Saratoga, Sat Aug 1, 2026

12 races · published 9:46 AM ET · card locked

4 value plays today · 8 races we're passing

StatusCompleted · races run

First post1:10 PM ET

Scratch checkChecked · 9:46 AM ET

Archived card · races already run

These plays were published and locked before first post on Sat Aug 1, 2026. They are kept exactly as published, wins and losses alike, and are no longer actionable. Prices shown were the qualifying prices at publication.

Every selection we have ever published is graded on the record. The methodology is on the methodology page.

Edge of the Day

5NONCONSECUTIVETRMS

Race 12 · 1 1/16 miles turf

31%model5/2fair5/2boardWINpaid at the close

Our biggest edge on the card today (+8 pts over the board), the crowd will likely bet it down, so expect a shorter number, so size it smaller. Chosen by rule: the flag with the most value, graded like any other.

Today at SaratogaMostly Cloudy, 84°F, wind 3 mph · rain 4%, no off-track flagNWS forecast

Flags 4 of 12 races

New here? How to read a flag · Model, Fair, Board and the pari-mutuel closing rule, explained once.

Today’s plays4 flags

RaceHorseModelBoardEdge

R32Tuscan Sky17%6/1+5 pts R64Booked39%7/5+6 pts R111Illmatic22%9/2+8 pts R125Nonconsecutivetrms31%5/2+8 pts

Race 3 · 1 mile · dirt · Claiming $100,000Flag

2TUSCAN SKY

Model

Fair

Board

17%

5/1

6/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Price may move A mid board price, it can hold or shorten into post. You are paid the closing price either way, so bet the horse and take the number you get.

Ranks #2 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Contested3 of 7 want the lead

Go forward147

Pace helps235

Three of the 7 are entitled to the early lead, so the early fractions over a mile on dirt in a $100,000 claimer should be contested rather than soft.

The model’s read ▾

It rates second on our own win number, 6.8 points behind the top, and with 3 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.

3 of the 7 want the front over a mile on dirt, and this one profiles to come from off it, so we pushed its number up for that (×1.1).

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
6	REASONED ANALYSIS	23%	7/2	2/1
2	TUSCAN SKY ◀	17%	5/1	6/1
3	DREAMLIKE	16%	5/1	9/2
1	GEWURZTRAMINER	13%	13/2	4/1
5	ELIMINATE	12%	7/1	5/1
7	MR. PAPAGIORGIO	9%	10/1	6/1
4	OTELLO	9%	10/1	8/1

Race 6 · 6 1/2 furlongs · dirt · Grade 2 stakesFlag

4BOOKED

Model

Fair

Board

39%

8/5

7/5

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down A short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post, pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend; projects as the lone early speed.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Lone speedone gets loose on the lead, 6 going

Alone on the lead4

One of the 6 looks alone on the lead, clear of the field on the early figures over six and a half furlongs on dirt, with nothing else in here entitled to go with it.

The model’s read ▾

BOOKED is one of the more likely winners we flag today, and the board still prices it like a longer shot. The gap is smaller in points than some, but it is on a horse we genuinely rate to win.

It tops our own win number, 17.2 points clear of the next one, in a race where one of them looks like getting loose on the lead.

In a field of 6 it profiles as the lone speed over six and a half furlongs on dirt, likely uncontested on the front end, and we bumped it for that (×1.15).

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
4	BOOKED ◀	39%	8/5	7/5
6	FLIGHT COMMAND	22%	7/2	9/5
3	TWINKLE TOWN	16%	11/2	7/2
1	HOW'S AL TODAY	9%	10/1	6/1
5	UNCLE KEF	8%	12/1	12/1
2	RASASI	6%	15/1	15/1

Race 11 · 5 1/2 furlongs · turf · Allowance $105,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterFlag

1ILLMATIC

Model

Fair

Board

22%

7/2

9/2

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Price may move A mid board price, it can hold or shorten into post. You are paid the closing price either way, so bet the horse and take the number you get.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Contested4 of 9 want the lead

Go forward5

Pace helps379

Four of the 9 are entitled to the early lead, so the opening quarter over five and a half furlongs on turf in an allowance should be contested rather than soft.

The model’s read ▾

It rates second on our own win number, 5.0 points behind the top, and with 4 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.

4 of the 9 want the front over five and a half furlongs on turf, so the early fractions should be honest.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
9	DAKOTA COUNTRY	27%	5/2	8/5
1	ILLMATIC ◀	22%	7/2	9/2
2	JOKER ON FIRE	13%	7/1	5/1
5	BLAMICKER	8%	11/1	12/1
7	RHYTON	8%	12/1	8/1
6	KING PUCK	6%	15/1	8/1
3	MOZAMBIQUE	6%	15/1	10/1
4	VAN VOLLENHOVEN	6%	15/1	10/1
8	DILIELLO	4%	25/1	15/1

Race 12 · 1 1/16 miles · turf · Maiden special weightFlag

5NONCONSECUTIVETRMS

Model

Fair

Board

31%

5/2

our win %

break-even

the morning line

The board and our fair price round to the same number (5/2), so the gap is finer than fractional odds show, it is +8.3 points of win probability, not a longer price.

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down A short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post, pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Lone speedone gets loose on the lead, 9 going

Alone on the lead2

One of the 9 looks alone on the lead, clear of the field on the early figures over a mile and a sixteenth on turf, with nothing else in here entitled to go with it.

The model’s read ▾

This is the widest gap on today’s card. When our number is that far clear of the board, the disagreement is the whole reason to be here.

It tops our own win number, 13.3 points clear of the next one, in a race where one of them looks like getting loose on the lead.

In a field of 9 it profiles as the lone speed over a mile and a sixteenth on turf, likely alone on the lead.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
5	NONCONSECUTIVETRMS ◀	31%	5/2	5/2
7	HEDGE BOOK	17%	5/1	3/1
3	AMICABLE FARCE	13%	7/1	5/1
2	MUSIC BOX	10%	9/1	8/1
6	FANCY N' FLIGHT	9%	11/1	4/1
4	TIMELESS MELODY	8%	12/1	10/1
8	LOSE THE BLUES	5%	20/1	15/1
1	PRIME CONNECTION	5%	20/1	15/1
9	SERENIQUE	3%	30/1	20/1

The whole card every runner, our number beside the board

Every runner on the card: our win probability and fair odds beside the morning line, with the edge between them. Sortable by any column.
R	#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board	Edge	Rank	Why
R11 1/16 miles turfMaiden special weightEven pacepass
R1	5	VOYAGER	35%	9/5	8/5	+5	1
R1	3	CORRELATION TRADE	27%	3/1	2/1	0
R1	2	BASHFULLY	14%	6/1	9/2	0
R1	4	BITTERSWEET MEMORY	9%	11/1	8/1	0
R1	7	BOLT ISLAND	7%	12/1	10/1	0
R1	1	PAVLOVA'S PALACE	7%	15/1	6/1	-4	2
R1	6	SO ANGELINA	2%	50/1	30/1	-1	3
R26 furlongs dirtMaiden special weightEven pacepass
R2	4	VELORA	17%	5/1	7/2	0
R2	5	CYBER BABY	14%	6/1	9/2	0
R2	6	LOT OF LOON	13%	13/2	5/1	0
R2	8	DOITFORJACK	11%	8/1	6/1	0
R2	2	ANNOTATE	11%	8/1	6/1	0	1
R2	7	HARLOW DRIVE	9%	10/1	8/1	0
R2	3	LUCK PENNY	9%	11/1	8/1	0
R2	9	WILDEST DREAMS	8%	11/1	10/1	+1	2
R2	1	BLESSEDNOTBOTHERED	8%	12/1	8/1	-1	3
R31 mile dirtClaiming $100,000Contested pace likely (3 early-speed types)1 flag
R3	6	REASONED ANALYSIS	23%	7/2	2/1	-3	1
R3	2	TUSCAN SKY	17%	5/1	6/1	+5	2	▲
R3	3	DREAMLIKE	16%	5/1	9/2	+2	4	▲
R3	1	GEWURZTRAMINER	13%	13/2	4/1	-2	3	▼
R3	5	ELIMINATE	12%	7/1	5/1	-1	7	▲
R3	7	MR. PAPAGIORGIO	9%	10/1	6/1	-2	6	▼
R3	4	OTELLO	9%	10/1	8/1	+1	5	▼
R46 furlongs dirtMaiden special weightEven pacepass
R4	9	DREAM MORE	20%	4/1	3/1	0
R4	6	CYBERSTEEL	16%	5/1	4/1	0
R4	1	SUBJUGATION	15%	11/2	9/2	+1	1
R4	8	ROLL WAVE	11%	8/1	6/1	0
R4	4	CHIEF OF STAFF	11%	8/1	6/1	0
R4	7	PINPOINT	8%	12/1	8/1	-1	2
R4	2	JACKPOT ROCKET	7%	12/1	10/1	0
R4	3	FARSIDEOFTHEMOON	7%	12/1	10/1	0
R4	5	APOTHEON	5%	20/1	15/1	0
R56 furlongs dirtMaiden special weightEven pacepass
R5	6	WYNA	16%	5/1	4/1	0
R5	8	LIFE CHANGING	13%	13/2	5/1	0
R5	10	FIRST SITE	12%	15/2	6/1	+1	1
R5	7	VIRABHADRASANA	11%	8/1	6/1	0
R5	2	JUDY'S ROCKETTE	11%	8/1	6/1	0
R5	4	FAIR PRACTICE	9%	10/1	8/1	0
R5	1	CHARLOTTE'S BEACH	8%	11/1	8/1	0	2
R5	9	FLIGHTRESS	8%	11/1	8/1	0
R5	3	AMELIA IN AIR	7%	15/1	10/1	0
R5	5	MAYBE IT'S DESTINY	5%	20/1	15/1	0
R66 1/2 furlongs dirtGrade 2 stakesLone speed1 flag
R6	4	BOOKED	39%	8/5	7/5	+6	1	▲
R6	6	FLIGHT COMMAND	22%	7/2	9/5	-6	2
R6	3	TWINKLE TOWN	16%	11/2	7/2	-2	3
R6	1	HOW'S AL TODAY	9%	10/1	6/1	-2	5
R6	5	UNCLE KEF	8%	12/1	12/1	+2	4
R6	2	RASASI	6%	15/1	15/1	+1	6
R71 1/8 miles dirtAllowance $120,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterEven pacepass
R7	8	IRON DOME	18%	9/2	7/2	+1	1
R7	4	UNIVERSE	12%	7/1	8/1	+4	2
R7	1	SASSMASTER	12%	7/1	3/1	-7	7
R7	7	PAGODE	11%	8/1	5/1	-2	4
R7	3	THUNDEROUSLY	10%	9/1	6/1	-1	4
R7	2	HOP SING	9%	10/1	6/1	-2	8
R7	6	EXPECT THE BEST	9%	11/1	15/1	+4	3
R7	5	STATESMAN	8%	11/1	10/1	+1	6
R7	10	C MCGRIFF	5%	20/1	20/1	+1	9
R7	9	MINORINCONVENIENCE	4%	20/1	20/1	+1	10
R85 1/2 furlongs turfAllowance $120,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterContested pace likely (4 early-speed types)pass
R8	2	LADY JANCIS	18%	9/2	3/1	-1	1	▼
R8	5	SILSBEE	15%	11/2	5/2	-7	5	▲
R8	3	ONLY FOR NOW	15%	11/2	5/1	+2	4	▲
R8	1	BIG EARN	13%	13/2	6/1	+2	2
R8	7	ARMY GAL	11%	8/1	15/1	+6	3
R8	9	DUBOFF	7%	12/1	12/1	+1	6	▲
R8	6	HEAT MISSILE	6%	15/1	12/1	0
R8	8	PAULA'S A STAR	5%	15/1	8/1	-3	7	▼
R8	4	JUST ADD WATER	4%	20/1	15/1	0	8
R8	10	QUEEN JUNO	4%	25/1	20/1	0	9
R91 1/16 miles turfGrade 3 stakesEven pacepass
R9	9	LION LAKE	22%	7/2	3/1	+3	1
R9	6	AMBERGLEN	19%	4/1	5/2	-3	2
R9	4	TIME TO DREAM	15%	11/2	5/1	+2	3
R9	8	DEEP LEARNING	12%	15/2	7/2	-5	6
R9	5	ULTIMATE LOVE	10%	9/1	10/1	+3	4
R9	1	HONFLEUR	9%	10/1	10/1	+2	5
R9	7	CODE	4%	25/1	15/1	-1	7
R9	2	STAR ACTRESS	4%	25/1	15/1	-1	8
R9	3	CANDY MOONSHINE	4%	25/1	15/1	-1	9
R101 1/8 miles dirtGrade 2 stakesLone speedpass
R10	5	COMMANDMENT	35%	9/5	6/5	0	1
R10	3	RENEGADE	32%	2/1	7/5	0	2
R10	1	CHIP HONCHO	19%	4/1	3/1	0	3	▲
R10	4	SILENT TACTIC	12%	15/2	6/1	+1	4
R10	2	ASKED AND ANSWERED	2%	50/1	30/1	0	5
R115 1/2 furlongs turfAllowance $105,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterContested pace likely (4 early-speed types)1 flag
R11	9	DAKOTA COUNTRY	27%	5/2	8/5	-3	2	▲
R11	1	ILLMATIC	22%	7/2	9/2	+8	1
R11	2	JOKER ON FIRE	13%	7/1	5/1	0	3
R11	5	BLAMICKER	8%	11/1	12/1	+2	4	▼
R11	7	RHYTON	8%	12/1	8/1	-1	5	▲
R11	6	KING PUCK	6%	15/1	8/1	-2	6
R11	3	MOZAMBIQUE	6%	15/1	10/1	-1	8	▲
R11	4	VAN VOLLENHOVEN	6%	15/1	10/1	-1	7
R11	8	DILIELLO	4%	25/1	15/1	-1	9
R121 1/16 miles turfMaiden special weightLone speed1 flag
R12	5	NONCONSECUTIVETRMS	31%	5/2	5/2	+8	1
R12	7	HEDGE BOOK	17%	5/1	3/1	-2	2
R12	3	AMICABLE FARCE	13%	7/1	5/1	0	3
R12	2	MUSIC BOX	10%	9/1	8/1	+2	4	▲
R12	6	FANCY N' FLIGHT	9%	11/1	4/1	-7	7
R12	4	TIMELESS MELODY	8%	12/1	10/1	0	5
R12	8	LOSE THE BLUES	5%	20/1	15/1	0
R12	1	PRIME CONNECTION	5%	20/1	15/1	0	6
R12	9	SERENIQUE	3%	30/1	20/1	0

Rank is our power-figure blend, 1 is best. Why reads left to right: whether the pace shape helps (▲) or hurts (▼), the barn (B) and the morning (W). Green is positive, red negative, and BLANK means we have nothing to say, so only rows with signal carry a mark. Model and Fair are ours; Board is the morning line.

Price your own ticket

The exotics builder, the sequence builder and the style ranker all run against this card, 12 races of it, at the real minimum and the real takeout. They live on one page so there is one of each to trust.

Open the builders →

The rest of the card our read on every race: analysis, not a bet

R1Lean5Voyager35%9/58/5

How it sets up

turfEven pacenone of the 7 shows early speed

No one horse is entitled to the lead. Nothing in here has shown real early speed on the figures the model reads.

Our top-rated horse in a maiden special weight. We make the top one 35% against the board's 30%. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 5 points.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
5	VOYAGER	35%	9/5	8/5
3	CORRELATION TRADE	27%	3/1	2/1
2	BASHFULLY	14%	6/1	9/2
4	BITTERSWEET MEMORY	9%	11/1	8/1
7	BOLT ISLAND	7%	12/1	10/1
1	PAVLOVA'S PALACE	7%	15/1	6/1
6	SO ANGELINA	2%	50/1	30/1

R2Scramble4Velora17%5/17/2

How it sets up

dirtEven pacenone of the 9 shows early speed

Nobody in here is clearly entitled to the lead. Nothing in here has shown real early speed on the figures the model reads.

An open heat. Nothing separates the top two by more than 2.8 points. We make the top one 17% against the board's 17%.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
4	VELORA	17%	5/1	7/2
5	CYBER BABY	14%	6/1	9/2
6	LOT OF LOON	13%	13/2	5/1
8	DOITFORJACK	11%	8/1	6/1
2	ANNOTATE	11%	8/1	6/1
7	HARLOW DRIVE	9%	10/1	8/1
3	LUCK PENNY	9%	11/1	8/1
9	WILDEST DREAMS	8%	11/1	10/1
1	BLESSEDNOTBOTHERED	8%	12/1	8/1

R4Scramble9Dream More20%4/13/1

How it sets up

dirtEven pace1 of 9 shows early speed, short of contested

Nothing in here has a clear claim on the lead. Only one has shown genuine early speed, without enough company to rate the race contested.

An open heat. Nothing separates the top two by more than 3.5 points. We make the top one 20% against the board's 20%.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
9	DREAM MORE	20%	4/1	3/1
6	CYBERSTEEL	16%	5/1	4/1
1	SUBJUGATION	15%	11/2	9/2
8	ROLL WAVE	11%	8/1	6/1
4	CHIEF OF STAFF	11%	8/1	6/1
7	PINPOINT	8%	12/1	8/1
2	JACKPOT ROCKET	7%	12/1	10/1
3	FARSIDEOFTHEMOON	7%	12/1	10/1
5	APOTHEON	5%	20/1	15/1

R5Scramble6Wyna16%5/14/1

How it sets up

dirtEven pace1 of 10 shows early speed, short of contested

No runner here is entitled to the lead on the early figures. A field this size means traffic is the risk in here, not the pace. Only one has shown genuine early speed, without enough company to rate the race contested.

A full field of ten. Nothing separates the top two by more than 3.0 points. We make the top one 16% against the board's 16%.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
6	WYNA	16%	5/1	4/1
8	LIFE CHANGING	13%	13/2	5/1
10	FIRST SITE	12%	15/2	6/1
7	VIRABHADRASANA	11%	8/1	6/1
2	JUDY'S ROCKETTE	11%	8/1	6/1
4	FAIR PRACTICE	9%	10/1	8/1
1	CHARLOTTE'S BEACH	8%	11/1	8/1
9	FLIGHTRESS	8%	11/1	8/1
3	AMELIA IN AIR	7%	15/1	10/1
5	MAYBE IT'S DESTINY	5%	20/1	15/1

R7Chalk8Iron Dome18%9/27/2

How it sets up

dirtEven pace1 of 10 shows early speed, short of contested

The board and our number agree in an allowance. A full field of ten.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
8	IRON DOME	18%	9/2	7/2
4	UNIVERSE	12%	7/1	8/1
1	SASSMASTER	12%	7/1	3/1
7	PAGODE	11%	8/1	5/1
3	THUNDEROUSLY	10%	9/1	6/1
2	HOP SING	9%	10/1	6/1
6	EXPECT THE BEST	9%	11/1	15/1
5	STATESMAN	8%	11/1	10/1
10	C MCGRIFF	5%	20/1	20/1
9	MINORINCONVENIENCE	4%	20/1	20/1

R8Scramble2Lady Jancis18%9/23/1

How it sets up

turfContested4 of 10 want the lead

Go forward28

Pace helps359

Four of the 10 are entitled to the early lead, so the opening quarter over five and a half furlongs on turf in an allowance should be contested rather than soft.

A full field of ten. Nothing separates the top two by more than 3.3 points. Four horses want the front, so the early fractions should be honest. We make the favourite, #5 SILSBEE, 15% against the board's 22%, shorter than we think it should be. Our own top-rated is #2 LADY JANCIS. We are not betting the race; take it as an opinion, not a play.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
2	LADY JANCIS	18%	9/2	3/1
5	SILSBEE	15%	11/2	5/2
3	ONLY FOR NOW	15%	11/2	5/1
1	BIG EARN	13%	13/2	6/1
7	ARMY GAL	11%	8/1	15/1
9	DUBOFF	7%	12/1	12/1
6	HEAT MISSILE	6%	15/1	12/1
8	PAULA'S A STAR	5%	15/1	8/1
4	JUST ADD WATER	4%	20/1	15/1
10	QUEEN JUNO	4%	25/1	20/1

R9Lean9Lion Lake22%7/23/1

How it sets up

turfEven pace2 of 9 show early speed, short of contested

Our top-rated horse in a Grade 3. We make the top one 22% against the board's 19%. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 3 points.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
9	LION LAKE	22%	7/2	3/1
6	AMBERGLEN	19%	4/1	5/2
4	TIME TO DREAM	15%	11/2	5/1
8	DEEP LEARNING	12%	15/2	7/2
5	ULTIMATE LOVE	10%	9/1	10/1
1	HONFLEUR	9%	10/1	10/1
7	CODE	4%	25/1	15/1
2	STAR ACTRESS	4%	25/1	15/1
3	CANDY MOONSHINE	4%	25/1	15/1

R10Chalk5Commandment35%9/56/5

How it sets up

dirtLone speedone gets loose on the lead, 5 going

Alone on the lead1

One of the 5 looks alone on the lead, clear of the field on the early figures over a mile and an eighth on dirt, with nothing else in here entitled to go with it.

The board and our number agree in a Grade 2. One horse looks alone on the lead, which our pace adjustment credits.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
5	COMMANDMENT	35%	9/5	6/5
3	RENEGADE	32%	2/1	7/5
1	CHIP HONCHO	19%	4/1	3/1
4	SILENT TACTIC	12%	15/2	6/1
2	ASKED AND ANSWERED	2%	50/1	30/1

Model v0-heuristic-1.4 · cfg aab788cb · code 9abc29fc · takeout (SAR) win 16% / exacta 18.5% · card SHA-256 e4a0b565b400… · Scratch status checked at 9:46 AM ET. Late scratches void at scoring; the card is never edited.

This card was produced under the methodology version identified at publication. Detailed implementation parameters are proprietary and are no longer displayed. The original selections, probabilities, prices, timestamps, grading and integrity evidence are unchanged, and the locked card file below is the original. How to read this card · the method in full · every call graded

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Downloadable artifact hash	`e4a0b565b4004683629721deccd6706e9a0700957db9d6c9d1f6acb839779a3e`
OpenTimestamps status	OpenTimestamps calendar commitment; Bitcoin confirmation pending