Saratoga — Sun Jul 19, 2026
How this card is made & how to verify it
Edge Card v0 is a transparent heuristic, not a trained model: Prime-Power softmax blended 65/35 with the de-vigged morning line, plus published rules-based pace and trainer-form adjustments (the trainer angle is used as a model input; the raw figure is never published). Constants on the methodology page. Structured analysis, not proven edge; tracked publicly either way.
It reads Brisnet figures, pace, and trainer form — not jockey, trip, or track bias yet; those arrive with the trained v1 model. The trainer angle is used as a model input only; we never publish the raw figure. Fair odds are 1 ÷ our win probability.
The hold/shorten read on each flag is an early signal from its committed board price — long-priced flags the crowd leaves alone tend to hold, short ones get bet down. It’s a heuristic on a small sample; every call is graded on the record.
New here? How to read a flag
- Model
- Our estimated win chance for the horse.
- Fair
- The odds that chance implies — the price where a bet breaks even.
- Board
- The morning line, the track's early guess at the odds.
- Play at X or better
- Only bet if you can get that price or longer. The edge is in the price.
- Pass
- Most races. Our number agrees with the board, so there's nothing to bet.
The model’s read ▾
A price play to start Saratoga. We give American Grant about a 14% chance in the mile-and-an-eighth dirt claimer — not the likeliest winner, but the board has it longer than we do, and an eight-point gap on a route horse this price is where a payout lives. Second on our figures, near enough the top that the odds look generous.
Fair is 6/1; the number to demand is 7/1 or better. It's a long price the crowd tends to leave alone, so it should still be there at post — a swing, one unit, no chasing it short.
Fair-value exotics ▾
| Ticket | Our prob | Fair $2 payoff |
|---|---|---|
| Exacta #4–#7 | 3.9% | $51.79 |
| #4 over #7, #6, #3 | 9.2% | $21.83 |
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | CURVINO | 24% | 3/1 | 9/5 |
| 6 | STURDY | 23% | 7/2 | 7/5 |
| 4 | AMERICAN GRANT ◀ | 14% | 6/1 | 12/1 |
| 3 | MCDIESEL | 10% | 9/1 | 6/1 |
| 1 | THORSNESS | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 |
| 2 | AIRBORNE ELITE | 9% | 10/1 | 12/1 |
| 5 | NATURAL HUNK | 7% | 15/1 | 15/1 |
| 8 | NOTFANUTIN | 5% | 20/1 | 30/1 |
The model’s read ▾
A closer with the pace on its side. Emergency Nine is a maiden in the five-and-a-half turf, and the race sets up contested — three early types who'll be busy with each other — while this one runs late. We raised its number for that shape. Our 17% sits eight points over the board.
Fair 5/1, play 11/2 or better. It's a long enough price that the money should leave it alone into post, so the value ought to survive. The risk is the plain one for a closer: if the speed doesn't cook and someone steals an easy lead, it's running for second. A unit at the price.
Fair-value exotics ▾
| Ticket | Our prob | Fair $2 payoff |
|---|---|---|
| Exacta #2–#12 | 4.1% | $48.56 |
| #2 over #12, #10, #5 | 9.5% | $21.03 |
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | WAITIN'ONAPROMISE | 21% | 4/1 | 3/1 |
| 2 | EMERGENCY NINE ◀ | 17% | 5/1 | 8/1 |
| 10 | TICKET TO RIDE | 14% | 13/2 | 7/2 |
| 5 | RAYNHAM HALL | 13% | 13/2 | 8/1 |
| 9 | FOREVER TO GO | 8% | 11/1 | 6/1 |
| 8 | ALL BRIGHT | 7% | 12/1 | 10/1 |
| 1 | IWOKEUPLIKETHIS | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 |
| 3 | MONTEVERTINE | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 |
| 11 | MIZTY FOG | 4% | 25/1 | 15/1 |
| 6 | DREAMY GIRL | 3% | 30/1 | 15/1 |
| 4 | FROGHOLLOWSUMMER | 3% | 30/1 | 15/1 |
| 7 | BATTLE RIFLE | 1% | 99/1 | 50/1 |
The model’s read ▾
The widest gap on either card today, and the one to circle. We make Hot Gossip a 21% chance in the one-mile dirt allowance-claimer — twelve and a half points clear of the board — and it's clean: tops our figures, even pace, nothing loose on the lead to complicate it. When our number is this far off the market on a horse we rate best in the race, that's the whole reason to be here.
Fair 7/2, play 4/1 or better. And the durability read likes it — a price the crowd tends to leave alone, so it should still be live at post. Our best number of the day.
Fair-value exotics ▾
| Ticket | Our prob | Fair $2 payoff |
|---|---|---|
| Exacta #5–#2 | 4.9% | $40.84 |
| #5 over #2, #8, #4 | 13% | $15.35 |
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | HOT GOSSIP ◀ | 21% | 7/2 | 8/1 |
| 2 | SPITFIRE | 18% | 9/2 | 2/1 |
| 8 | SPARKLING MAMA | 15% | 11/2 | 5/1 |
| 4 | KILLA SALLY | 15% | 6/1 | 3/1 |
| 6 | UBIQUE | 12% | 7/1 | 5/1 |
| 1 | CELESTIAL BODY | 7% | 12/1 | 15/1 |
| 7 | UR DESIRE | 6% | 15/1 | 8/1 |
| 3 | QUALITY OF ESSENCE | 4% | 20/1 | 12/1 |
The model’s read ▾
A longshot to close our Saratoga card. We give Pelican Pride about a 16% chance in the mile-and-a-sixteenth turf maiden, a seven-point edge on a horse the board has written longer. It sits second on our figures, close enough to the top that the price reads generous.
Fair 11/2, play 6/1 or better. A maiden route, so the form is thin and a green trip is the real risk — but it's a long price that should hold to post, so a unit at the number is worth the swing.
Fair-value exotics ▾
| Ticket | Our prob | Fair $2 payoff |
|---|---|---|
| Exacta #12–#1 | 4.1% | $48.59 |
| #12 over #1, #3, #7 | 8.9% | $22.45 |
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FACTORY SETTING | 22% | 7/2 | 3/1 |
| 12 | PELICAN PRIDE ◀ | 16% | 11/2 | 8/1 |
| 3 | AMAZING GRACER | 14% | 13/2 | 4/1 |
| 7 | OKAY ANNIE | 12% | 15/2 | 5/1 |
| 6 | NO TIDE | 8% | 12/1 | 10/1 |
| 10 | GANDERELLA | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 |
| 9 | RIZZ | 5% | 15/1 | 8/1 |
| 2 | LITTLE FINCH | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 |
| 8 | SARATOGA DAISY | 5% | 20/1 | 12/1 |
| 11 | AXIS POINT | 4% | 25/1 | 20/1 |
| 4 | ADROIT | 3% | 30/1 | 30/1 |
| 5 | MAGIC IN MY EYES | 1% | 50/1 | 20/1 |