Saratoga & Del Mar · 2026 · Model v0-heuristic-1.4 the anti-tout · locked before post, every pick graded
EdgeCardHQ

Saratoga, Sun Aug 30, 2026

4 value plays today · 6 races we're passing
StatusCompleted · races run
First post1:10 PM ET
Scratch checkChecked · 11:20 AM ET
Archived card · races already run

These plays were published and locked before first post on Sun Aug 30, 2026. They are kept exactly as published, wins and losses alike, and are no longer actionable. Prices shown were the qualifying prices at publication.

Every selection we have ever published is graded on the record. The methodology is on the methodology page.

Edge of the Day
3FOOLIN
Race 1 · 5 1/2 furlongs turf
35%model9/5fair2/1boardWINpaid at the close
Our biggest edge on the card today (+9 pts over the board), the crowd will likely bet it down, so expect a shorter number, so size it smaller. Chosen by rule: the flag with the most value, graded like any other.
Today at SaratogaMostly Cloudy then Slight Chance Rain Showers, 77°F, wind 6 mph · rain 20%, no off-track flagNWS forecast
Flags 4 of 10 races
Race 1 · 5 1/2 furlongs · turf · Maiden special weightFlagShare
3FOOLIN
Model
Fair
Board
35%
9/5
2/1
our win %
break-even
the morning line
▸ WIN BET · paid at the close
shorterlonger, pays more9/5 break-even2/1 board
Likely bet down A short board price for this track, and prices this short more often shorten by post than not. Still a win play, but expect a smaller number than the board shows, because pari-mutuel pays the close. Size it smaller.
Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.
Data · Brisnet
How it sets up
Even pace1 of 7 shows early speed, short of contested

Nobody in here is clearly entitled to the lead. Only one has shown genuine early speed, without enough company to rate the race contested.

The model’s read ▾

This is the widest gap on today’s card. When our number is that far clear of the board, the disagreement is the whole reason to be here.

It tops our own win number, 11.3 points clear of the next one.

Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoardWorks
3FOOLIN 35%9/52/13/74·8d
7LOU'S ROOM23%7/29/54/17·21d
4FLOWLINE20%4/13/11/29·3d
1SONGBIRD PRINCE11%8/16/11/23·9d
6CACTUS CLOSER5%20/18/16/65·9d
5FEAR NO ONE5%20/115/12/37·7d
2MAMBO JAZZ2%50/130/12/6·12d
Race 4 · 1 mile · dirt · Optional claiming $55,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterFlagShare
4BOW DRAW
Model
Fair
Board
21%
4/1
4/1
our win %
break-even
the morning line
The board and our fair price round to the same number (4/1), so the gap is finer than fractional odds show, it is +5.1 points of win probability, not a longer price.
▸ WIN BET · paid at the close
shorterlonger, pays more4/1 break-even4/1 board
Price may move A mid board price, it can hold or shorten into post. You are paid the closing price either way, so bet the horse and take the number you get.
Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.
Data · Brisnet
How it sets up
Even pace1 of 7 shows early speed, short of contested

No one horse is entitled to the lead. Only one has shown genuine early speed, without enough company to rate the race contested.

It rates second on our own win number, 5.8 points behind the top.

Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoardWorks
5MARIA LOUISE27%3/17/55/29·7d
4BOW DRAW 21%4/14/15/28·11d
2GOLDEN IRISH13%7/112/14/12·8d
7DONOR ADVISED13%7/13/112/66·8d
6TRUSTY TROUTMAN10%9/18/13/8·8d
3FIRE MOON9%11/16/11/33·9d
1RAGHBA8%11/112/114/38·7d
Race 8 · 6 furlongs · dirt · Maiden special weightFlagShare
10MODEST MACLEAN
Model
Fair
Board
28%
5/2
5/2
our win %
break-even
the morning line
The board and our fair price round to the same number (5/2), so the gap is finer than fractional odds show, it is +5.6 points of win probability, not a longer price.
▸ WIN BET · paid at the close
shorterlonger, pays more5/2 break-even5/2 board
Likely bet down A short board price for this track, and prices this short more often shorten by post than not. Still a win play, but expect a smaller number than the board shows, because pari-mutuel pays the close. Size it smaller.
Ranks #1 in our power figure blend. Barn angle strong here
Data · Brisnet
How it sets up
Contested4 of 10 want the lead
Go forward1289
Pace helps610

Four of the 10 are entitled to the early lead, so the opening quarter over six furlongs on dirt in a maiden special weight should be contested rather than soft.

The model’s read ▾

It tops our own win number, 15.6 points clear of the next one, and with 4 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.

4 of the 10 want the front over six furlongs on dirt, and this one profiles to come from off it, so we pushed its number up for that (×1.1).

Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoardWorks
10MODEST MACLEAN 28%5/25/25/138·35d
1KARSTEN12%7/16/13/63·7d
2ISTHEREANORMALWIFE12%15/27/24/18·8d
8BOSSOFEVERYTHING12%15/25/116/34·9d
3TAP RULES12%15/26/11/11·8d
6HIGH LEVERAGE8%11/110/11/11·7d
5GALICAT7%12/110/16/9·7d
4HAPPY GO MORE4%25/115/11/102·10d
9MY MUNNY TALKS3%30/120/13/19·8d
7THESPIAN2%50/130/13/4·4d
Race 9 · 1 1/16 miles · turf · Stakes, $200,000 purseFlagShare
1MIDNIGHT CONCERTO
Model
Fair
Board
22%
7/2
4/1
our win %
break-even
the morning line
▸ WIN BET · paid at the close
shorterlonger, pays more7/2 break-even4/1 board
Price may move A mid board price, it can hold or shorten into post. You are paid the closing price either way, so bet the horse and take the number you get.
Ranks #1 in our power figure blend; closer in a contested-pace setup.
Data · Brisnet
How it sets up
Contested3 of 9 want the lead
Go forward35
Pace helps14

Three of the 9 are entitled to the early lead, so the early fractions over a mile and a sixteenth on turf in a starter allowance should be contested rather than soft.

The model’s read ▾

It rates second on our own win number, 0.1 points behind the top, and with 3 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.

3 of the 9 want the front over a mile and a sixteenth on turf, and this one profiles to come from off it, so we pushed its number up for that (×1.1).

Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoardWorks
9AWESOME CZECH22%7/22/17/151·7d
1MIDNIGHT CONCERTO 22%7/24/11/6·5d
3BERNIETAKESCHARGE11%8/18/14/37·6d
8SAIL WITH THE WIND10%9/16/17/61·7d
4BEING BETTY9%10/16/18/9·9d
7BROKEALLTHERULES9%10/110/120/28·12d
5SPINNING COLORS8%12/18/112/23·38d
6COSMIC CANDY GIRL5%20/112/151/55·15d
2MARVELOUS MADISON4%25/115/18/12·7d
What to know about each race today
R15 1/2 furlongs turfMaiden special weight

3 of the 7 have never raced on turf

  • 2Mambo Jazzbottom third of this field on turf breeding · blinkers on
  • 3Foolintop third of this field on turf breeding · blinkers on
  • 6Cactus Closertop third of this field on turf breeding
R26 furlongs dirtClaiming $55,000
  • 6Perfect Forceclaimed last time out
R31 1/16 miles turfMaiden special weight
  • 1Warrior At Heartfirst start on turf · first start at a mile or longer · blinkers on
  • 6Jackpot Jackiefirst start on turf · first start at a mile or longer · top third of this field on turf breeding
R41 mile dirtOptional claiming $55,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starter
  • 2Golden Irishfirst start at a mile or longer · bottom third of this field on breeding for the trip
  • 4Bow Drawclaimed last time out
  • 7Donor Advisedfirst start in over a year
R55 1/2 furlongs dirtMaiden special weight

3 of the 10 have never raced on dirt

  • 8Bankthemoneyhoneyblinkers on
R61 1/16 miles turfMaiden special weight

5 of the 12 have never gone a mile or longer

3 of the 12 have never raced on turf

  • 6Seismic Activitytop third of this field on breeding for the trip
  • 8Mc Cruisertop third of this field on breeding for the trip
R77 furlongs dirtClaiming $20,000, non-winners of three lifetime
  • 4Bobby Jeanfirst start under a mile · bottom third of this field on breeding for the trip · claimed last time out
  • 2Cararranew barn since the last start, now with Lolita Shivmangal
  • 7Belle CherieRicardo Santana Jr back aboard, a winner on this horse four starts back
  • 9Pocket Queensclaimed last time out
R86 furlongs dirtMaiden special weight
  • 1Karstenfirst start on dirt · first start under a mile · top third of this field on dirt breeding
  • 6High Leveragefirst start on dirt · new barn since the last start, now with Michael J Maker
  • 4Happy Go Moreblinkers on
  • 7Thespiannew barn since the last start, now with Bob G Dunham
  • 9My Munny Talksnew barn since the last start, now with Lolita Shivmangal
  • and 1 more with something to note
R91 1/16 miles turfStakes, $200,000 purse
  • 3Bernietakeschargefirst start on turf · bottom third of this field on turf breeding
R101 mile turfMaiden special weight
  • 6No Differencenew barn since the last start, now with Antonio Arriaga · blinkers on
  • 7Indomiknownew barn since the last start, now with Lauren Robson · first-time Lasix
  • 8Miss Twitterfirst start on turf · top third of this field on turf breeding
  • 9One Bad Habitfirst-time Lasix
  • 10Legal Squeezefirst start in 7 months

Facts about the race, not predictions. A class move is shown with the finish it came off so you can judge it; we do not claim any of these wins, and only the flagged win bets above are graded on the record.

The whole card every runner, our number beside the board
Every runner on the card: our win probability and fair odds beside the morning line, with the edge between them. Sortable by any column.
R#HorseModelFairBoardEdgeRankWhyWorks
R15 1/2 furlongs turfMaiden special weightEven pace1 flag
R13FOOLIN35%9/52/1+91W3/74·8d
R17LOU'S ROOM23%7/29/5-424/17·21d
R14FLOWLINE20%4/13/10BW1/29·3d
R11SONGBIRD PRINCE11%8/16/10W1/23·9d
R16CACTUS CLOSER5%20/18/1-33W6/65·9d
R15FEAR NO ONE5%20/115/10BW2/37·7d
R12MAMBO JAZZ2%50/130/1-14B2/6·12d
R26 furlongs dirtClaiming $55,000Contested pace likely (3 early-speed types)pass
R25TIGER TWENTY FOUR35%9/54/5-911/2·10d
R26PERFECT FORCE17%9/23/1-237/11·13d
R23MOMENTUM FILES13%7/16/1+22W5/151·8d
R27CELESTIAL GLAZE11%8/18/1+24W1/26·3d
R21TRIPP'S PROMISE11%8/110/1+4514/58·49d
R22SHARE THE LUDT7%15/115/1+261/14·24d
R24GYPSY DREAMING6%15/115/1+27W1/111·10d
R31 1/16 miles turfMaiden special weightEven pacepass
R32KIPROS20%4/15/2-21W2/49·6d
R37TICKET TO FAME15%11/24/10W1/23·6d
R33HETCH HETCHY15%6/19/2+1B1/4·9d
R35GENEVA LAKE14%6/16/1+321/8·8d
R38MAPPED13%13/25/107/17·8d
R36JACKPOT JACKIE12%15/26/1+1317/18·8d
R34AREQUIPE7%15/112/1+148/18·8d
R31WARRIOR AT HEART4%25/110/1-3514/45·6d
R41 mile dirtOptional claiming $55,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterEven pace1 flag
R45MARIA LOUISE27%3/17/5-625/29·7d
R44BOW DRAW21%4/14/1+515/28·11d
R42GOLDEN IRISH13%7/112/1+734/12·8d
R47DONOR ADVISED13%7/13/1-7612/66·8d
R46TRUSTY TROUTMAN10%9/18/1+243/8·8d
R43FIRE MOON9%11/16/1-37W1/33·9d
R41RAGHBA8%11/112/1+2514/38·7d
R55 1/2 furlongs dirtMaiden special weightLone speedpass
R56D'MUEHL21%7/22/1-51B6/14·9d
R57ANNOTATE17%5/15/1+421/1·6d
R510STELLABRATION14%13/29/2-1W1/21·7d
R53SUN KISSED BLISS11%8/16/103/12·7d
R59MCLIGHT11%8/16/1014/53·7d
R58BANKTHEMONEYHONEY7%12/110/1036/7·25d
R51FANTASY FORTUNE6%15/112/102/5·7d
R55WHITE STAR6%15/120/1+241/1·6d
R54BUCCHERITA5%20/120/1+153/6·8d
R52CARA'S CHROME4%25/120/102/7·6d
R61 1/16 miles turfMaiden special weightEven pacepass
R65FAVE17%9/27/2012/115·7d
R62WELCOME ROAD16%5/14/1+1BW3/32·8d
R611GOLDEN MAIDEN13%7/15/10W2/22·8d
R69MIOS11%8/16/106/32·5d
R66SEISMIC ACTIVITY8%11/112/1+219/45·7d
R63HIGH TIDE HONEY8%11/18/10B10/13·7d
R610CREAM OF THE CROP7%12/112/1+129/16·35d
R61SARATOGA LAKE4%20/112/1-1420/151·28d
R64COURSIERE4%25/115/1-13B16/24·8d
R67MARGRETFRANCES4%25/120/1012/17·9d
R612CIAO BABY4%25/120/101/1·7d
R68MC CRUISER4%25/115/1-15B1/9·7d
R77 furlongs dirtClaiming $20,000, non-winners of three lifetimeContested pace likely (3 early-speed types)pass
R71BRUNCH WITH AMY26%3/17/5-61B5/7·25d
R73DONNA ROMANO15%6/16/1+42B4/14·9d
R77BELLE CHERIE14%6/15/1+13B44/115·7d
R79POCKET QUEENS9%10/112/1+3426/36·4d
R75SCARLET'S DREAM7%12/18/1-161/2·12d
R74BOBBY JEAN7%12/110/10521/32·4d
R76OSCAR BOUND6%15/18/1-274/48·28d
R72CARARRA6%15/115/1+18B7/11·4d
R710CARADISE3%30/130/1+110B4/14·29d
R711THAT'STHEFACTJACK3%30/120/10111/4·5d
R78MOONLIT WEEKEND3%30/130/1+19B47/126·8d
R86 furlongs dirtMaiden special weightContested pace likely (4 early-speed types)1 flag
R810MODEST MACLEAN28%5/25/2+61B5/138·35d
R81KARSTEN12%7/16/1+13W3/63·7d
R82ISTHEREANORMALWIFE12%15/27/2-544/18·8d
R88BOSSOFEVERYTHING12%15/25/1-12B16/34·9d
R83TAP RULES12%15/26/10BW1/11·8d
R86HIGH LEVERAGE8%11/110/1+15W1/11·7d
R85GALICAT7%12/110/106/9·7d
R84HAPPY GO MORE4%25/115/1-16W1/102·10d
R89MY MUNNY TALKS3%30/120/1-17B3/19·8d
R87THESPIAN2%50/130/108B3/4·4d
R91 1/16 miles turfStakes, $200,000 purseContested pace likely (3 early-speed types)1 flag
R99AWESOME CZECH22%7/22/1-42W7/151·7d
R91MIDNIGHT CONCERTO22%7/24/1+611/6·5d
R93BERNIETAKESCHARGE11%8/18/1+23B4/37·6d
R98SAIL WITH THE WIND10%9/16/1-157/61·7d
R94BEING BETTY9%10/16/1-278/9·9d
R97BROKEALLTHERULES9%10/110/1+2420/28·12d
R95SPINNING COLORS8%12/18/1-16B12/23·38d
R96COSMIC CANDY GIRL5%20/112/1-28BW51/55·15d
R92MARVELOUS MADISON4%25/115/1-198/12·7d
R101 mile turfMaiden special weightEven pacepass
R108MISS TWITTER25%3/15/2+31BW1/141·9d
R107INDOMIKNOW14%6/19/20W3/65·9d
R104PORTIXOL11%8/16/10BW3/78·6d
R105MAJESTIC MOONLIGHT11%8/16/1022/6·8d
R1010LEGAL SQUEEZE9%10/16/1-234/6·9d
R101DELTA CODE9%11/18/105/10·8d
R102PEPPERMINT TWIST9%11/18/107/12·9d
R103GOOD GHOST7%15/110/10B6/23·16d
R106NO DIFFERENCE5%20/115/104B1/9·4d
R109ONE BAD HABIT1%99/150/1-15B8/26·21d

Rank is our power-figure blend, 1 is best. Why reads left to right: whether the pace shape helps (▲) or hurts (▼), the barn (B) and the morning (W). Green is positive, red negative, and BLANK means we have nothing to say, so only rows with signal carry a mark. Model and Fair are ours; Board is the morning line.

Price your own ticket

The exotics builder, the sequence builder and the style ranker all run against this card, 10 races of it, at the real minimum and the real takeout. They live on one page so there is one of each to trust.

Open the builders →

The rest of the card our read on every race: analysis, not a bet
R2Chalk5Tiger Twenty Four35%9/54/5
How it sets up
dirtContested3 of 7 want the lead
Go forward3
Pace helps156

Three of the 7 are entitled to the early lead, so the opening quarter over six furlongs on dirt in a $55,000 claimer should be contested rather than soft.

The board and our number agree in a $55,000 claimer. Three of them want the lead. We make the favourite, #5 TIGER TWENTY FOUR, 35% against the board's 44%, shorter than we think it should be. We are not betting the race; take it as an opinion, not a play.
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoardWorks
5TIGER TWENTY FOUR35%9/54/51/2·10d
6PERFECT FORCE17%9/23/17/11·13d
3MOMENTUM FILES13%7/16/15/151·8d
7CELESTIAL GLAZE11%8/18/11/26·3d
1TRIPP'S PROMISE11%8/110/114/58·49d
2SHARE THE LUDT7%15/115/11/14·24d
4GYPSY DREAMING6%15/115/11/111·10d
R3Chalk2Kipros20%4/15/2
How it sets up
turfEven pace2 of 8 show early speed, short of contested

Nothing in here has a clear claim on the lead. Two have shown early speed, under the count that would rate the race contested.

The board and our number agree in a maiden special weight. We make the top one 20% against the board's 22%.
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoardWorks
2KIPROS20%4/15/22/49·6d
7TICKET TO FAME15%11/24/11/23·6d
3HETCH HETCHY15%6/19/21/4·9d
5GENEVA LAKE14%6/16/11/8·8d
8MAPPED13%13/25/17/17·8d
6JACKPOT JACKIE12%15/26/117/18·8d
4AREQUIPE7%15/112/18/18·8d
1WARRIOR AT HEART4%25/110/114/45·6d
R5Chalk6D'Muehl21%7/22/1
How it sets up
dirtLone speedone gets loose on the lead, 10 going
Alone on the lead7

One of the 10 looks alone on the lead, clear of the field on the early figures over five and a half furlongs on dirt, with nothing else in here entitled to go with it.

The board and our number agree in a maiden special weight. One horse looks alone on the lead, which our pace adjustment credits. The barn's angle in this exact spot is among the best in the field.
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoardWorks
6D'MUEHL21%7/22/16/14·9d
7ANNOTATE17%5/15/11/1·6d
10STELLABRATION14%13/29/21/21·7d
3SUN KISSED BLISS11%8/16/13/12·7d
9MCLIGHT11%8/16/114/53·7d
8BANKTHEMONEYHONEY7%12/110/16/7·25d
1FANTASY FORTUNE6%15/112/12/5·7d
5WHITE STAR6%15/120/11/1·6d
4BUCCHERITA5%20/120/13/6·8d
2CARA'S CHROME4%25/120/12/7·6d
R6Scramble5Fave17%9/27/2
How it sets up
turfEven pacenone of the 12 shows early speed

No runner here is entitled to the lead on the early figures. A field this size means traffic is the risk in here, not the pace. Nothing in here has shown real early speed on the figures the model reads.

A full field of twelve. Nothing separates the top two by more than 1.3 points. We make the top one 17% against the board's 17%.
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoardWorks
5FAVE17%9/27/212/115·7d
2WELCOME ROAD16%5/14/13/32·8d
11GOLDEN MAIDEN13%7/15/12/22·8d
9MIOS11%8/16/16/32·5d
6SEISMIC ACTIVITY8%11/112/19/45·7d
3HIGH TIDE HONEY8%11/18/110/13·7d
10CREAM OF THE CROP7%12/112/19/16·35d
1SARATOGA LAKE4%20/112/120/151·28d
4COURSIERE4%25/115/116/24·8d
7MARGRETFRANCES4%25/120/112/17·9d
12CIAO BABY4%25/120/11/1·7d
8MC CRUISER4%25/115/11/9·7d
R7Chalk1Brunch With Amy26%3/17/5
How it sets up
dirtContested3 of 11 want the lead
Go forward68
Pace helps279

Three of the 11 are entitled to the early lead, so the early fractions over seven furlongs on dirt in a $20,000 claimer should be contested rather than soft.

The board and our number agree in a $20,000 claimer. Three of them want the lead. The barn's angle in this exact spot is among the best in the field. We make the favourite, #1 BRUNCH WITH AMY, 26% against the board's 32%, shorter than we think it should be. We are not betting the race; take it as an opinion, not a play.
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoardWorks
1BRUNCH WITH AMY26%3/17/55/7·25d
3DONNA ROMANO15%6/16/14/14·9d
7BELLE CHERIE14%6/15/144/115·7d
9POCKET QUEENS9%10/112/126/36·4d
5SCARLET'S DREAM7%12/18/11/2·12d
4BOBBY JEAN7%12/110/121/32·4d
6OSCAR BOUND6%15/18/14/48·28d
2CARARRA6%15/115/17/11·4d
10CARADISE3%30/130/14/14·29d
11THAT'STHEFACTJACK3%30/120/11/4·5d
8MOONLIT WEEKEND3%30/130/147/126·8d
R10Lean8Miss Twitter25%3/15/2
How it sets up
turfEven pacenone of the 10 shows early speed
Our top-rated horse in a maiden special weight. We make the top one 25% against the board's 22%. The barn's angle in this exact spot is among the best in the field. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 3 points.
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoardWorks
8MISS TWITTER25%3/15/21/141·9d
7INDOMIKNOW14%6/19/23/65·9d
4PORTIXOL11%8/16/13/78·6d
5MAJESTIC MOONLIGHT11%8/16/12/6·8d
10LEGAL SQUEEZE9%10/16/14/6·9d
1DELTA CODE9%11/18/15/10·8d
2PEPPERMINT TWIST9%11/18/17/12·9d
3GOOD GHOST7%15/110/16/23·16d
6NO DIFFERENCE5%20/115/11/9·4d
9ONE BAD HABIT1%99/150/18/26·21d

Model v0-heuristic-1.4 · cfg aab788cb · code e29d65e9 · takeout (SAR) win 16% / exacta 18.5% · card SHA-256 6a3942fb25f8… · Scratch status checked at 11:20 AM ET. Late scratches void at scoring; the card is never edited.

Edge Card runs a proprietary pre-race probability process: market expectations combined with licensed past-performance, pace, field-composition and connections information, evaluated within each race. Exact implementation details are not published. Structured analysis, not a proven edge; tracked publicly either way. How to read this card · the method in full · every call graded

Verifying this card

Downloadable artifact hash6a3942fb25f8b9f8a99646361f20b64753a66c1b15b5276cc25145bcf64a91c8
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