Saratoga · 12 races · published 10:29 AM ET · card locked
4 value plays today · 8 races we're passing
Edge of the Day
8EMERGING MARKET
Race 6 · 1 1/8 miles dirt
40%model3/2fair8/5boardWINpaid at the close
Our biggest edge on the card today (+9 pts over the board) — the crowd will likely bet it down, so expect a shorter number — size it smaller. Chosen by rule: the flag with the most value, graded like any other.
We lose most single flags — that’s expected. The edge is price: when we’re right, the board paid more than fair. Our 30% picks win about 30% (see the calibration curve), and every call is graded against the closing odds — wins and losses.
No set price. On the tote you’re paid the closing odds, so the edge isn’t a line you beat early — it’s the gap between our fair number and where the crowd lands. We grade each flag against the actual close.
Our last miss: SAR R10 War And Majesty, flagged at 6/1, didn’t win — on the record like every call.
Today at SaratogaSunny, 83°F, wind 3 mph · rain 0% — no off-track flagNWS forecast
How this card is made & how to verify it
Edge Card v0 is a transparent heuristic, not a trained model: Prime-Power softmax blended 65/35 with the de-vigged morning line, plus published rules-based pace and trainer-form adjustments (the trainer angle is used as a model input; the raw figure is never published). Constants on the methodology page. Structured analysis, not proven edge; tracked publicly either way.
It reads Brisnet figures, pace, and trainer form — not jockey, trip, or track bias yet; those arrive with the trained v1 model. The trainer angle is used as a model input only; we never publish the raw figure. Fair odds are 1 ÷ our win probability.
The hold/shorten read on each flag is an early signal from its committed board price — long-priced flags the crowd leaves alone tend to hold, short ones get bet down. It’s a heuristic on a small sample; every call is graded on the record.
Model v0-heuristic-1.4 · cfg aab788cb · code 030f208e · takeout (SAR) win 16% / exacta 18.5% · card SHA-256 f82ed51d5645… · Scratches as of 10:00 AM ET. Late scratches void at scoring; the card is never edited.
Powered by Brisnet data
Flags 4 of 12 races
New here? How to read a flag
Model
Our estimated win chance for the horse.
Fair
The odds that chance implies — the price where a bet breaks even.
Board
The morning line, the track's early guess at the odds.
Win bet
Bet the horse to win. Pari-mutuel pays the closing price no matter when you bet, so you're backing the horse, not a fixed price.
Hold / bet down
Whether the price should stay long or get bet down by post — how much of the edge is likely to survive.
The rest of the card
Most races. We still show our top pick and a read on it, but there's no overlay worth a bet.
Odds note: 7/2 is the same as +350.
Race 4 · 1 mile · turf · Alw 105000n1xFlag
5INSPEIGHTOFCHARLIE
Model
Fair
Board
26%
3/1
7/2
our win %
break-even
the morning line
We flag it because the board (7/2) pays more than our fair price (3/1). Same horse, longer price.
The market
17%
Edge Card
26% +9 pts
▸ WIN BET · #5 to win · our fair 3/1, paid at the close
Likely bet downA short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post — pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.
Ranks #1 in our power figure blend. Even pace
Data · Brisnet
The model’s read ▾
We make INSPEIGHTOFCHARLIE a 26% chance in the 1 mile turf; the line implies about 17%, and that 9-point gap over the board is the flag.
Our power-rating blend makes it the best of this field — which is why the board’s price looks a step generous.
To play it: a straight win bet on #5. Our fair is 3/1. On the tote you’re paid the closing price no matter when you bet, so you’re backing the horse, not a fixed price — the hold/shorten read above says how much of the edge is likely to survive to post.
Fair-value exotics ▾
Model-fair reference prices, not a +EV call. Exotics take ~20% off the top, so a pool is an overlay only when the tote's probable pays more than the fair return.
We flag it because the board (8/5) pays more than our fair price (3/2). Same horse, longer price.
The market
30%
Edge Card
40% +9 pts
▸ WIN BET · #8 to win · our fair 3/2, paid at the close
Likely bet downA short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post — pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.
Ranks #1 in our power figure blend. Even pace
Data · Brisnet
The model’s read ▾
This is the widest gap on today’s card. We make EMERGING MARKET a 40% shot in the 1 1/8 miles dirt, where the morning line — take stripped out — sits near 30%. When our number is 9 points clear of the board, that disagreement is the whole reason to be here.
On the figures it’s the one we rate highest in here, so a longer price reads as the market underrating it.
To play it: a straight win bet on #8. Our fair is 3/2. On the tote you’re paid the closing price no matter when you bet, so you’re backing the horse, not a fixed price — the hold/shorten read above says how much of the edge is likely to survive to post.
Fair-value exotics ▾
Model-fair reference prices, not a +EV call. Exotics take ~20% off the top, so a pool is an overlay only when the tote's probable pays more than the fair return.
Ticket
Cost
Hit
Fair return
After ~20%
Key exacta #8 / #2, #1 value
$2.00
15.3%
$13.04
$10.43
Keyed trifecta #8 / #2, #1 / #2, #1, #6, #4 value
$3.00
9.4%
$31.78
$25.42
Full field ▾
#
Horse
Model
Fair
Board
8
EMERGING MARKET ◀
40%
3/2
8/5
2
WYNSTOCK
12%
15/2
5/1
1
DREAMLIKE
11%
15/2
7/2
6
LE GRIS
9%
10/1
6/1
4
RESILIENCE
9%
10/1
6/1
3
WAITLIST
7%
15/1
12/1
7
PAROS
7%
15/1
15/1
5
GENERAL BANKER
5%
20/1
12/1
Race 8 · 1 1/16 miles · turf · OClm 100000n1xFlag
5PAIGE TURNER
Model
Fair
Board
13%
7/1
12/1
our win %
break-even
the morning line
We flag it because the board (12/1) pays more than our fair price (7/1). Same horse, longer price.
The market
6%
Edge Card
13% +7 pts
▸ WIN BET · #5 to win · our fair 7/1, paid at the close
Price should holdA long board price the late money tends to leave alone, so you should still get a strong number at post — the fullest version of the edge.
Ranks #2 in our power figure blend; closer in a contested-pace setup. Contested pace likely (4 early-speed types)
Data · Brisnet
The model’s read ▾
A price play. We give PAIGE TURNER about a 13% chance in the 1 1/16 miles turf — not likely on its own, but the board has it even longer, and a 7-point gap on a horse this price is where a payout actually lives.
It sits second on our power blend, close enough to the top that the price still looks generous.
The race sets up with contested early pace (4 speed types), and this one profiles to come from off it — we pushed its number up for that (×1.1).
To play it: a straight win bet on #5. Our fair is 7/1. On the tote you’re paid the closing price no matter when you bet, so you’re backing the horse, not a fixed price — the hold/shorten read above says how much of the edge is likely to survive to post.
Fair-value exotics ▾
Model-fair reference prices, not a +EV call. Exotics take ~20% off the top, so a pool is an overlay only when the tote's probable pays more than the fair return.
We flag it because the board (12/1) pays more than our fair price (8/1). Same horse, longer price.
The market
6%
Edge Card
11% +5 pts
▸ WIN BET · #3 to win · our fair 8/1, paid at the close
Price should holdA long board price the late money tends to leave alone, so you should still get a strong number at post — the fullest version of the edge.
Ranks #2 in our power figure blend. Contested pace likely (6 early-speed types)
Data · Brisnet
The model’s read ▾
A price play. We give TUTHILLTOWN about a 11% chance in the 5 1/2 furlongs turf — not likely on its own, but the board has it even longer, and a 5-point gap on a horse this price is where a payout actually lives.
Our figures put it just behind the field’s best — near enough that the board is leaving value on it.
The race sets up with contested early pace (6 speed types), a shape that tends to favor closers.
To play it: a straight win bet on #3. Our fair is 8/1. On the tote you’re paid the closing price no matter when you bet, so you’re backing the horse, not a fixed price — the hold/shorten read above says how much of the edge is likely to survive to post.
Fair-value exotics ▾
Model-fair reference prices, not a +EV call. Exotics take ~20% off the top, so a pool is an overlay only when the tote's probable pays more than the fair return.
Whole-card tickets keyed on our reads — a tight conviction build and a wider coverage build, singling the flags and spreading the open races. Reference construction, not a +EV call: the hit % assumes the legs are independent (v0 doesn’t model pace or scratches across races), and only the flagged legs are graded bets.
The rest of the card our read on every race — analysis, not a bet
R1Chalk7ELEVATED26%3/12/1
No edge on our top pick — the market has it priced about right.
Full field ▾
#
Horse
Model
Fair
Board
7
ELEVATED
26%
3/1
2/1
9
BADITTUDE
14%
6/1
9/2
6
HELP A GIRL OUT
13%
13/2
5/1
5
INTRAOSSEOUS
10%
9/1
8/1
1
TEXAS DANDELION
9%
10/1
6/1
3
MS LIU
9%
10/1
8/1
8
MYSTICIOUS
9%
10/1
8/1
2
LADY GIRVIN
5%
20/1
15/1
4
LUCERRA
5%
20/1
15/1
R2Lean7TIMIA22%7/23/1
Our top-rated horse. A small edge, under our bet line.
Full field ▾
#
Horse
Model
Fair
Board
7
TIMIA
22%
7/2
3/1
3
POWER OF WOMEN
21%
4/1
5/2
2
A. P. SLINGSHOT
16%
11/2
7/2
1
LADY WISDOM
13%
13/2
5/1
8
SUCCESSFUL AGENDA
8%
11/1
6/1
4
SABBY SUNSET
8%
12/1
12/1
6
SPIRIT OF ESTHER
6%
15/1
12/1
5
LADY DELILAH
5%
20/1
15/1
R3Scramble9GRAND YAUPON17%5/13/1
Wide-open heat; no separation we'd trust.
Full field ▾
#
Horse
Model
Fair
Board
9
GRAND YAUPON
17%
5/1
3/1
3
FERRUM
14%
6/1
9/2
6
FOOLIN
13%
13/2
5/1
1
BLACKJACK
12%
15/2
8/1
4
SILVERUS
11%
8/1
6/1
7
BACKLASH
9%
10/1
8/1
10
BELZONI
9%
11/1
8/1
8
GOLD ON BLACK
6%
15/1
12/1
5
CACTUS CLOSER
5%
20/1
15/1
2
WARRIOR AT HEART
5%
20/1
15/1
R5Lean10INSTABILITY27%5/25/2
Our top-rated horse. A small edge, under our bet line.
Full field ▾
#
Horse
Model
Fair
Board
10
INSTABILITY
27%
5/2
5/2
6
KING'S REMARK
12%
15/2
9/2
11
CHAMBERSVILLE
12%
15/2
6/1
5
GO GREY
8%
11/1
8/1
8
WOODS
8%
11/1
8/1
3
QUIET POWER
8%
12/1
10/1
7
CHICKEN DANCE
7%
12/1
15/1
2
SILENT IMPACT
7%
15/1
10/1
9
TIZ TROUBLE
6%
15/1
8/1
1
OMAHA STORM
3%
30/1
20/1
4
NUCK CHORRIS
2%
30/1
20/1
R7Scramble9OAT COUTOUR18%9/27/2
Wide-open heat; no separation we'd trust.
Full field ▾
#
Horse
Model
Fair
Board
9
OAT COUTOUR
18%
9/2
7/2
4
JACK'S WORLD
17%
5/1
3/1
5
SUPER DAVE
16%
11/2
9/2
8
SAMMY C NOTE
15%
11/2
6/1
7
CALVIN'S RIDE
12%
7/1
6/1
2
TWIRLING LAD
7%
15/1
8/1
10
WIT STORM
6%
15/1
15/1
1
GUILTY
5%
20/1
15/1
6
STORMY BIRTHDAY
3%
30/1
15/1
3
MISSIONATTHEGLEN
1%
50/1
30/1
R9Chalk8BUILT22%7/28/5
No edge on our top pick — the market has it priced about right.
Full field ▾
#
Horse
Model
Fair
Board
8
BUILT
22%
7/2
8/5
6
HYMN
16%
5/1
5/1
1
DAMON'S MOUND
15%
6/1
4/1
4
JUST BEAT THE ODDS
13%
13/2
9/2
2
CRAZY MASON
12%
7/1
8/1
7
T KRAFT
10%
9/1
8/1
3
CAT ON TIME
6%
15/1
15/1
5
NUTELLA FELLA
5%
20/1
15/1
R10Chalk6ALWAYS A RUNNER28%5/29/5
No edge on our top pick — the market has it priced about right.
Full field ▾
#
Horse
Model
Fair
Board
6
ALWAYS A RUNNER
28%
5/2
9/5
1
COUNTING STARS
22%
7/2
2/1
8
ZANY
15%
6/1
9/2
7
DIRECTIVE
10%
9/1
6/1
3
LA RASCASSE
10%
9/1
8/1
2
DANDONA
5%
20/1
20/1
5
MEASURE
4%
25/1
15/1
9
NYCON
4%
25/1
30/1
4
MISS FULTON GAL
3%
30/1
30/1
R12Lean7LEAVE ME30%5/22/1
Our top-rated horse. A small edge, under our bet line.
Full field ▾
#
Horse
Model
Fair
Board
7
LEAVE ME
30%
5/2
2/1
5
LOBBYIST
14%
13/2
3/1
10
FOTO
11%
8/1
8/1
9
KULEANA
10%
9/1
8/1
1
DINGHY BAR
10%
9/1
12/1
2
BIG FAT GOALIE
9%
11/1
8/1
4
GILBANE
7%
15/1
6/1
6
DRAYDEN
5%
20/1
15/1
3
FOLLOWILL
4%
25/1
15/1
8
ZIP FOR RICK
2%
50/1
50/1
Edge Card
Quantitative horse-racing analysis for adults. You must be 18 or older (21+ where required by your state) to enter.