Saratoga — Thu Jul 23, 2026

Saratoga · 9 races · published 4:15 AM ET · card locked

4 value plays today · 6 races we're passing

Edge of the Day

5CELTIC DAWN

Race 7 · 1 1/16 miles turf

32%model2/1fair7/2boardWINpaid at the close

Our biggest edge on the card today (+10 pts over the board) — the crowd will likely bet it down, so expect a shorter number — size it smaller. Chosen by rule: the flag with the most value, graded like any other.

Public record7–8flags, W–L+11.0uflat-$2+36.7%flat-bet ROI, n=15every call hash-stamped before post →

We lose most single flags — that’s expected. The edge is price: when we’re right, the board paid more than fair. Our 30% picks win about 30% (see the calibration curve), and every call is graded against the closing odds — wins and losses.

No set price. On the tote you’re paid the closing odds, so the edge isn’t a line you beat early — it’s the gap between our fair number and where the crowd lands. We grade each flag against the actual close.

Our last miss: DMR R7 Centrodelantero, flagged at 4/1, didn’t win — on the record like every call.

Today at SaratogaMostly Clear, 53°F, wind 1 mph · rain 0% — no off-track flagNWS forecast

How this card is made & how to verify it

Edge Card v0 is a transparent heuristic, not a trained model: Prime-Power softmax blended 65/35 with the de-vigged morning line, plus published rules-based pace and trainer-form adjustments (the trainer angle is used as a model input; the raw figure is never published). Constants on the methodology page. Structured analysis, not proven edge; tracked publicly either way.

It reads Brisnet figures, pace, and trainer form — not jockey, trip, or track bias yet; those arrive with the trained v1 model. The trainer angle is used as a model input only; we never publish the raw figure. Fair odds are 1 ÷ our win probability.

The hold/shorten read on each flag is an early signal from its committed board price — long-priced flags the crowd leaves alone tend to hold, short ones get bet down. It’s a heuristic on a small sample; every call is graded on the record.

Model v0-heuristic-1.4 · cfg aab788cb · code 107bc986 · takeout (SAR) win 16% / exacta 18.5% · card SHA-256 834825237f68… · Scratches as of 4:00 AM ET. Late scratches void at scoring; the card is never edited.

Flags 4 of 9 races

New here? How to read a flag

Model: Our estimated win chance for the horse.
Fair: The odds that chance implies — the price where a bet breaks even.
Board: The morning line, the track's early guess at the odds.
Win bet: Bet the horse to win. Pari-mutuel pays the closing price no matter when you bet, so you're backing the horse, not a fixed price.
Hold / bet down: Whether the price should stay long or get bet down by post — how much of the edge is likely to survive.
The rest of the card: Most races. We still show our top pick and a read on it, but there's no overlay worth a bet.

Odds note: 7/2 is the same as +350.

Race 1 · 7 furlongs · dirt · Md 35000Flag

3BOUNDING ALONG

Model

Fair

Board

26%

3/1

9/2

our win %

break-even

the morning line

We flag it because the board (9/2) pays more than our fair price (3/1). Same horse, longer price.

The market

18%

Edge Card

26% +8 pts

▸ WIN BET · #3 to win · our fair 3/1, paid at the close

Likely bet down A short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post — pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend; closer in a contested-pace setup. Contested pace likely (3 early-speed types)

Data · Brisnet

The model’s read ▾

We make BOUNDING ALONG a 26% chance in the 7 furlongs dirt; the line implies about 18%, and that 8-point gap over the board is the flag.

Our power-rating blend makes it the best of this field — which is why the board’s price looks a step generous.

The race sets up with contested early pace (3 speed types), and this one profiles to come from off it — we pushed its number up for that (×1.1).

To play it: a straight win bet on #3. Our fair is 3/1. On the tote you’re paid the closing price no matter when you bet, so you’re backing the horse, not a fixed price — the hold/shorten read above says how much of the edge is likely to survive to post.

Fair-value exotics ▾

Model-fair reference prices, not a +EV call. Exotics take ~20% off the top, so a pool is an overlay only when the tote's probable pays more than the fair return.

Ticket	Cost	Hit	Fair return	After ~20%
Key exacta #3 / #2, #9 value	$2.00	13.4%	$14.97	$11.98
Keyed trifecta #3 / #2, #9 / #2, #9, #6, #5 value	$3.00	9.8%	$30.59	$24.47

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
3	BOUNDING ALONG ◀	26%	3/1	7/2
2	KEY ACTRESS	23%	7/2	5/2
9	AUTHENTIC BEAUTY	15%	11/2	3/1
6	RUN ON STATES	11%	8/1	5/1
5	CREDIT RISK	10%	9/1	8/1
7	NOISETOMAKENOISE	5%	20/1	10/1
1	THAT'S AMORE	4%	25/1	20/1
8	MAIZEY BLUE	4%	25/1	15/1
4	GOLDEN MIRACLE	2%	50/1	30/1

Race 4 · 1 1/8 miles · turf · OClm 110000bFlag

2SPIRIT OF ST LOUIS

Model

Fair

Board

33%

2/1

3/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

We flag it because the board (3/1) pays more than our fair price (2/1). Same horse, longer price.

The market

26%

Edge Card

33% +7 pts

▸ WIN BET · #2 to win · our fair 2/1, paid at the close

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend; closer in a contested-pace setup. Contested pace likely (3 early-speed types)

Data · Brisnet

The model’s read ▾

SPIRIT OF ST LOUIS is one of the more likely winners we flag today — a 33% chance in the 1 1/8 miles turf the board still prices like a longer shot (about 26% once you strip the take). The gap is smaller in points (7) but it’s on a horse we genuinely rate to win.

Our power-rating blend makes it the best of this field — which is why the board’s price looks a step generous.

The race sets up with contested early pace (3 speed types), a shape that tends to favor closers.

To play it: a straight win bet on #2. Our fair is 2/1. On the tote you’re paid the closing price no matter when you bet, so you’re backing the horse, not a fixed price — the hold/shorten read above says how much of the edge is likely to survive to post.

Fair-value exotics ▾

Model-fair reference prices, not a +EV call. Exotics take ~20% off the top, so a pool is an overlay only when the tote's probable pays more than the fair return.

Ticket	Cost	Hit	Fair return	After ~20%
Key exacta #2 / #5, #7 value	$2.00	19.3%	$10.34	$8.27
Keyed trifecta #2 / #5, #7 / #5, #7, #1, #6 value	$3.00	13.6%	$22.02	$17.62

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
2	SPIRIT OF ST LOUIS ◀	33%	2/1	2/1
5	SALAMIS	29%	5/2	5/2
7	SAND PIPES	10%	9/1	4/1
1	BRITAIN'S KITTEN	8%	11/1	6/1
6	SEA SINGER	8%	12/1	10/1
3	BOURBON DAY	7%	12/1	8/1
4	CAPTURE THE FLAG	5%	20/1	8/1

Race 4 · 1 1/8 miles · turf · OClm 110000bFlag

5SALAMIS

Model

Fair

Board

29%

5/2

7/2

our win %

break-even

the morning line

We flag it because the board (7/2) pays more than our fair price (5/2). Same horse, longer price.

The market

22%

Edge Card

29% +6 pts

▸ WIN BET · #5 to win · our fair 5/2, paid at the close

Ranks #2 in our power figure blend; closer in a contested-pace setup. Contested pace likely (3 early-speed types)

Data · Brisnet

The model’s read ▾

SALAMIS is one of the more likely winners we flag today — a 29% chance in the 1 1/8 miles turf the board still prices like a longer shot (about 22% once you strip the take). The gap is smaller in points (6) but it’s on a horse we genuinely rate to win.

It sits second on our power blend, close enough to the top that the price still looks generous.

The race sets up with contested early pace (3 speed types), and this one profiles to come from off it — we pushed its number up for that (×1.1).

To play it: a straight win bet on #5. Our fair is 5/2. On the tote you’re paid the closing price no matter when you bet, so you’re backing the horse, not a fixed price — the hold/shorten read above says how much of the edge is likely to survive to post.

Fair-value exotics ▾

Model-fair reference prices, not a +EV call. Exotics take ~20% off the top, so a pool is an overlay only when the tote's probable pays more than the fair return.

Ticket	Cost	Hit	Fair return	After ~20%
Key exacta #5 / #2, #7 value	$2.00	17.5%	$11.44	$9.15
Keyed trifecta #5 / #2, #7 / #2, #7, #1, #6 value	$3.00	12.3%	$24.34	$19.47

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
2	SPIRIT OF ST LOUIS	33%	2/1	2/1
5	SALAMIS ◀	29%	5/2	5/2
7	SAND PIPES	10%	9/1	4/1
1	BRITAIN'S KITTEN	8%	11/1	6/1
6	SEA SINGER	8%	12/1	10/1
3	BOURBON DAY	7%	12/1	8/1
4	CAPTURE THE FLAG	5%	20/1	8/1

Race 7 · 1 1/16 miles · turf · SuziOCainB200kFlag

5CELTIC DAWN

Model

Fair

Board

32%

2/1

7/2

our win %

break-even

the morning line

We flag it because the board (7/2) pays more than our fair price (2/1). Same horse, longer price.

The market

22%

Edge Card

32% +10 pts

▸ WIN BET · #5 to win · our fair 2/1, paid at the close

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend. Even pace

Data · Brisnet

The model’s read ▾

This is the widest gap on today’s card. We make CELTIC DAWN a 32% shot in the 1 1/16 miles turf, where the morning line — take stripped out — sits near 22%. When our number is 10 points clear of the board, that disagreement is the whole reason to be here.

Our power-rating blend makes it the best of this field — which is why the board’s price looks a step generous.

To play it: a straight win bet on #5. Our fair is 2/1. On the tote you’re paid the closing price no matter when you bet, so you’re backing the horse, not a fixed price — the hold/shorten read above says how much of the edge is likely to survive to post.

Fair-value exotics ▾

Model-fair reference prices, not a +EV call. Exotics take ~20% off the top, so a pool is an overlay only when the tote's probable pays more than the fair return.

Ticket	Cost	Hit	Fair return	After ~20%
Key exacta #5 / #3, #6 value	$2.00	16.8%	$11.88	$9.50
Keyed trifecta #5 / #3, #6 / #3, #6, #8, #4 value	$3.00	11.7%	$25.74	$20.59

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
5	CELTIC DAWN ◀	32%	2/1	5/2
3	ALL OF IT	22%	7/2	8/5
6	NESHIKA	13%	13/2	5/1
8	CONSIDERATE CITY	9%	10/1	8/1
4	ENCANTAR	8%	11/1	10/1
1	NEW YORK SPECIAL	7%	12/1	8/1
7	COSMIC CANDY GIRL	4%	20/1	15/1
2	COACH OF THE YEAR	3%	30/1	15/1

Multi-race tickets the whole card, keyed on our reads

Late Pick 4 (R6–R9)

Build	Cost	Hit	Fair return	After ~20%
Conviction	$1.00	0.57%	$175.83	$140.66
R6 #1 · R7 #5 · R8 #2, #1 · R9 #3
Coverage	$8.00	2.61%	$305.94	$244.75
R6 #1, #10 · R7 #5 · R8 #2, #1, #4, #6 · R9 #3, #7

Late Pick 5 (R5–R9)

Build	Cost	Hit	Fair return	After ~20%
Conviction	$1.00	0.14%	$701.08	$560.86
R5 #9 · R6 #1 · R7 #5 · R8 #2, #1 · R9 #3
Coverage	$16.00	1.13%	$1417.06	$1133.65
R5 #9, #4 · R6 #1, #10 · R7 #5 · R8 #2, #1, #4, #6 · R9 #3, #7

Early Pick 5 (R1–R5)

Build	Cost	Hit	Fair return	After ~20%
Conviction	$1.00	0.12%	$858.69	$686.95
R1 #3 · R2 #5 · R3 #3, #1 · R4 #5 · R5 #9
Coverage	$8.00	0.63%	$1260.37	$1008.30
R1 #3 · R2 #5, #2 · R3 #3, #1, #5, #9 · R4 #5 · R5 #9, #4

Pick 6 (R4–R9)

Build	Cost	Hit	Fair return	After ~20%
Conviction	$0.40	0.04%	$970.68	$776.54
R4 #5 · R5 #9 · R6 #1 · R7 #5 · R8 #2, #1 · R9 #3
Coverage	$6.40	0.33%	$1962.01	$1569.61
R4 #5 · R5 #9, #4 · R6 #1, #10 · R7 #5 · R8 #2, #1, #4, #6 · R9 #3, #7

Rolling Pick 3 (R1–R3)

Build	Cost	Hit	Fair return	After ~20%
Conviction	$1.00	1.61%	$62.22	$49.78
R1 #3 · R2 #5 · R3 #3, #1
Coverage	$4.00	5.09%	$78.61	$62.89
R1 #3 · R2 #5, #2 · R3 #3, #1, #5, #9

Rolling Pick 3 (R2–R4)

Build	Cost	Hit	Fair return	After ~20%
Conviction	$1.00	1.79%	$55.78	$44.62
R2 #5 · R3 #3, #1 · R4 #5
Coverage	$4.00	5.68%	$70.48	$56.38
R2 #5, #2 · R3 #3, #1, #5, #9 · R4 #5

Whole-card tickets keyed on our reads — a tight conviction build and a wider coverage build, singling the flags and spreading the open races. Reference construction, not a +EV call: the hit % assumes the legs are independent (v0 doesn’t model pace or scratches across races), and only the flagged legs are graded bets.

The rest of the card our read on every race — analysis, not a bet

R2Lean5BLAST FURNACE22%7/23/1

Our top-rated horse. A small edge, under our bet line.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
5	BLAST FURNACE	22%	7/2	3/1
2	MAXIMUM PROMISE	15%	11/2	7/2
3	LIGHT FANTASTIC	14%	13/2	6/1
8	GUN BARREL CITY	13%	13/2	5/1
6	SHANGRALA ROAD	10%	9/1	8/1
9	IN THE DARK	8%	12/1	6/1
1	MADAGASCAR	7%	12/1	10/1
4	TOUGH CRITIC	7%	15/1	12/1
7	MIDDLE MARKET	5%	20/1	12/1

R3Scramble3NORWICH14%6/15/2

Wide-open heat; no separation we'd trust.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
3	NORWICH	14%	6/1	5/2
1	NORMANDY COAST	14%	6/1	4/1
5	QUIET WISDOM	13%	7/1	6/1
9	HEY TOBY	12%	15/2	6/1
7	MR SKYLIGHT	12%	15/2	8/1
8	SHERIFF BIANCO	11%	15/2	6/1
2	RIYADH MOON	9%	11/1	12/1
4	DOT'S DOLLAR	8%	11/1	12/1
6	FIFTY CENT DOLLARS	7%	15/1	10/1

R5Lean9SIDE QUEST25%3/13/1

Our top-rated horse. A small edge, under our bet line.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
9	SIDE QUEST	25%	3/1	3/1
4	CADILLAC MARY	18%	9/2	7/2
1	CODY'S APPROVAL	14%	6/1	9/2
3	SPLIT THE BLANKET	11%	8/1	6/1
2	QUOTED	11%	8/1	6/1
6	ALL SHOW	7%	15/1	10/1
8	EARLY AND OFTEN	5%	20/1	15/1
5	BY GRACE	4%	25/1	12/1
7	MISS MONEY PANTS	3%	30/1	20/1
10	SAINT DYMPHNA	3%	30/1	15/1

R6Chalk1ANCIENT WORLD22%7/28/5

No edge on our top pick — the market has it priced about right.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
1	ANCIENT WORLD	22%	7/2	8/5
10	TAPWRITS TEMPER	12%	15/2	8/1
9	SCHLOMO	12%	15/2	5/1
4	NANTZ	10%	9/1	8/1
2	LIBERTY RISING	9%	10/1	6/1
8	EXECUTIVE ORDER	9%	10/1	12/1
5	THREE LITTLE BIRDS	8%	12/1	12/1
6	OTTO NIPOTI	7%	12/1	15/1
7	EPITAPH	6%	15/1	12/1
3	CATCH A TIGER	5%	20/1	15/1

R8Scramble2SENZA PAROLE18%9/25/2

Wide-open heat; no separation we'd trust.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
2	SENZA PAROLE	18%	9/2	5/2
1	MUNNINGS EXPRESS	18%	9/2	7/2
4	BEAUTY REIGNS	15%	11/2	7/2
6	QUEEN'S MARTINI	12%	15/2	8/1
7	REPUTATION	11%	9/1	6/1
3	AUTUMN EVENING	9%	10/1	10/1
5	DAZZLING MOVE	9%	10/1	10/1
8	BEYOND BELIEF	8%	12/1	8/1

R9Lean3MIDTOWN MISCHIEF22%7/27/2

Our top-rated horse. A small edge, under our bet line.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
3	MIDTOWN MISCHIEF	22%	7/2	7/2
7	GARDEN OF GRACE	16%	11/2	4/1
1	BLUE AUTHENTICITY	14%	13/2	9/2
4	AVERY'S WONDERLAND	12%	15/2	5/1
6	YOU KNOW BETTER	9%	10/1	8/1
10	ANNA BROCKNANA	8%	11/1	6/1
8	STELLA FORTUNA	8%	12/1	15/1
9	MISCHIEVOUS JO	5%	20/1	12/1
5	DANCING MIRACLE	3%	30/1	20/1
11	SPIRIT FORWARD	2%	50/1	20/1
2	BANK ON BEBE	1%	99/1	30/1