalk6Winsor George19%9/27/2

How it sets up

dirtEven pacenone of the 10 shows early speed

Nobody in here is clearly entitled to the lead. A field this size means traffic is the risk in here, not the pace. Nothing in here has shown real early speed on the figures the model reads.

The board and our number agree in a $50,000 maiden claimer. A full field of ten.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
6	WINSOR GEORGE	19%	9/2	7/2
4	BO DIDDLEY	14%	13/2	6/1
5	SMOKEM WICKED	14%	13/2	5/1
9	THE MOE SHOW	13%	7/1	4/1
3	JOLT OF JOY	9%	10/1	8/1
7	MO BAD	9%	11/1	8/1
8	CLUB FIGHTER	8%	11/1	8/1
10	HERE COMES TOO TOO	7%	12/1	10/1
2	CITY OF FORZA	4%	25/1	20/1
1	SIP SIP CHARLY	4%	25/1	20/1

R2Scramble4First Or Last17%9/27/2

How it sets up

turfContested3 of 8 want the lead

Go forward37

Pace helps45

Three of the 8 are entitled to the early lead, so the opening quarter over five furlongs on turf in a maiden special weight should be contested rather than soft.

An open heat. The top two are effectively level on our numbers. Three of them want the lead.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
4	FIRST OR LAST	17%	9/2	7/2
7	HIGH SOCIETY U	17%	5/1	3/1
2	LITTLE OPAL	16%	5/1	4/1
5	TIZ ALLURING	14%	13/2	4/1
3	GREY MATTER	10%	9/1	12/1
6	BRAZORIA	9%	10/1	8/1
1	CHERRY CANDY	9%	11/1	8/1
8	DECISIVE DECEPTION	8%	12/1	15/1

R3Chalk4Crazy Cami21%7/23/1

How it sets up

dirtContested3 of 9 want the lead

Go forward36

Pace helps24

Three of the 9 are entitled to the early lead, so the early fractions over a mile on dirt in a $50,000 optional claimer should be contested rather than soft.

The board and our number agree in a $50,000 optional claimer. Three of them want the lead.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
4	CRAZY CAMI	21%	7/2	3/1
9	FIRE BAN	17%	5/1	6/1
7	INTERPLAY	13%	7/1	8/1
1	CHANNEL PLACE	12%	15/2	6/1
6	PHOTOGENIC	9%	10/1	7/2
8	TULAVIA'S WORLD	9%	11/1	10/1
3	MUSICAL SONG	8%	12/1	10/1
5	ANGEL BABY	7%	12/1	12/1
2	ALLIHIES	6%	15/1	8/1

R5Scramble7Tight Dally16%5/13/1

How it sets up

dirtContested3 of 11 want the lead

Go forward1235

Pace helps489

Three of the 11 are entitled to the early lead, so the opening quarter over six furlongs on dirt in a $12,500 maiden claimer should be contested rather than soft.

A full field of eleven. Nothing separates the top two by more than 4.0 points. Three of them want the lead.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
7	TIGHT DALLY	16%	5/1	3/1
2	HUNGOVER	13%	7/1	8/1
8	DUKE OF ORLEANS	12%	15/2	4/1
9	SUNK COST FALLACY	11%	8/1	6/1
5	HE'S GOT FIRE	10%	9/1	10/1
11	MY MAN JOE ROLDAN	10%	9/1	6/1
4	SMOKEM AND LOVE	9%	10/1	12/1
3	FIGHTING THUNDER	8%	12/1	10/1
1	READYTOBOARD	6%	15/1	12/1
6	MR AKIN	4%	25/1	20/1
10	WICKED SPUD	2%	50/1	30/1

R7Chalk8Mohaven25%3/18/5

How it sets up

dirtContested6 of 12 want the lead

Go forward247

Pace helps568

Six of the 12 are entitled to the early lead, so the early fractions over seven furlongs on dirt in a starter allowance should be contested rather than soft.

The board and our number agree in a starter allowance. Six horses want the front, so the early fractions should be honest. We make the favourite, #8 MOHAVEN, 25% against the board's 30%, shorter than we think it should be. We are not betting the race; take it as an opinion, not a play.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
8	MOHAVEN	25%	3/1	8/5
6	SHE'S NO QUANT	21%	7/2	3/1
11	LIBERATION	9%	10/1	8/1
5	TROISIEME ETOILE	8%	11/1	10/1
10	CECILIA STREET	7%	15/1	12/1
9	CHRISTA MCAULIFFE	5%	15/1	20/1
2	THE LOAN EXCHANGE	5%	20/1	20/1
3	LINO'S ANGEL	5%	20/1	15/1
4	DONTTELLMEWHATTODO	4%	20/1	15/1
12	TAKING A JOY RIDE	4%	25/1	20/1
1	TAPATIA MIA	4%	25/1	15/1
7	LYNDEE'S DREAM	3%	30/1	30/1

Model v0-heuristic-1.4 · cfg aab788cb · code f93be1a6 · takeout (DMR) win 15.43% / exacta 22.68% · card SHA-256 7a988efd1ee5… · Scratches as of 10:00 AM ET. Late scratches void at scoring; the card is never edited.

This card was produced under the methodology version identified at publication. Detailed implementation parameters are proprietary and are no longer displayed. The original selections, probabilities, prices, timestamps, grading and integrity evidence are unchanged, and the locked card file below is the original. How to read this card · the method in full · every call graded

Verifying this card

Downloadable artifact hash	`4e9088b356aa5dd41d3a3a92077401248cf74cbac8d5ac8fa90394952d3b36b1`
Original recorded lock hash	`7a988efd1ee58c4dcf8e62d143b56b51fde5dcc87320c33667410d4e6887ca0e`
OpenTimestamps status	Bitcoin confirmed · block 959385

This card was generated on Windows. Its original lock hash was calculated from CRLF-formatted bytes before Git stored the same JSON with LF line endings. The selections and JSON values are unchanged. Use the downloadable artifact hash above to verify the public file. Full correction record · chc-2026-07-24-dmr-card-01.