Saratoga, Fri Aug 28, 2026

10 races · published 12:38 PM ET · card locked

3 value plays today · 8 races we're passing

StatusCompleted · races run

First post1:10 PM ET

Scratch checkChecked · 12:35 PM ET

Archived card · races already run

These plays were published and locked before first post on Fri Aug 28, 2026. They are kept exactly as published, wins and losses alike, and are no longer actionable. Prices shown were the qualifying prices at publication.

Every selection we have ever published is graded on the record. The methodology is on the methodology page.

Late change since this card was published

Listed as Early--Stake. Caught pre-lock in the flag cross-check; the card was published with the field as entered and this erratum voids the selection. confirmed 16:39 UTC · NYRA official scratches and program changes sheet, last updated 10:19:26 AM ET

The card above is not edited. It was hash-stamped before post. Any flagged runner listed here is void at scoring, never counted as a loss.

Edge of the Day

7AWESOMESAUCE

Race 8 · 1 3/8 miles turf

21%model4/1fair8/1boardWINpaid at the close

Our biggest edge on the card today (+12 pts over the board), the price may move either way into post; you’re paid the close. Chosen by rule: the flag with the most value, graded like any other.

Today at SaratogaMostly Sunny, 81°F, wind 7 mph · rain 8%, no off-track flagNWS forecast

Flags 3 of 10 races

New here? How to read a flag · Model, Fair, Board and the pari-mutuel closing rule, explained once.

Today’s plays3 flags

RaceHorseModelBoardEdge

R15Rockabye39%8/5+9 pts R85Venencia12%12/1+6 pts R87Awesomesauce21%8/1+12 pts

Race 1 · 5 1/2 furlongs · turf · Maiden special weightFlag

5ROCKABYE

Model

Fair

Board

39%

3/2

8/5

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down A short board price for this track, and prices this short more often shorten by post than not. Still a win play, but expect a smaller number than the board shows, because pari-mutuel pays the close. Size it smaller.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend. Barn angle strong here

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Even pace2 of 6 show early speed, short of contested

Nobody in here is clearly entitled to the lead. Two have shown early speed, under the count that would rate the race contested.

The model’s read ▾

ROCKABYE is one of the more likely winners we flag today, and the board still prices it like a longer shot. The gap is smaller in points than some, but it is on a horse we genuinely rate to win.

It tops our own win number, 17.5 points clear of the next one.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board	Works
5	ROCKABYE ◀	39%	3/2	8/5	1/3·9d
3	QUARTZ MOUNTAIN	22%	7/2	5/2	•1/7·17d
6	PAY MONTHLY	13%	13/2	5/1	•1/9·13d
2	BOLT ISLAND	11%	8/1	6/1	•1/9·16d
4	BREAKER	10%	9/1	9/2	9/31·16d
1	HORMESIS	5%	20/1	8/1	23/65·12d

Race 8 · 1 3/8 miles · turf · Grade 3 stakesScratched · void

5VENENCIA

Model

Fair

Board

12%

7/1

12/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Price may move A mid board price, it can hold or shorten into post. You are paid the closing price either way, so bet the horse and take the number you get.

Ranks #2 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Even pace2 of 9 show early speed, short of contested

No one horse is entitled to the lead. Two have shown early speed, under the count that would rate the race contested.

The model’s read ▾

A price play. VENENCIA is not likely on its own, but the board has it longer than we do, and on a horse this price that is where a payout actually lives.

It rates fourth on our own win number, 8.4 points behind the top.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board	Works
7	AWESOMESAUCE	21%	4/1	8/1	•1/26·6d
6	STORM MIAMI	13%	13/2	4/1	47/127·6d
4	MASSARAT	13%	13/2	9/2	•1/65·7d
5	VENENCIA ◀	12%	7/1	12/1	22/30·39d
8	SILVOLOGY	11%	8/1	7/2	26/55·6d
1	EVERSHED	10%	9/1	5/1	3/4·7d
9	UNMERITED FAVOR	8%	12/1	8/1	31/110·6d
3	WHITETHORN	7%	15/1	10/1	59/62·7d
2	SNIPSNIPPITYSNIP	6%	15/1	8/1	5/55·7d

Race 8 · 1 3/8 miles · turf · Grade 3 stakesFlag

7AWESOMESAUCE

Model

Fair

Board

21%

4/1

8/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Price may move A mid board price, it can hold or shorten into post. You are paid the closing price either way, so bet the horse and take the number you get.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Even pace2 of 9 show early speed, short of contested

Nothing in here has a clear claim on the lead. Two have shown early speed, under the count that would rate the race contested.

The model’s read ▾

This is the widest gap on today’s card. When our number is that far clear of the board, the disagreement is the whole reason to be here.

It tops our own win number, 7.3 points clear of the next one.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board	Works
7	AWESOMESAUCE ◀	21%	4/1	8/1	•1/26·6d
6	STORM MIAMI	13%	13/2	4/1	47/127·6d
4	MASSARAT	13%	13/2	9/2	•1/65·7d
5	VENENCIA	12%	7/1	12/1	22/30·39d
8	SILVOLOGY	11%	8/1	7/2	26/55·6d
1	EVERSHED	10%	9/1	5/1	3/4·7d
9	UNMERITED FAVOR	8%	12/1	8/1	31/110·6d
3	WHITETHORN	7%	15/1	10/1	59/62·7d
2	SNIPSNIPPITYSNIP	6%	15/1	8/1	5/55·7d

What to know about each race today

R15 1/2 furlongs turfMaiden special weight

1Hormesisfirst start on turf · top third of this field on turf breeding
3Quartz Mountainwent off at 7/5 last time and finished 7th
4Breakerblinkers on

R26 1/2 furlongs dirtClaiming $12,500

3 of the 7 were claimed last time out

6Jackie The JokerRicardo Santana Jr back aboard, a winner on this horse four starts back
7Bellacosedrops from $45,000 to $16,000 off a 5th

R31 1/8 miles dirtClaiming $12,500

1Interlock Empireclaimed last time out
2Shipsationalclaimed last time out
5Spoilerdrops from $30,000 to $12,500 off a second

R46 1/2 furlongs dirtOptional claiming $16,000

3 of the 8 were claimed last time out

5TizmarkusJose Lezcano back aboard, a winner on this horse three starts back

R51 1/16 miles turfMaiden special weight

4 of the 10 have never gone a mile or longer

2Bluegrass Princessfirst start on turf · top third of this field on turf breeding
1Royal County Downbottom third of this field on breeding for the trip
4Hunter Creektop third of this field on breeding for the trip
5Amelia In Airfirst start on turf
7Harpoontop third of this field on breeding for the trip

R66 1/2 furlongs dirtMaiden special weight

3 of the 11 add blinkers

R71 1/16 miles turfStakes, $200,000 purse

1Two's A CrowdJose Lezcano back aboard, a winner on this horse four starts back
4Mi BagoJose L Ortiz back aboard, a winner on this horse two starts back

R81 3/8 miles turfGrade 3 stakes

7AwesomesauceJose L Ortiz back aboard, a winner on this horse four starts back

R96 furlongs dirtOptional claiming $25,000

3 of the 9 were claimed last time out

3Confirmed StarEliseo Ruiz is here for this one ride, the first of the meet

R105 1/2 furlongs turfAllowance $105,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starter

6East Coast GirlEmanuel De Diego is here for this one ride, the first of the meet · first start on turf · bottom third of this field on turf breeding
3Fireballinfirst start on turf
4King Puckblinkers off
9Van Vollenhovenblinkers on

Facts about the race, not predictions. A class move is shown with the finish it came off so you can judge it; we do not claim any of these wins, and only the flagged win bets above are graded on the record.

The whole card every runner, our number beside the board

Every runner on the card: our win probability and fair odds beside the morning line, with the edge between them. Sortable by any column.
R	#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board	Edge	Rank	Why	Works
R15 1/2 furlongs turfMaiden special weightEven pace1 flag
R1	5	ROCKABYE	39%	3/2	8/5	+9	1	B	1/3·9d
R1	3	QUARTZ MOUNTAIN	22%	7/2	5/2	-1	2	B	•1/7·17d
R1	6	PAY MONTHLY	13%	13/2	5/1	0			•1/9·13d
R1	2	BOLT ISLAND	11%	8/1	6/1	0			•1/9·16d
R1	4	BREAKER	10%	9/1	9/2	-4	3		9/31·16d
R1	1	HORMESIS	5%	20/1	8/1	-4	4		23/65·12d
R26 1/2 furlongs dirtClaiming $12,500Contested pace likely (3 early-speed types)pass
R2	7	BELLACOSE	31%	5/2	9/5	+3	1	▼BW	14/16·33d
R2	2	AH CA IRA	18%	9/2	3/1	-1	2	▲W	40/50·12d
R2	4	SHORT SHIFT	13%	13/2	7/2	-4	3	▼W	49/52·36d
R2	5	OPEN SOUL AUTISM	11%	8/1	10/1	+4	5	▲W	53/55·28d
R2	1	CURLIN'S MAGIC	10%	9/1	8/1	+2	4	B	•1/26·54d
R2	3	MISS LAO	9%	10/1	8/1	+1	6		9/33·7d
R2	6	JACKIE THE JOKER	7%	12/1	6/1	-4	7	▼B	23/33·35d
R31 1/8 miles dirtClaiming $12,500Lone speedpass
R3	5	SPOILER	36%	9/5	1/1	-3	1	BW	•1/17·10d
R3	1	INTERLOCK EMPIRE	18%	9/2	4/1	+3	2		5/23·31d
R3	6	FEVER NIGHT	13%	13/2	5/1	0	3	▲B	5/36·9d
R3	7	POLAR BEAR PLUNGE	9%	10/1	6/1	-2	6		1/2·15d
R3	2	SHIPSATIONAL	9%	10/1	8/1	0	5		7/8·5d
R3	3	AMEDEUS MUSIC	7%	12/1	15/1	+3	4	BW	19/24·37d
R3	4	EXPENSIVE CUT	7%	12/1	10/1	0	7	W	29/29·37d
R46 1/2 furlongs dirtOptional claiming $16,000Contested pace likely (4 early-speed types)pass
R4	6	SHOOT THE NICKEL	21%	7/2	5/2	-1	2	▲B	18/87·42d
R4	1	NORWICH	20%	4/1	3/1	0	1	▲	8/78·47d
R4	8	NORMANDY COAST	18%	9/2	4/1	+2	4	▲B	2/11·6d
R4	5	TIZMARKUS	15%	11/2	4/1	0	3		6/15·12d
R4	3	KUNSHAN BRIDGE	11%	8/1	6/1	0	5		5/5·10d
R4	2	PRINCIP	7%	12/1	8/1	-1	6		•1/14·48d
R4	7	TIMAEUS	5%	20/1	15/1	0	7		12/18·35d
R4	4	GRAYWING	3%	30/1	30/1	0	8	B	—
R51 1/16 miles turfMaiden special weightEven pacepass
R5	10	MANDY STEPH	19%	4/1	7/2	+2	1		3/4·8d
R5	2	BLUEGRASS PRINCESS	15%	11/2	4/1	-1	2	W	•1/76·6d
R5	6	SELLONTHENEWS	14%	6/1	9/2	0			22/74·6d
R5	1	ROYAL COUNTY DOWN	12%	7/1	5/1	-1	3	W	4/61·7d
R5	9	CELEBRATE	11%	8/1	6/1	0	4		8/11·7d
R5	3	BITTERSWEET MEMORY	8%	11/1	8/1	0	5		3/28·5d
R5	8	HARMONY MILL	6%	15/1	12/1	0	6	B	7/35·7d
R5	5	AMELIA IN AIR	5%	20/1	12/1	-1	8		9/45·6d
R5	7	HARPOON	5%	20/1	20/1	+1	7		23/57·8d
R5	4	HUNTER CREEK	4%	25/1	15/1	-1	9		1/2·5d
R66 1/2 furlongs dirtMaiden special weightContested pace likely (3 early-speed types)pass
R6	9	MCMOON	18%	9/2	4/1	+2	1	▼W	2/39·6d
R6	11	HAMMERIN HENRY	16%	11/2	5/1	+3	2	▼B	6/14·7d
R6	7	FREEDOM CHARGE	13%	7/1	7/2	-5	5	▼	•1/8·12d
R6	8	FIVE GRAND	13%	7/1	6/1	+1	3	▲	4/33·6d
R6	10	MAXIMILIAN	10%	9/1	6/1	-1	4		•1/8·7d
R6	4	JUST YOU BABY	7%	12/1	10/1	0			4/6·6d
R6	2	THEMISTOCLES	6%	15/1	12/1	0		W	•1/15·6d
R6	5	COMICAL MISCHIEF	5%	20/1	15/1	0		W	•1/18·9d
R6	6	MR RIGATONI	5%	20/1	15/1	0			12/36·9d
R6	3	ED CHARLES	4%	25/1	15/1	-1	6	▲	6/6·8d
R6	1	DOMINICGOFRISKEM	4%	25/1	20/1	0		B	3/4·11d
R71 1/16 miles turfStakes, $200,000 purseContested pace likely (3 early-speed types)pass
R7	4	MI BAGO	28%	5/2	2/1	+2	1	▼W	46/55·28d
R7	2	SPIRIT OF ST LOUIS	24%	3/1	3/1	+5	2	W	•1/16·7d
R7	7	SOUNDS LIKE A PLAN	15%	11/2	6/1	+4	3	▼W	7/151·6d
R7	8	GEORGE BRIGGS	13%	7/1	7/2	-5	4	▲	7/48·7d
R7	5	TONKA WARRIOR	8%	12/1	8/1	-1	5	▲	2/3·12d
R7	6	ITSALLCOMINTOGETHA	5%	20/1	12/1	-1	6	▼W	1/1·11d
R7	1	TWO'S A CROWD	3%	30/1	15/1	-2	7	B	1/3·27d
R7	3	LEON BLUE	2%	50/1	20/1	-2	8	B	2/3·7d
R7	9	RUSSIAN REALM	2%	50/1	30/1	-1	9	▲W	•1/53·6d
R81 3/8 miles turfGrade 3 stakesEven pace2 flags
R8	7	AWESOMESAUCE	21%	4/1	8/1	+12	1	W	•1/26·6d
R8	6	STORM MIAMI	13%	13/2	4/1	-2	3	B	47/127·6d
R8	4	MASSARAT	13%	13/2	9/2	-1	4	W	•1/65·7d
R8	5	VENENCIA	12%	7/1	12/1	+6	2		22/30·39d
R8	8	SILVOLOGY	11%	8/1	7/2	-7	6		26/55·6d
R8	1	EVERSHED	10%	9/1	5/1	-4	5	B	3/4·7d
R8	9	UNMERITED FAVOR	8%	12/1	8/1	-1	7		31/110·6d
R8	3	WHITETHORN	7%	15/1	10/1	0	8		59/62·7d
R8	2	SNIPSNIPPITYSNIP	6%	15/1	8/1	-3	9	W	5/55·7d
R96 furlongs dirtOptional claiming $25,000Even pacepass
R9	4	BAM'S BLISS KISS	20%	4/1	3/1	0	1		7/20·6d
R9	9	SWEET NOTE	16%	11/2	7/2	-2	3		7/18·7d
R9	6	CITY BLOCKS	15%	11/2	5/1	+2	2		2/26·31d
R9	2	PROUD FOOT	11%	8/1	8/1	+2	4		17/39·14d
R9	8	SASSY PRINCESS	10%	9/1	4/1	-5	7		2/7·5d
R9	1	MAJESTIC RETURN	9%	10/1	8/1	0	6	W	•1/11·5d
R9	3	CONFIRMED STAR	8%	11/1	12/1	+2	5		1/2·8d
R9	7	HEAVENLY LIGHT	6%	15/1	12/1	0	8		85/141·27d
R9	5	FUGITIVE STAR	5%	20/1	15/1	0	9		5/11·5d
R105 1/2 furlongs turfAllowance $105,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterContested pace likely (5 early-speed types)pass
R10	1	ILLMATIC	35%	9/5	7/5	+3	1	▲	2/5·9d
R10	8	JOKER ON FIRE	17%	5/1	3/1	-2	2		7/12·8d
R10	5	RHYTON	12%	7/1	6/1	+1	4	▲	3/22·9d
R10	6	EAST COAST GIRL	9%	10/1	10/1	+2	3	▼BW	•1/15·9d
R10	3	FIREBALLIN	7%	15/1	12/1	+1	5	▼W	•1/39·9d
R10	9	VAN VOLLENHOVEN	6%	15/1	10/1	-1	6	W	•1/11·7d
R10	7	STORMY BIRTHDAY	5%	20/1	12/1	-1	7	B	31/139·6d
R10	4	KING PUCK	4%	20/1	15/1	-1	8		6/16·10d
R10	2	THREE THIRTEEN	4%	25/1	15/1	-1	9		26/48·7d

Rank is our power-figure blend, 1 is best. Why reads left to right: whether the pace shape helps (▲) or hurts (▼), the barn (B) and the morning (W). Green is positive, red negative, and BLANK means we have nothing to say, so only rows with signal carry a mark. Model and Fair are ours; Board is the morning line.

Price your own ticket

The exotics builder, the sequence builder and the style ranker all run against this card, 10 races of it, at the real minimum and the real takeout. They live on one page so there is one of each to trust.

Open the builders →

The rest of the card our read on every race: analysis, not a bet

R2Lean7Bellacose31%5/29/5

How it sets up

dirtContested3 of 7 want the lead

Go forward467

Pace helps25

Three of the 7 are entitled to the early lead, so the opening quarter over six and a half furlongs on dirt in a $12,500 claimer should be contested rather than soft.

Our top-rated horse in a $12,500 claimer. Three of them want the lead. The barn's angle in this exact spot is among the best in the field. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 3 points.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board	Works
7	BELLACOSE	31%	5/2	9/5	14/16·33d
2	AH CA IRA	18%	9/2	3/1	40/50·12d
4	SHORT SHIFT	13%	13/2	7/2	49/52·36d
5	OPEN SOUL AUTISM	11%	8/1	10/1	53/55·28d
1	CURLIN'S MAGIC	10%	9/1	8/1	•1/26·54d
3	MISS LAO	9%	10/1	8/1	9/33·7d
6	JACKIE THE JOKER	7%	12/1	6/1	23/33·35d

R3Chalk5Spoiler36%9/51/1

How it sets up

dirtLone speedone gets loose on the lead, 7 going

Alone on the lead6

One of the 7 looks alone on the lead, clear of the field on the early figures over a mile and an eighth on dirt, with nothing else in here entitled to go with it.

The board and our number agree in a $12,500 claimer. One horse looks alone on the lead, which our pace adjustment credits. The barn's angle in this exact spot is among the best in the field.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board	Works
5	SPOILER	36%	9/5	1/1	•1/17·10d
1	INTERLOCK EMPIRE	18%	9/2	4/1	5/23·31d
6	FEVER NIGHT	13%	13/2	5/1	5/36·9d
7	POLAR BEAR PLUNGE	9%	10/1	6/1	1/2·15d
2	SHIPSATIONAL	9%	10/1	8/1	7/8·5d
3	AMEDEUS MUSIC	7%	12/1	15/1	19/24·37d
4	EXPENSIVE CUT	7%	12/1	10/1	29/29·37d

R4Chalk6Shoot The Nickel21%7/25/2

How it sets up

dirtContested4 of 8 want the lead

Pace helps168

Four of the 8 are entitled to the early lead, so the opening quarter over six and a half furlongs on dirt in a $16,000 optional claimer should be contested rather than soft.

The board and our number agree in a $16,000 optional claimer. Four horses want the front, so the early fractions should be honest. The barn's angle in this exact spot is among the best in the field.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board	Works
6	SHOOT THE NICKEL	21%	7/2	5/2	18/87·42d
1	NORWICH	20%	4/1	3/1	8/78·47d
8	NORMANDY COAST	18%	9/2	4/1	2/11·6d
5	TIZMARKUS	15%	11/2	4/1	6/15·12d
3	KUNSHAN BRIDGE	11%	8/1	6/1	5/5·10d
2	PRINCIP	7%	12/1	8/1	•1/14·48d
7	TIMAEUS	5%	20/1	15/1	12/18·35d
4	GRAYWING	3%	30/1	30/1	—

R5Lean10Mandy Steph19%4/17/2

How it sets up

turfEven pacenone of the 10 shows early speed

No runner here is entitled to the lead on the early figures. A field this size means traffic is the risk in here, not the pace. Nothing in here has shown real early speed on the figures the model reads.

Our top-rated horse in a maiden special weight. We make the top one 19% against the board's 17%. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 2 points.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board	Works
10	MANDY STEPH	19%	4/1	7/2	3/4·8d
2	BLUEGRASS PRINCESS	15%	11/2	4/1	•1/76·6d
6	SELLONTHENEWS	14%	6/1	9/2	22/74·6d
1	ROYAL COUNTY DOWN	12%	7/1	5/1	4/61·7d
9	CELEBRATE	11%	8/1	6/1	8/11·7d
3	BITTERSWEET MEMORY	8%	11/1	8/1	3/28·5d
8	HARMONY MILL	6%	15/1	12/1	7/35·7d
5	AMELIA IN AIR	5%	20/1	12/1	9/45·6d
7	HARPOON	5%	20/1	20/1	23/57·8d
4	HUNTER CREEK	4%	25/1	15/1	1/2·5d

R6Lean9Mcmoon18%9/24/1

How it sets up

dirtContested3 of 11 want the lead

Go forward7911

Pace helps38

Three of the 11 are entitled to the early lead, so the opening quarter over six and a half furlongs on dirt in a maiden special weight should be contested rather than soft.

Our top-rated horse in a maiden special weight. Three of them want the lead. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 2 points.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board	Works
9	MCMOON	18%	9/2	4/1	2/39·6d
11	HAMMERIN HENRY	16%	11/2	5/1	6/14·7d
7	FREEDOM CHARGE	13%	7/1	7/2	•1/8·12d
8	FIVE GRAND	13%	7/1	6/1	4/33·6d
10	MAXIMILIAN	10%	9/1	6/1	•1/8·7d
4	JUST YOU BABY	7%	12/1	10/1	4/6·6d
2	THEMISTOCLES	6%	15/1	12/1	•1/15·6d
5	COMICAL MISCHIEF	5%	20/1	15/1	•1/18·9d
6	MR RIGATONI	5%	20/1	15/1	12/36·9d
3	ED CHARLES	4%	25/1	15/1	6/6·8d
1	DOMINICGOFRISKEM	4%	25/1	20/1	3/4·11d

R7Chalk4Mi Bago28%5/22/1

How it sets up

turfContested3 of 9 want the lead

Go forward467

Pace helps589

Three of the 9 are entitled to the early lead, so the early fractions over a mile and a sixteenth on turf in a starter allowance should be contested rather than soft.

The board and our number agree in a starter allowance. Three of them want the lead.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board	Works
4	MI BAGO	28%	5/2	2/1	46/55·28d
2	SPIRIT OF ST LOUIS	24%	3/1	3/1	•1/16·7d
7	SOUNDS LIKE A PLAN	15%	11/2	6/1	7/151·6d
8	GEORGE BRIGGS	13%	7/1	7/2	7/48·7d
5	TONKA WARRIOR	8%	12/1	8/1	2/3·12d
6	ITSALLCOMINTOGETHA	5%	20/1	12/1	1/1·11d
1	TWO'S A CROWD	3%	30/1	15/1	1/3·27d
3	LEON BLUE	2%	50/1	20/1	2/3·7d
9	RUSSIAN REALM	2%	50/1	30/1	•1/53·6d

R9Chalk4Bam's Bliss Kiss20%4/13/1

How it sets up

dirtEven pace1 of 9 shows early speed, short of contested

The board and our number agree in a $25,000 optional claimer. We make the top one 20% against the board's 20%.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board	Works
4	BAM'S BLISS KISS	20%	4/1	3/1	7/20·6d
9	SWEET NOTE	16%	11/2	7/2	7/18·7d
6	CITY BLOCKS	15%	11/2	5/1	2/26·31d
2	PROUD FOOT	11%	8/1	8/1	17/39·14d
8	SASSY PRINCESS	10%	9/1	4/1	2/7·5d
1	MAJESTIC RETURN	9%	10/1	8/1	•1/11·5d
3	CONFIRMED STAR	8%	11/1	12/1	1/2·8d
7	HEAVENLY LIGHT	6%	15/1	12/1	85/141·27d
5	FUGITIVE STAR	5%	20/1	15/1	5/11·5d

R10Lean1Illmatic35%9/57/5

How it sets up

turfContested5 of 9 want the lead

Go forward36

Pace helps15

Five of the 9 are entitled to the early lead, so the opening quarter over five and a half furlongs on turf in an allowance should be contested rather than soft.

Our top-rated horse in an allowance. Five horses want the front, so the early fractions should be honest. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 3 points.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board	Works
1	ILLMATIC	35%	9/5	7/5	2/5·9d
8	JOKER ON FIRE	17%	5/1	3/1	7/12·8d
5	RHYTON	12%	7/1	6/1	3/22·9d
6	EAST COAST GIRL	9%	10/1	10/1	•1/15·9d
3	FIREBALLIN	7%	15/1	12/1	•1/39·9d
9	VAN VOLLENHOVEN	6%	15/1	10/1	•1/11·7d
7	STORMY BIRTHDAY	5%	20/1	12/1	31/139·6d
4	KING PUCK	4%	20/1	15/1	6/16·10d
2	THREE THIRTEEN	4%	25/1	15/1	26/48·7d

Model v0-heuristic-1.4 · cfg aab788cb · code 82d07f70 · takeout (SAR) win 16% / exacta 18.5% · card SHA-256 842f3091d513… · Scratch status checked at 12:35 PM ET. Late scratches void at scoring; the card is never edited.

Edge Card runs a proprietary pre-race probability process: market expectations combined with licensed past-performance, pace, field-composition and connections information, evaluated within each race. Exact implementation details are not published. Structured analysis, not a proven edge; tracked publicly either way. How to read this card · the method in full · every call graded

Verifying this card

Downloadable artifact hash	`842f3091d513bdb0aee3fe787f776c7de7b20094d4e2640216e3ab6304e17387`
OpenTimestamps status	OpenTimestamps calendar commitment; Bitcoin confirmation pending